Jim Moran easily wins reelection, with something like 75% of the vote over Mark Ellmore in the 8th CD.

Barbara Favola (Arlington county board), Libby Garvey (Arlington school board), and Emma Violand-Sanchez (ditto), all win easily today in Arlington. Congratulations to three wonderful public servants! :)

Turnout of registered voters in Arlington: 83%
Percent of voters who G'Obama: 78%

Margin of Obama victory in Arlington: roughly 75,000 votes.

I think Lowell's predictions are closest to my own, including the sad face for the race that should have been - the 10th - which will go strongly for Obama and Warner.

I'm just not predicting it. What needs to happen is a major "wave" for Obama and Warner at the top of the ticket, and not too many people breaking off and voting "R" downballot.  We'll see...I sure hope I'm wrong about the 2nd and 10th!

Here is the latest National Weather Service forecast map of the United States. As you can see, it's expected to be clear across the vast majority of the United States, with one notable exception: rain in Virginia. :(  So, bring your umbrella!

Here's the early morning (5:15 am EST) satellite photo.

CD 1: Rob Wittman 58%-Bill Day 42%

CD 4: Randy Forbes 68%-Andrea Miller 32%

CD 6: Bob Goodlatte 59%-Sam Rasoul 41%

CD 7: Eric Cantor 58%-Anita Hartke 42%

Bobby Scott (3rd) and Rick Boucher (9th) win reelection easily - congratulations!

I appreciate your optimistic support of Bill Day - I think he can achieve it.  Living in the 1st - gotta say people just aren't crazy about Rob Wittman (unfortunately they don't dislike him enough to vote D).  As for Rasoul and Hartke - I think you're overestimating their districts.  I doubt either will break 40.  Miller, on the other hand, I believe will.  The 4th includes many heavily-AA areas and was held by a Democrat up until a few years ago when Randy Forbes took over.  I think Ms. Miller will get at least 38%.

...we'll know in 12 hours or so.

and FWIW, Zogb's final national margin on his 3-day tracker is double digits:  54.1 - 42.7, or 11.4%

I think 11-12 point margin may actually be right once they count all the paper ballots, which will probably take several days.

As far as electoral votes, somewhere 390 or North.  To break 400 Obama would have to carry AZ -  since Howard Dean was just there, they think it is possible.

Senate -  +8 not counting GA, which goes to a runoff.  I am afraid on MS and KY we will fall short, but would love to be called wrong  (this is a downgrade from yesterday, when I still thinking +9 w/o Georgia).

House - net over 28, maybe as much as 35.  

Some of these are so damn close.

I think we will squeak out in the 5th CD.  If margin in VA is 8 or more I also would say the 2nd, but I have no idea how turnout will be there, or how weather may affect things.

I will be surprised if Feder wins, unless Virginia is +10 for Obama.

But what do I know.  I teach high school, and that in Maryland.

Peace.

I am feeling really good

Obama 52 - McCain 46
Warner 63 - Gilmore 35
Perriello 51 - Goode 49

Obama 52, McCain 47
Warner 63, Gilmore 35
Drake 52, Nye 48 (sadly)
Goode 51, Perriello 49 (also sadly)
Wolf 57, Feder 42
Connolly 56, Fimian 43

Obama/Biden 320 Electoral votes   272 Solid     48 Leaning

McCain/Palin 171 Electoral Votes     118 Solid     53 Leaning

Toss Up 47 Florida and Ohio (like 2000 and 2004 still subject to outside forces)

VA goes for Obama/Biden with 51%

Mark Warner easily wins the race for the U.S. Senate with 63%

VA-01 Bill Day 41%
VA-02 Glenn Nye 47%
VA-03 Rep. Bobby Scott 96%
VA-04 Andrea Miller 32%
VA-05 Tom Perriello 46%
VA-06 Sam Rasoul 34%
VA-07 Anita Hartke 39%
VA-08 Rep. Jim Moran 68%
VA-09 Rep. R. Boucher 68%
VA-10 Judy Feder 46%
VA-11 Gerry Connolly 52%

repeated from an earlier thread:

Obama 54, McCain 45.
Warner 65, Gilmore 35.
Nye 51, Drake 49.
Perriello 50.5, Goode 49.5.
Feder 51, Wolf 49.
Connolly 60, Fimian 40.

I'd also venture that Andrea Miller will capture 40% (or more) in the 4th due to high African-American turnout.

final numbers like these.

Obama 51, McCain 48
Warner 65, Gilmore 34
Drake 52, Nye 48
Goode 51, Periello 49
Connolly 60, Fimian 40
Wolf 56, Feder 44

Virginia NOT called immediately for Obama, and don't think that's a bad thing.  Winning Virginia is victory enough.