Is a Democratic Wave Inevitable?

By: Teddy
Published On: 11/7/2008 1:12:51 PM

Once we have savored Barack Obama's victory and the general Democratic tilt to the elections,  was the Democratic wave inevitable? Will it continue?  How about Virginia?  Peter Brodnitz of the Benenson Strategy Group, who is Governor Kaine's pollster, speaking at the November Northern Virginia Democratic Business Council's November breakfast says, "No."  Neither the Obama victory nor a future Democratic wave can be considered as inevitable in Virginia especially, for several reasons.  

True, Obama won in Virginia, said Brodnitz,  mainly because of his remarkably efficient, professionally run campaign with offices all across the state, whereas the Kerry campaign four years before had zero professional staff and almost no presence in the Commonwealth, but there was far more to his success than that. Back in the days of Don Beyer, for example,  the Democratic Party wrote off vast swathes of Virginia, did not compete, and basically had no statewide presence, much less the ability to mount an aggressive state-wide campaign. That has changed, thanks largely to Governor Kaine's state-wide efforts to re-build the Democratic Party in every area. Significantly, says Brodnitz, Virginia itself has changed demographically over the past four years; it is much more diverse, and now is almost a microcosm of the United States as a whole: fifty percent of Virginia's population today is suburban, and fifty percent of the United States' population is suburban. Suburban-type areas now reach beyond Alexandria-Arlington-Fairfax into Prince William and Loudoun Counties, and beyond---- do not, for example, overlook the enormous changes occurring in Norfolk as well.  Nevertheless,  Virginia's demographics can still be difficult for Democrats, partly because of a heavy military and retired military component that tends to be Republican-oriented.  Virginia is also a "church-going" state as a whole in the Southern tradition, and this contingent votes, usually conservatively. Great Democratic leadership by Mark Warner and Tim Kaine has overcome these factors, running campaigns on policies of fiscal responsibility and governing in a pragmatic, problem-solving and bipartisan way, rather than emphasizing ideology. This fitted perfectly with Obama's campaign, so Virginia voters recognized the themes.

Katrina opened the eyes of Americans, who suddenly realized that the Republicans simply had no interest in providing competent government because they were totally ideological, whereas Democrats were plain and simple problem-solvers---- exactly the message Virginians had been hearing from Mark Warner and Tim Kaine all along, and then from Obama during the presidential campaign. The Wall Street meltdown and bailout was like Katrina; it made Obama's message understandable. Ninety percent of the 2008 vote in Virginia, according to Brodnitz, was driven by the perception that McCain was equivalent to Bush III.

During questions, some one pointed out that in the 2000 Democratic primary about 100,000 voted statewide; in 2008 it jumped to 1,000,000., but how many of these new voters will stick with the Democrats or even stay in the political process next year or beyond? Even with the Democratic strength in Northern Virginia, Republican Ellmere actually carried the Springield Magisterial District. In the 10th Congressional District Democrat Feder lost to Frank Wolf by an even greater margin than the last time.  Structurally,said Brodnitz, the Democratic loss was due not only to the fact that people simply seemed to like Frank Wolf, but also to the fact that the media did not really cover the race in any significant way.  Since Feder was not known in at least 40 percent of the area, it was hard to get her message out and introduce her adequately.  Once Wolf leaves, there is nothing in the demographics of the 10th District that precludes a Democrat from winning.  The hard truth is that Democrats everywhere cannot relax and rest on the Obama victory. Now they must govern as pragmatic problem solvers and work hard to hold the new coalition together.

For Fairfax County, Scott Surovell presented some election statistics:
8th  CD Obama: 233,976 or 62.32 % of the total vote; Democratic margin 134,007
10th CD Obama: 193,608 or 52.50 % of the total vote; Democratic margin   22,222
11th CD Obama: 211,242 or 56.96% of the total vote; Democratic margin    55,055
Total NoVA (8,10,11) : 638,826 or 59.31 % of the total vote; Democratic margin 211,284

Statewide:     Obama: 1,904,256 or 52.32 % of the total vote; Democratic margin 206,660

State
minus NOVA:Obama 1,265,430 or 49.39% of the total vote, Democratic margin (4,624)

Fairfax County contributed 309,706 or 60.21% of its votes to Obama, giving him a margin of victory in the County of 108,960. Notice that this margin does include the Republican-leaning Springfield Magisterial District. Obviously, there was some ticket-splitting when it came to presidential versus Congressional Districts.  We need figures now laid out and parsed for senatorial versus congressional versus presidential. Turning Virginia Blue is an ongoing battle and it is not over yet by any means.
 


