Sarah Palin- A heavy favorite right now mainly because of this poll at Rasmussen showing her way out in front. She might, however, lose steam as moderate Republicans (If there are any left) think about her positions on issues that are important to them. She is truly a dream candidate for President- Elect Obama SHOT AT WINNING: 2% (major scandal)
Mitt Romney - If the Republican party keeps its tradition of nominating the loser from the 1st time, Romney might have a tight race with Huckabee, as news organizations are split over who had more delegates at the end of the campaign season. A fake conservative, if he runs to the center he could have say a better chance than most of the rest. SHOT AT WINNING: 25 %
Rudy Giuliani Giuliani is probably the Republicans best hope due to being one of the very few remaining moderate Republicans. Luckily, the Republicans don't seem to realize that Giuliani is there best hope. He has already pretty much announced his candidacy by launching the website JoinRudy2012.com , which is the exact same site as JoinRudy2008.com except that the title says Join Rudy 2012. SHOT AT WINNING: 30%
Mike Huckabee Huckabee is a conservative but is likeable nonetheless. He has, however, flip-flopped on the death penalty at least twice. He has a sense of humor. He is probably less of a danger than Romney, who can self-fund, but more of one than Sarah Palin, because he seems much more genuine than Sarah. SHOT AT WINNING: 15%
Charlie Crist Crist is a true moderate who may well run in 2012. Crist is a minority, which should help him. Crist would be the 2nd best candidate, who could actually have a fair shot at beating Obama by taking away FL, NM, NV??? and CO leaving Obama dangerously with just VA and Iowa, but that would be enough to save him and its hard to see how Crist helps there. SHOT AT WINNING: 30%
Other people: McCain, F. Thompson, Brownback, Tancredo, Lieberman, Jindal Ed Rendell or Hillary could challenge Obama in 2012 but it's a long shot.
SWING STATES (won by less than 10%- from Electoral-vote.com) Obama won:
Florida- 2%- Crist or Giuliani could flip it, but looks safe otherwise Ohio- 4%- Looks like a pretty safe state for a swing state
Indiana- 1%- Obama will likely lose it against all but Palin
North Carolina- 1%- Obama has a 50-50 bet of keeping it.
Virginia- 6%- Safe, unless a southerner gets nominated
Colorado- 8%- Crist might take it away but that's it
New Hampshire- 9%- Only McCain could've made NH close
Iowa- 9%- Iowa loves Obama a lot, no way it's going
Minnesota- 10%- RNC was held there, only got within 10 %
McCain won:
Missouri- 0%- The greatest toss-up of them all and the only one to go to McCain.50-50 in '12
Montana- 3%- Montana is turning purple!!! one more cycle might just push it over the top.
Georgia- 5%- Chambliss vs Martin will make me decide what our chances are here
The Dakotas- 8%- Why are there even 2? North has 20% flip chance, South has 10%
Arizona- 9%- It was McCain's home state. Good chance here
South Carolina-9%- Barring a landslide, no