Latest National Polls Show Big Obama Lead

By: Lowell
Published On: 11/2/2008 9:04:56 PM

But keep working like we're only ahead a point or two! :)

CBS News: Obama 54%-McCain 41% (+13 points)

ABC News/Washington Post: Obama 54%-McCain 43% (+11 points)

USA Today: Obama 53%-McCain 42% (+11 points)

Gallup: Obama 52%-McCain 43% (+9 points)

Pew: Obama 52%-McCain 46% (+6 points)

Any further questions? :)

P.S. The Washington Post notes that "more than a quarter of the probable electorate has already voted - among these early birds, 59 percent said they voted for Obama, 40 percent for McCain."


Comments



Any further questions? (relawson - 11/2/2008 9:06:53 PM)
What is FAUX news reporting ;-)

That's rhetorical ;-)



Yeah, and what's on Sludge.. (Lowell - 11/2/2008 9:10:12 PM)
...I mean Drudge.  By the way, have I mentioned recently that I think Matt Drudge is a lying scumbag?  I haven't?!?  Well, then, let's correct that oversight, Bart Simpson style. :)

Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.
Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.
Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.
Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.
Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.
Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.
Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.
Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.
Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.
Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.
Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.
Matt Drudge is a Lying Scumbag.



who cares about Drudge? (jasonVA - 11/2/2008 9:35:30 PM)
One of the great side stories of this election has got to be how marginalized and nearly insignificant Drudge has become.  I'm sure his traffic is still huge, but nobody legitimate seems to be following his lame stories this year.

Between Ashley Todd and his embarrasing "the polls are tightening" headlines, he really has revealed himself as a true loser.



According to Drudge... (Lowell - 11/2/2008 9:56:24 PM)
...he's received 25,400,885 visits in the past 24 hours.  I'm not sure I believe this, but even if he only gets 10% of that, it's huge.


We can repeat this exercise (Lowell - 11/2/2008 9:54:32 PM)
for Zogby, maybe something like:

Zogby is a shameless media whore.
Zogby is a shameless media whore.
Zogby is a shameless media whore.
Zogby is a shameless media whore.
Zogby is a shameless media whore.
Zogby is a shameless media whore.
Zogby is a shameless media whore.
Zogby is a shameless media whore.
Zogby is a shameless media whore.
Zogby is a shameless media whore.
Zogby is a shameless media whore.



By the way (GeorgetownStudent - 11/2/2008 9:14:49 PM)
Hillary's rally in Fairfax was amazing!!! There were so many of her supporters that were SOOOOOOOO fired up about voting for Obama!


I Know its a big lead (pvogel - 11/2/2008 9:30:59 PM)
But I really want to  pour it on, Lets go for a huge, goldwater-like  landslide. Lets put Mccain at the head .. of the veterans day parade!


Let John McCain reitre (TurnPWBlue - 11/2/2008 9:36:00 PM)

Go to about 5:56.



I have a question? (Dan - 11/2/2008 9:37:47 PM)
Why is the press hammering home that this race is still close? Why did John McGlaughlin actually say today that the race is "too close too call"?  Why are John McGlaughlin and Tom Brokaw misleading people to say that McCain is creeping up in the polls?  Brokaw was talking about complacency and that people wouldn't show up because they think the race is over.  Yeah Tom, is that why the polls are swelling with voters, excited about the election?

In fact, they are passionate and will stay on line all day to make their choice known.  These people are behind Obama.  Sure they won't get enough voting machines, and some may be intimidated, but people are going to vote.  They aren't voting because they are excited about Joe the Plumber, they are voting because of Barack Obama.



Because the press has a vested interest (Lowell - 11/2/2008 9:42:26 PM)
in a tight "horse race."  Remember, they're corporations, and the point of a corporation is to make money. Period.


They are talking about the new polls on Chris Matthews (Dan - 11/2/2008 9:56:25 PM)
Chris Matthews is talking about the new polls on MSNBC.  He says "this race is not tightening"


If I recall. (Pain - 11/2/2008 9:55:04 PM)

McGlaughlin called the 2004 election for Kerry.  He doesn't want that soundbite again.

I loved how Barbie, er, Monica called it for McCain by .5 points and how Buchannan didn't commit.

I think the election will go for Obama, but if/when VA goes obama, I think I'm going to cry, because that will mean everything is changing.  I want to cry.



I will scream in joy (Dan - 11/2/2008 9:57:52 PM)
I think I may cry, but I will scream in joy.  I will call all my friends, if they don't call me first.  Tuesday night can't come fast enough.  Too bad I can't take off work to volunteer!


I will be content if it just happens. (thegools - 11/2/2008 10:36:41 PM)
I make no presumptions, but I do hope.


You mean "John McLaughlin" (Lowell - 11/2/2008 9:58:33 PM)
not "McGlaughlin."  Anyway, why would anyone pay that clown one second's worth of attention on any subject?  


Because it isn't over (tx2vadem - 11/2/2008 10:17:28 PM)
and anything could happen.  Probably this is mostly attributable to calls they have made in the past that turned out wrong.  But they may have convinced themselves that there will be some racism factor that will be incalculable until after people vote.  And in the end, they can't make a call unless their network makes that call.  And they aren't going to do that until they have results and exit polls.

