Another Vulnerable NOVA Republican: Tim Hugo?

By: Lowell
Published On: 11/9/2008 2:30:09 PM

We've already looked at the presidential election results in the 42nd (Dave Albo) and 86th (Thomas Davis Rust) House of Delegates districts.  In both cases, John McCain got walloped by Barack Obama, implying that these districts' delegates are potentially vulnerable to strong Democratic challengers next year. Now, what about the 40th HoD district of Tim Hugo?

Barack Obama: 16,876 votes (52%)
John McCain: 15,308 votes (48%)

It was close, but in the end Obama prevailed. So, who's going to take on Tim Hugo next year? (last time around, the Democratic nominee was Rex Simmons, who lost 57%-43%).

Note: These figures do not include absentee or provisional ballots. If anything, including those would probably make matters even worse for McCain (and Hugo).

P.S. Obviously, we're not going to get even close to the turnout next year that we got in 2008.  All I'm saying here is that districts like Hugo's are POTENTIALLY vulnerable if Democrats run strong candidates. No, this isn't rocket science, but nonetheless I think it's worth reminding people.


Comments



Look at 42 (Mark - 11/9/2008 3:37:36 PM)
Rob Bell, although he has $400k, is now in a vulnerable district.

Waldo:

http://waldo.jaquith.org/blog/...

We are also looking at 59, with the absolutely horrible Watkins Abbitt. Remember my blog in the next few months/1 year.



Almost Right (Scott Surovell - 11/9/2008 3:39:41 PM)
Waldo is leaving out the absentees which were 2-1 Democratic.


Another interesting one is Bob Marshall's district (Lowell - 11/9/2008 3:48:23 PM)
The 13th went 50.3% for Obama, 49.7% for McCain. Tough, but possible...


Just a few points about Bell (aznew - 11/9/2008 3:54:49 PM)
I believe it's the 58th, not the 42nd, but I'm not sure on that.

Also, it is somewhat deceptive to base this on Perriello v. Goode. Most of the District is Albemarle, which is Tom's home, and he crushed there in part as a favorite son.

In fact, Obama lost the district to McCain (excluding absentees 19,656 (51.6%) -18,456 (48.4%).

That said, Bell typically runs unopposed, and these numbers at a minimum suggest it is worth challenging him.

But it is premature to call this a vulnerable district.

P.S. It is certainly more vulnerable if Creigh Deeds wins the Democratic nomination. Having a local guy running for Governor will get Democrats in the area really pumped.



You are correct (Mark - 11/9/2008 4:19:34 PM)
58 it is. I was looking at his Dave Albo Story as well....


58th (uva08 - 11/9/2008 9:07:25 PM)
Supervisor David Slutzky is apparently considering making a run for the the 58th.  Slutzsky has a lot of fire and would make this an interesting race.


DUDE. Tim Hugo (RenaRF - 11/9/2008 5:32:50 PM)
spoke at a conference I attended two weekends before the election.  He was a representative from the McCain Campaign (there was one for Obama also) on a panel to discuss how each Campaign envisioned the use of technology as a part of any eventual Administration (I work in IT - that was the nature of the conference).

He REPEATEDLY went back to socialism and taxes and how Obama was evil and would crush IT with taxes.  That was NOT the stated intent of the panel, and he repeatedly went back there.  It was ridiculous.

I'll see if I can find a transcript/video.



Video would be awesome! (Lowell - 11/9/2008 5:49:23 PM)
Thanks.


Another note (Populista - 11/9/2008 5:58:33 PM)
I was looking through the results of the Senate and Presidential election by CD.

Warner won every single CD in the state.

Obama won all the heavily Democratic ones + 11th, 2nd, 10th and 4th. The  4th really impressed me. Warner also won huge there.

Andrea Miller raised only $48,073 bucks vs Forbes' $637,688. Feder raised $1,930,607 compared to Wolf's $1,877,504.

And yet Andrea Miller was closer to winning.

I think the 4th in prime for pickup. Does anyone know of a candidate who might be able to make that more of a race?  Who are our Dems in the district? Help me out local folks.



Maybe (legacyofmarshall - 11/9/2008 6:47:28 PM)
The 4th has a large African-American population, but not enough to put it over the top with a Democrat.  Suburbanites around Richmond and Hampton Roads in the 4th are every so slowly inching towards Democrats.  Perhaps a really really good candidate could win.  Those who live there that I'm aware of...

1. Steve Herretick - who ran a good but impossible race against Quayle for senate.

2. The Petersburg crowd - African American Women mainly.  Perhaps some have more name recognition than Andrea Miller, but if she couldn't do it in '08...

3. Laurel Snode - a personal friend of mine and good Dem from Chester that I solidly maintain should run for office.

Overall, however, Forbes is viewed well in his district, just like Wolf in the 10th.  Both are more D than say the 7th or 6th (the 10th is more D than the 2nd or 5th) but the incumbent is just too strong.  DOESN'T MEAN WE SHOULDN'T PUT UP A FIGHT!  I'm a firm believer in always fielding a candidate and think we should have 100 House of Delegates candidates in '09, but that doesn't mean all Dems have a shot at winning.  Just giving people the choice, that's what Democracy is about



Obama lost (Populista - 11/9/2008 8:19:38 PM)
the 5th but won the 4th. Warner won with 62 percent. We should be able to win that district.

And he may not be a Goode type but he did worse then Wolf running vs a opponent that didn't run a serious campaign. At the very least we should put up a fight.

How about Roslyn Tyler?