Comments



The Republican Crossover Vote Won't Next Time (dsvabeachdems - 11/7/2008 2:52:55 PM)
A whole lot of work combined with a whole lot of angst added up to the perfect storm. The Obama people down here and Susan Mariner were the key. McCain won Virginia Beach but local Republicans were willing to demonstrate disillusionment in subordinate races. The bloom will be off the rose by the next cycle.


Good analysis . . . (JPTERP - 11/7/2008 3:00:25 PM)
one thing though that is likely to have a positive impact going forward is the 18-29 voter cohort -- Obama won that group by over a two to one margin.  In four years, four more years worth of young voters will enter the rolls in addition to the group that came into play this year.  

The biggest challenge for Dems will be keeping new voters active including in off-year elections.  

As far as the next presidential cycle goes, as you state, Obama will need to hold up his end of the bargain and provide effective governance.  Based on the state's demographics he has the potential to put Virginia in his column before the votes are even cast in 2012.

It's also good for Dems that Webb's re-election -- if he decides to run -- comes during the next presidential cycle.  He's the most vulnerable of the Dems who've won statewide office.  But Obama's presence on the ballot should provide Webb with some insurance if he decides to run again.



NOVA: Yes We Did! (jimhock - 11/7/2008 3:03:22 PM)
Great commentary Teddy. What an inspiring time to be a Democrat in Virginia.  These results show what a great job all of our county chairs did in Northern VA.  We were pleased to not only welcome Scott Surovell, but also Arlington Chair Peter Rousellot, Obama Fairfax Director Luke McGowan, Senator George Barker (for his work in Prince William), Ingrid Morroy and so many others today at our meeting.  Arlington itself provided a shot of blue adrenaline of a 50K vote cushion and our entire region provided a jolt of a few hundred thousand. Great momentum to help us in next November's election (and one in which redistricting will be on the line.)
More info about the Business Council at www.nvdembiz.org


One thing missing (Teddy - 11/7/2008 3:40:00 PM)
from Mr. Brodnitz' analysis, in my opinion, was the grassroots. I believe that Webb's win, the statewide expansion of a Democratic presence, Obama's win, and the increase in local Democratic office-holders would never has happened without the basic, stubborn work of individual activists... I mean, grimly determined and angry activists, sometimes in direct confrontation with old guard Democratic establishments, especially in the beginning (like the Webb campaign). The grassroots organized themselves by themselves, did the grunt labor, often without any help from the organized party at the beginning, but with the encouragement and sponsorship of the blogs like RaisingKaine.

While Brodnitz gave us the professional view, it occurs to me that it will probably be the grassroots that continues to organize itself to encourage the longterm interest of the new voters and the newly interested voters who responded to Obama. That is where we will find the way to hang on to these new people: helping Obama to deliver on his promises. He has already hinted that he'll call on us in the future, so we should be ready.



Excellent Diary (HisRoc - 11/7/2008 5:49:06 PM)
Teddy,
Excellent diary and insightful analysis by Brodnitz.  Let me use this comment to make the points that I intended to post in response to Rep. John Boehner's op-ed in today's Washington Post, but decided not to add to the nearly 1,000 'are you dreaming, you nut case!' other comments.

President-elect Obama was elected with a huge mandate and, yes, he and the 111th Congress will most certainly pursue a very progressive agenda.  The people have spoken and the Democratic majority has every right to expect that they have the mandate to do so.

However, Obama owes his election and mandate not to Democrats, not to disillusioned Republicans, and not to special voting blocks:  not African-Americans, not Latinos, not the young first-time voters, and not labor interests.  His election turned on the votes of the largest, but completely unorganized, political party in our country--independent moderates.  Even with the solidarity of all of those other constituencies, Obama would have lost without the overwhelming support of independent moderates.  Don't take my word for it, you can look it up.  For example, first-time voters under the age of 30 voted no more Democratic either numerically or as a percentage of their vote than in previous recent presidential elections.  (Source:  Chuck Todd, NBC News Political Director, citing Gallup.)  

We have been called Reagan Democrats, Rockefeller Republicans, and by numerous other misleading labels.  In truth, we hold the balance of power in every national election and we feel free to vote for any candidate regardless of political affiliations.

Boehner and his party won the votes of the independent moderates for several elections.  We gave them control of Congress after the failure of the first two years of the Clinton administration, with its HillaryCare, Somolia mission-creep, the 'don't-ask-don't-tell' policy, and numerous other debacles.  We gave them two Bush administrations.  Now, we have handed them their heads and given both control of Congress and the White House to the Democrats.

Independent moderates are the most self-interested voting block in the country.  We will always vote our own best interest first, regardless of political philosophy.  Sometimes this can even devolve into voting for the lesser of two evils, as we perceive it.  We have no loyalty other than to ourselves and how we perceive the greater good of the country.  (i.e.  what is good for me is good for the country.)