I mean if it was over, a done deal, why would the RNC still be spending money on ads for McCain and not dumping that on some Senate races?  Clearly, there is still some sliver of hope.  People could indeed hear these stores about long lines and overwhelming odds for McCain and just go to work and not vote.  That may be improbable.  But there is that small chance.  And maybe it isn't even a small chance.  We did afterall, as a nation, re-elect Bush to another 4 years.  So, in my mind, anything is possible.



Not with the ground game (Dan - 11/2/2008 11:23:34 PM)
That is why the Obama GOTV team is preparing for these contingencies.  There will be long lines.  Tens of thousands of people in Ohio had to give up and go home in early voting.  However, the Obama GOTV will protect these people and we know that early voting has helped.


Mason-Dixon? (jlmccreery - 11/2/2008 9:47:36 PM)
Any thoughts on the Mason-Dixon polls that show Obama's lead down to three points in Virginia and neck and neck in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina?

Paranoia overwhelms me.



See fivethirtyeight.com (Dan - 11/2/2008 9:51:44 PM)
On fivethirtyeight.com they show a consistent swing to McCain from Mason Dixon in State polls.  I think they showed that Mason-Dixon showed Bush's leads in 2004 as larger than they were on election day.


Mason-Dixon is a good pollster, but... (Lowell - 11/2/2008 9:53:18 PM)
...according to Nate Silver at 538, it's got a significant pro-Republican "house effect."

Throughout this election cycle, we have found that Mason-Dixon's polls lean 2-3 points more toward John McCain than the average of other polls taken in those states at the same time.

So, probably the best thing to do with Mason-Dixon polls is add 2-3 points for the Democratic candidate.  That would put Obama up 5-6 points in Virginia.



Maybe Fox News will refuse to concede? (Dan - 11/2/2008 9:50:29 PM)
Perhaps Fox News, since they think the race is still too close to call, might not concede.  In fact, if/when he wins Fox News may simply refuse to report on Barack Obama as President-Elect.  They will just follow McCain and Palin around and pretend they won.  If they could convince 23% of Texas that Obama is Muslim, maybe they can convince enough Fox News viewers that McCain is President-elect even when he loses.  Frankly, that won't bother me.  Fox News always reported in a conservative fantasy world.  They can continue for all I care.  


New poll coming on Virginia in the next 1/2 hour... (Lowell - 11/2/2008 10:01:10 PM)
...from Public Policy Polling. Here's their teaser:

As good as the poll we did last week where Obama was up 9? No.

But if you're a Democrat and you're not happy with it you're just being greedy.

Stay tuned...



Another possible reason for "tightening" (Teddy - 11/2/2008 11:13:44 PM)
in key states is that the Republican machine is laying groundwork to contest the results, take a lawsuit to the Supreme Court, and negate the election's results in their favor, as they have done before. If they can make a case that vote fraud combined with a late-surge for McCain changed the election (as in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire, or in the exit polls in Ohio in 2004) they can de-legitimize Obama's election and steal it back.

They have been laying the groundwork for this attempt over the past few weeks with their attacks on ACORN, with Bush's ordering the Department of Justice to "investigate" the rolls of new voters in Ohio, with various law suits and investigations of "vote fraud" in key states, and so---- all in a deliberate effort not only to suppress Democratic turnout but also to create uncertainty and give them an opportunity to stop the election in its tracks. Newsmax.com claims that the most recent polls in Pennsylvania and other key swing states show McCain pulling even with or slightly ahead of Obama. I pay attention since Newsmax sometimes tips the hand of Republican power lords.    



They can't make them forget (Dan - 11/2/2008 11:26:41 PM)
Teddy, what is this paranoid stuff?  Perhaps Republicans are trying to steal elections as usual, but then why didn't they steal the Senate and House races in 2006?  So, you are saying McCain is leading in PA since the Republicans are stealing the election?  Is that because people in PA love having their constitutional rights abridged?  What are we - Zimbabwe?  From what I have heard, Republicans like Mitt Romney are already giving up and preparing for 2012.


Too emotional... (Dan - 11/2/2008 11:46:21 PM)
Sorry if my response was too harsh Teddy.  What I meant to say is that I doubt these voters are moved by voter fraud, which is truly evil.  I think many conservatives are tired of Bush and will vote for Obama anyway.  We will get our votes.  No matter what Bush ever tried, he never won Pennsylvania.  Those voters under a Democratic Governor will give Obama that State no matter what the Republicans try.


Not paranoid (Teddy - 11/3/2008 12:32:30 AM)
but I am thinking about why this mysterious tightening is being promoted in swing states in the face of other polls showing Obama up so convincingly on a national  basis. I know polls are not entirely reliable, we've discussed that here on RK, but there is an apparent campaign to encourage the appearance of tightening, perhaps because pundits are endeavoring to CYA, perhaps because news organisations want a horse race... and, perhaps because it serves a purpose, that purpose being to make it plausible for Republicans to contest results. I simply would not put such deviousness past the GOP. Consider their track record, consider how frantic they obviously are, how entitled they feel (despite evidence to the contrary) to win and stay in power.