Too Close To Call in VA-05: Provisional ballots being counted

By: faithfull
Published On: 11/5/2008 1:10:48 AM

Provisional ballots are being tallied as we speak. We'll now be updating here

RacePrecincts InDem% - Rep%Vote +-
VA-05100% Perriello 49.95% (157,309) - Goode 49.99% (157,419) Goode +110

Update III: Perriello Campaign Statement:

...We are clearly seeing a very close election with vote totals from different counties changing rapidly, and Tom Perriello remains confident that when everyone's vote is counted he will win this election and move ahead with his agenda for economic revival in the fifth district...

Update II: Just heard from the State Board that provisional ballots are being examined today, as well as a canvassing of all returns from yesterday to ensure that there were no errors and all tallies were accurate. Results may remain unofficial until November 24th.

As the numbers are updated you can track ALL changes in this race right here.

...

Nobody likes to do this, and MSNBC had to "un-call" the race for Goode last night as well. Unfortunately things have taken a turn for the worst this morning for Tom Perriello and it is unclear who will be the winner.


Comments



The SBE says 156,429-154,157 (Lowell - 11/5/2008 1:14:36 AM)
That's a 2,272-vote lead, unless I'm mistaken, with 99.34% of the vote counted.


That just changed (faithfull - 11/5/2008 1:15:57 AM)
Updated appropriately. FINGERS CROSSED!


Please, please, please, PLEASE (Lowell - 11/5/2008 1:17:16 AM)
let these numbers be correct!!!


Apparently... (Science Virginian - 11/5/2008 1:30:42 AM)
...the 9th Ward in Danville reduced their vote totals. They dropped Goode from 1022 to 353, and Perriello from 1303 to 463.

That doesn't explain the change in spread, but would cause a reduction in the total vote.



Interesting. (faithfull - 11/5/2008 1:42:23 AM)
Any word on the cause?


BOE just says... (Science Virginian - 11/5/2008 1:50:53 AM)
VERIS changed totals when entered CAP at midnight.



Military Ballots (Rico - 11/6/2008 8:30:36 AM)
Does anyone have an idea how the military ballots that the Pentagon mailed late will affect Tom's race in the 5th? I hear it's going back to court on 11/10.

Rico



Ha ha ha ha ha ha (Mark - 11/5/2008 1:37:20 AM)
This is so freaking delicious!

I was at a party in Farmville, with 75 people from surrounding counties. The place was rockin'.

Woooooot!!



This is the one that has to flip. (Barbara - 11/5/2008 1:53:25 AM)
Also crossing my fingers.  


C'mon, Tom! (Will Write For Food - 11/5/2008 2:00:19 AM)
I just moved to the district and don't want Goode to be my congressman!

It's a hair 100 vote separation with two precincts to go!
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg...



100% reporting and P. wins by 25 votes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (thegools - 11/5/2008 2:00:35 AM)
I just read this on a poll tracker.


155,964-Goode & 156,989 Perriello (thegools - 11/5/2008 2:03:19 AM)
Rather it as 1025 votes ith 100% reporting.

PERRIELLO WINS!!!!!!!!

(Do I hear Goode calling for a recount?)



AWESOME!!!! (faithfull - 11/5/2008 2:12:55 AM)
link?


Let this one hold (Barbara - 11/5/2008 2:27:15 AM)
This would be the icing on the cake.


5th District (Mark - 11/5/2008 2:43:07 AM)
Two precincts missing -

Campbell County Absentee ballots precinct
Lunenburg - 1st District aka 'Plymouth' District

No idea what's holding this up. Provisional ballots are listed in a lot of the precincts, but they are not considered as unreported by the SBE.



Amazing (DanG - 11/5/2008 3:26:26 AM)
Nye and Periello?  Never would've believed it.

Still won't believe it until tomorrow...



Woohoo! (KCinDC - 11/5/2008 3:50:12 AM)
If this holds up, that means the Virginia House delegation is now majority Democratic -- going from 3-8 to 6-5.