In my personal opinion, the single reason that Mark Warner enjoyed such a huge success in this election was not the fact that the Virginia Republicans were so dogmatically pure that they had to nominate an unelectable candidate.  It was because Warner understands the power of the independent moderates.

This is my message to the victorious Democrats of a new, blue Virginia:  tread lightly and don't forget who brought you to the dance.



Are you saying that (Teddy - 11/7/2008 6:42:49 PM)
what you call "independent moderates" (which is pretty much what I considered myself for 10 years after devolving from being staunch Republican) basically voted anti-Bush III? I prefer to think that many of them voted  pro-a progressive view of the role of government and how we Americans are all in this together.  That is, for WITT (we're in this together) because they'd tried YOYO (you're on your own) and it didn't work. Underlying this shift in the approach to government is a rejection of the jungle economics of pure free market Friedmanism and a hope for new rules of engagement across the board: economic, political, social. And I do not mean "socialism."


Both (HisRoc - 11/7/2008 8:22:18 PM)
That's the genius of independent moderates.  Some of them voted for the lesser of two evils and some of them voted for change.  The net result was an overwhelming support for Obama and the down-ticket Democrats.

BTW, if you want to quantify the difference between the 'lesser of two evils' and 'change' voters, examine the precincts where Obama's winning margin was not enjoyed by the down-ticket Democrats.



Good point (Teddy - 11/7/2008 8:55:27 PM)
and I hope you (or someone) will do such analyses down on the local level. It will be helpful in figuring out how to keep these new Democratic voters on the reservation. So to speak.


Also, (Teddy - 11/7/2008 9:00:26 PM)
since you say the difference between "lesser of 2 evils" and "change" voters is the difference between Obama and downticket Democrats, does that mean you consider these moderate independent voters you like so much to be, basically, Republican? That is, other circumstances being equal, they would automatically vote Republican? I'm not so sure...


No, No, No! (HisRoc - 11/7/2008 10:00:10 PM)
Independent moderates are not affiliated with any party, Democratic or Republican.  They consider political parties to be dangerous obstructions to pure democracy; organizations that can coerce voters to support candidates simply because of a party label.  And, since political parties have more leeway than individual candidates in fund-raising and campaign spending, then they are more susceptible to corrupt special interests.

The 'lesser of two evils' voters were those who distrusted Obama's 'liberal' agenda but who were disgusted by the prospect of a Bush III.   So, they voted for Obama but did not vote Democratic down-ticket.  The 'change' voters were the ones who bought into the Obama message and wanted to throw out all Republicans.



Love Your Rap But ... (norman swingvoter - 11/7/2008 10:19:12 PM)
I have been studing this exit poll and this does not appear to be the case in Virginia.  According to the poll, independents broke evenly between Obama and mccain. republicans and Democrats broke heavily for their respective candidates.  However, 6% more folks identified themselves as Democrats then republicans which gave Obama the winning margin.

Party Identification
Category   Obama McCain % Total

Democrat     92     8       39
Republican    8    92       33
Independent  49    48       27

Allowing for political philosophy the story is different

Category    Obama McCain % Total

Liberal       90     9      21
Moderate      58    41      46
Conservative  18    80      33

As a swingvoter I find this poll irritating but still here it is. You may have a different poll though.    

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25...  



The Poll Is Not Irritating In the Least (HisRoc - 11/7/2008 11:42:42 PM)
Almost 50% of the voters self-identified as Moderate.  Within that group, Obama had a 17-point lead.  Ipso facto, the independent moderates carried Virginia for Obama.

Thanks for playing, "swingvoter."

:)



Unfortunately for our party, Kaine has not been a successful problem solver. (martin lomasney - 11/7/2008 6:01:03 PM)
If he gets offered a Cabinet post, he should take it.

His failure in the VTech massacre was revisited today in the Richmond Times Dispatch.  Many of the effected families are from NOVA and they are not happy with the non-answers they have gotten.

His failure to solve NOVa and Norfolk's transportation nightmare also hurt his popularity in NOVA which caused his poll numbers in NOVA to fall all spring and summer and may have cost him the Vice Presidency.

If Kaine ran for Senate to fill a supposed Webb vacancy, I have doubts, he'd carry NOVA.  



Don't leave out Dominion (Teddy - 11/7/2008 6:45:37 PM)
Power's coal-fired plant. That decision upset environmentalists and a lot of other people, and he never gave us a straight explanation of what compelled him to make the decision he made. Maybe Deeds or Moran should go for the Senate seat?? If, of course, it comes up.