the black vote, the youth vote, and blue virginia

By: bcat
Published On: 11/6/2008 1:36:43 PM

I noticed something interesting and surprising in the Virginia turnout results. There's an assumption on the part of the Republicans, I think, that this election was a "special case," that Obama only won Virginia because he appeals specifically to young voters and African-American voters. The implicit message here is that the Democrats will be unable to repeat the success of 2008 in future elections.

These numbers are from exit polls, so you can take them with a LOT of salt. But in 2004, roughly 3.2 million votes were cast in Virginia. African-American votes accounted for 21% of the total, with 87% going to John Kerry and 12% going to GWB. That's 584,640 votes for the Democratic ticket and 80,640 for the Republican ticket. In 2008 roughly 3.62 million votes were cast. AA votes accounted for 20% of the total, with 92% going to Obama and 8% going to McCain. That's 666,080 votes for the Democratic ticket and 57,920 votes for the Republican ticket.

Here's what interesting: Obama got about 1.89 million votes in Virginia, and McCain got about 1.69 million. But if you reduce AA turnout and vote distribution to 2004 levels, Obama still wins Virginia by over 100,000 votes (about 1.81 million to 1.71 million). You can do the same thing with the youth (18-29) vote. In 2004 Kerry got about 293,760 votes from this group, and GWB got about 250,240. In 2008 Obama got about 456,120 votes from young people, and McCain got about 296,478. You can tell just by looking at these numbers that the youth vote in 2008 was substantially larger than in 2004 (the Dems saw about a 55% increase in their totals); but again, if you reduce youth turnout and distribution to 2004 levels, Obama still wins Virginia, although it's a bit closer: 1.73 million to 1.64 million.

If you reduce both the AA vote AND the youth vote to 2004 levels, Obama loses Virginia by a hair: about 20,000 votes, which is a small enough margin, given the unreliability of these exit polls, that we can probably call it a tie. Given that GWB won Virginia by about 260,000 votes, I'd say we're looking at hard evidence of a fundamental shift in the Virginia electorate--either demographically, or in their willingness to vote for a Democrat. You'll notice in the 2008 polls, for example, that the Latin vote went up to 5% (from 3% in 2004), and the Asian vote ticked up a percentage point. That 3% may not sound like much, but to the extent that these numbers are reliable, we're talking about 100,000 votes.

My larger point is that I think these numbers go a long way toward dispelling the myth that this was a "special election," that Virginia is anything but deep purple and likely trending blue. Which is something that seems obvious to anyone who has been following the last few election cycles, but maybe not so obvious to the RPV, who are still whistling past the graveyard. Even if the next Presidential candidate is an elderly white man, I'd still expect, given what I'm seeing here, for Virginia to be very close. Which means that we're going to continue to be a battleground state for the foreseeable future.

Comments



Excellent analysis... (Lowell - 11/6/2008 2:37:45 PM)
thanks!


Why? (bamboo - 11/7/2008 7:45:49 PM)
THanks for this useful analysis. But why is the AA vote lower proportionally in 2008 than in 2004? Was there such a large surge in youth and other voters? What proportion of the AA vote actually turned out this year compared to the past?
Again, many thanks!


yes, basically (bcat - 11/8/2008 12:25:53 PM)
There were many more AA votes (roughly 666,000 this time to 585,000 in 2004). But because there was a surge in every other demographic as well, the percentage seemed to hold steady. This shouldn't be a surprise; remember that politically-minded African-Americans tend to be very reliable and loyal voters who comprise a generous portion of the Democratic totals every year, even when turnout is low. In Virginia at least, the youth vote was the big story--that 55% increase over 2004 was enough to turn Montgomery and Albemarle Counties blue and sweep Virgil Goode out of office. Giving credit where credit is due, and not diminishing the contributions of AA voters to Obama's victory, the young people really did their part in this election.
 


Turnout (tx2vadem - 11/8/2008 9:20:08 PM)
So, as of the most recent totals on the VBOE site, turnout was 73.76% of total voters.  That is only 2.41% higher than 2004.  Though if you look at total population above the age of 18, then by my calculation the increase is 6.6%.  I think an open question is whether all of the people who showed up for this election will show up in future years.  

There was a lot of excitement over this election that drew out a lot of voters.  In addition, you had a massive presidential campaign operation in the state.  So, now that those two elements will be gone and turnout will be lower, will Democrats still have the upper hand?  Equally, you had this huge economic crisis that drove the NoVA counties further into the blue.  

I think it remains to be seen whether all these new voters will continue to vote and whether they will participate down the ballot from statewide races.  I think it also remains to be seen whether the suburbs and exurbs remain growing Democratic areas.  The 2009 & 2010 elections I think will tell us a whole lot more about the direction of the Virginia electorate than just this one election.  If Dems can sweep statewide offices and maybe take the House of Delegates, then I think we can call the 2008 election a trend and not an exception.  And then if we can hold VA-2 and VA-5, that would make it more definitive.  

Plus, I would never think incorrectly like Rove and Delay that you can build a lasting majority (I can see how Texas might fool people).  Republicans may be out of the game for now.  But I certainly think they can regain their appeal and win once more.  This, of course, depends on whether they can adopt a strategy that makes them attractive once more in the burbs.  And changing circumstances can always tip the scales regardless of whether you come up with a strong set of positions.