Chap Petersen: "PWC is the New Fairfax"

By: Lowell
Published On: 11/6/2008 1:18:26 PM

Check out Chap Petersen's excellent analysis of Tuesday's election results in the 34th Senate district, Fairfax County, and Virginia.  Here's an excerpt (bolding added by me for emphasis):

4. PWC is the New Fairfax.  The national media described Prince William County as the new battleground in Virginia.  Actually, it's the old battleground.  Now it's solidly Dem.  Obama carried it 56-43, absolutely pasting McCain on the east side (Route 1 corridor) of the County, which is more Dem than Fairfax.  On the west side, as in Fairfax, the Repubs held an edge but it was closer than years past.  This County is now a Democratic County.

5. Loudoun is Close Behind. Loudoun had nearly identical Democratic numbers to PWC in the Presidential (54.5-44.5), although Frank Wolf did pull 60% on the Congress side.  The Obama victory is a huge flip from 2004, although it's no longer a surprise as Kaine and Webb had pulled these precincts in 2005 and 2006.  Again, this County is now Democratic.

6.  Exurbs are Closing In:  The counties of Stafford (46%), Spotsylvania (46%), Culpeper (45%) and Fauquier (44%) used to be the heart of red America.  Now they're burnt orange.  Again, Obama's campaign brought out new voters, including those who are immigrants moving out from neighborhoods nearer D.C. to look for cheaper housing. These areas are now officially in play for Democratic gains.

As is most often the case, Chap is correct. Check out the rest of his analysis here.

Comments



Not so sure PWC is an "old" battleground just yet... (TurnPWBlue - 11/6/2008 5:08:05 PM)
The eastern end of Prince William may be pretty solid blue, but the western end still needs a lot of work.  Obama's numbers in PWC were good, but there were still quite a few precincts that went for McCain, some by large margins.  Wolf did well in PWC precincts and Fimian won a few precincts in PWC (despite any real presence by either Connolly or Fimian in PWC--it would be nice if they remembered the district includes more than just Fairfax County).

We'll see next year just how blue PWC has become.  If we can vote out the likes of Jeff Frederick, Jackson Miller, and Bob Marshall, I'll start to believe.  Then, we will need to send Corey Stewart and John Stirrup packing.



Did you see the final results out of PWC?? (themom59 - 11/7/2008 1:31:25 AM)
With 100% of the returns in, Obama beat McCain 57% - 41%. This is shocking. If you check the Absentee returns by precinct, it's obvious that the in-person Absentee was all Obama.

I'm speechless.

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg...



County results = Great! Precinct results = still work to do. (TurnPWBlue - 11/7/2008 8:30:43 AM)
While the overall county numbers were really, really encouraging (and the absentee numbers amazing), here are the numbers that still point to a lot of work ahead before PW is truly blue:

Brentsville:  70% McCain
Nokesville:  64% McCain
Battlefield:  63% McCain
Evergreen:  60% McCain
Mt. View:  59% McCain
Bull Run:  59% McCain

The precinct by precinct numbers paint a picture of a bi-polar county with the eastern end dark blue and the western end bright red.  That, by definition, is a battleground.  The margin in the county-wide vote really was because precincts like River Oaks, Lynn, and Freedom swayed 70-80% for Obama.  This was not a county-wide phenomenon.  Will those voters who came out in droves to elect Barack Obama be there when it's time to defeat Corey Stewart?  Has the west end shifted enough to end Bob Marshall's incumbency?

There are definitely some encouraging signs.  Marstellar and Victory both went for Obama (albeit by small margins).  Bristow Run was basically 50-50 and Cedar Point was only 52% McCain.  These are precincts along the Linton Hall corridor right in the middle of traditional Republican strongholds (Dems don't do well in the Brentsville or Gainesville districts).