Way to go, Tom! n/t (Will Write For Food - 11/5/2008 4:27:16 AM)


This is great news! (ToKnow - 11/5/2008 6:09:20 AM)
Each election Virginians become smarter and begin to realize that there is no place for bigotry in public service.  I'm glad this election has come full circle, and not only am I proud to be an American on this historic milestone, but also proud to call myself a Virginian.


Do you promise me this is true? (Sploder - 11/5/2008 8:39:06 AM)
What about the last few votes?  The last precinct?  What is up with that?  PLEASE tell me I can exhale...I have been holding my breath all night.


Well, according to Roll Call it is. (Lowell - 11/5/2008 8:45:06 AM)
Having said that, I suppose it's not officially over until the count is certified and/or Drake concedes...


Not sure what is up (aznew - 11/5/2008 8:46:10 AM)
The SBE had it as tight as could be last night with mainly Goode precincts left to report, then this morning the margin was $2K with only the Lunenberg precinct, I would guess.

No idea what happened, but it looks as if Tom Perriello has won.



Uh, oh yeah, and exhale. (aznew - 11/5/2008 8:46:40 AM)


HOLY CRAP! (aznew - 11/5/2008 9:24:07 AM)
SBE now showing Goode ahead:

VG    157,070
TP     156,768

Only Lunenburg left to go.

This is bizzare.



Looks Like a RECOUNT (ub40fan - 11/5/2008 10:02:14 AM)
is in order .... Goode is up by 302 votes with little accounting left to do.  


Strange... (kevindruff - 11/5/2008 10:17:50 AM)
SBE and AP have different counts, w/ AP saying 100% of precincts reporting...

SBE:
VG    157,070
TP     156,768

AP:
TP: 157,851
VG: 156,694



Agreed, but... (cycle12 - 11/5/2008 10:18:55 AM)
...at this link:  http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/li... for some reason, at 9:20 A.M., WDBJ News 7 is showing that, with 100% of the precincts reporting, Perriello has won by about 1150 votes...

Who knows?

Thanks!

Steve  



Let's HOPE (ub40fan - 11/5/2008 12:12:52 PM)
I mean the Obama campaign was all about HOPE and I hope Tom Perriello WON!!


Media Outlets (uva08 - 11/5/2008 10:21:30 AM)
Where is MSNBC getting their results from?  They have 100 percent reporting with Perriello up.  I am so confused.


I can only assume (aznew - 11/5/2008 10:28:24 AM)
They have people going through the state sites manually and entering data into their own system for publication on their websites. So they are reflecting what the SBE had up most of the evening, but changed early this morning for some unknown reason. Since MSNBC thinks there was 100% reporting (which was incorrect, BTW), they may not look back again for a while.

Anyway, it seems everyone is confused, but in the absence of anything else, I'd assume the SBE is a better source, in the sense of reflecting what the people who matter think the count is.



No, that's not how it works... (kevindruff - 11/5/2008 10:33:40 AM)
I can tell you from first hand experience. The AP (which is what CNN, MSNBC, etc. use) has a different count than the SBE. The AP stations reporters in nearly every county across the country and gathers results directly as they come in.

This is why when CNN showed Jim Webb ahead before midnight 2 years ago, we wondered what crack they were smoking because they had the wrong numbers in several counties. These were eventually fixed and the AP/SBE numbers converged sometime after midnight or 12:30 (I don't remember what time exactly...)

Now, if counties change their results after the AP reporter leaves then they might have the wrong results, which could account for why Virgil's number is 400 higher and Tom's number is 1,100 lower...



Well... (tripinva - 11/5/2008 10:35:29 AM)
In that event, we can only hope that more numbers change, in Perriello's favor.


Thanks. That's good to know. (aznew - 11/5/2008 10:56:46 AM)


Worried... (Dave N. - 11/5/2008 10:41:52 AM)
They have 850 registered voters in the unreported precinct. Assuming 70% turnout (the Lunenberg County average for yesterday), that's 600 voters. Tom P. would have to get about 75% in that precinct to make up the 302 vote difference. Goode won with about 78% in 2006.


Tom probably has lost, actually (GeoffreyVS - 11/5/2008 11:21:21 AM)
SBE just posted the last precinct, which went to Virgil by a fair amount.  Tom is down 446 frickin' votes with all 307 precincts reporting.  This is so frustrating.  I think what misled us was an over-reporting of Danville numbers.  When the last precinct in Danville was added at like 1 am last night, Tom's percentage advantage there jumped from 57-42 to 65-34.  The SBE has since changed those numbers and Tom's edge is 57-42 again in Danville.


Wait until they start canvassing the votes and correcting errors (thegools - 11/5/2008 11:24:41 AM)
If it is anything like the Webb election, the numbers will slowly move in Tom P.'s favor.  Let's hope.


God, I hope you are right (GeoffreyVS - 11/5/2008 11:28:45 AM)
Mecklenburg County had ~700 voters who voted for Obama but didn't vote in the Senate or House elections.  Warner didn't need those but Tom sure did.


Excuse me (GeoffreyVS - 11/5/2008 11:35:30 AM)
I should've put it this way: there were ~700 people who didn't vote in the House and Senate races who did vote for President, and Tom lost by almost 11 points there while Obama only lost by 4.5.


True, but (aznew - 11/5/2008 11:45:14 AM)
Warner won pretty handily in Mecklenburg.

Looks like affinity for Virgil down there was too much overcome whatever coattails Obama or, more accurately in this case, Warner could provide.



I've updated the post (faithfull - 11/5/2008 12:21:35 PM)
Uncalling it for Tom and assuming for the tme being we will be heading to a recount.


They'll be required to do a recount... (Clemgo3165 - 11/5/2008 12:16:33 PM)
And we've seen the numbers swing significantly during past recounts (Deeds & Webb), 446 is a doable margin for Perriello, but I agree with you that Tom has likely lost - I'd love to see Goode go down though!


Nothing Yet From the Campaign (aznew - 11/5/2008 12:25:25 PM)
I doubt they are giving up, however.

Whatever happened with these numbers over the past 15 hours, it has been funky enough, and the election is close enough, that someone needs to look into it, and no one should concede anything, IMHO.

No more Floridas!



Danville's vote switch was the difference (Crispy Wits and Raisons - 11/5/2008 12:41:54 PM)
But the SBOE is showing a change in Lunenburg due to tabulation error. The difference is now 146 votes:

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg...

I've got a diary on this at DKos:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

If you have an account there, please rec the diary so we can draw attention to this crazy race.



Canvassing (uva08 - 11/5/2008 12:52:20 PM)
Do you (or anyone else) know when the SBE starts and ends canvassing?


The SBOE has info on that (Crispy Wits and Raisons - 11/5/2008 12:58:43 PM)
Here:
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cm...

It looks like we'll know more by tonight. Does anyone know when/where the Danville canvass is taking place?



What about lawyers? (The Donkey - 11/5/2008 1:41:49 PM)
How can we get plugged in to help out?


And we are down to about a 150 vote margin (uva08 - 11/5/2008 12:34:03 PM)
This is crazy.


VA-05 (Veritas - 11/5/2008 1:09:21 PM)
This race is some crazy S*@t...

Well hopefully the recount goes Mr. Perriello's way, because this race is definitely going to a recount.  



Although (Mark - 11/5/2008 2:17:26 PM)
there really is nothing to count...

For reference, see Creigh Deeds, December 2005.



CNN (Gezi - 11/5/2008 1:17:14 PM)
has Tom up 119 votes, and is reporting higher vote totals (158,996-158,877): http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTIO...


Recount (tvhost - 11/5/2008 3:10:35 PM)
I am sure a recount will be coming. I am hopeful the right man will win. I feel if the right man does not win. Southside Va will suffer the loss for a long time.


6! (tripinva - 11/5/2008 3:31:59 PM)
Whoa!

Right at this moment, the BoE has Goode up by just 6 votes!



CNN seems to be ahead of the SBOE count (Crispy Wits and Raisons - 11/5/2008 3:58:26 PM)
I think CNN is getting the numbers uploaded to their site faster than SBOE. They've now got Goode up by 436, and their county-by-county numbers are posting more quickly than SBOE's as well.