Why Would Undecideds Break Heavily for McCain?

By: Josh
Published On: 11/2/2008 7:17:42 PM

It's not over until it's over, but it's universally seen as an "uphill climb" for McCain.  Looking at the electoral maps the situation is not confusing at all.  For McCain to win, he needs to win every tossup and win back Pennsylvania.  If Obama puts Nevada away, then McCain must win back New Hampshire.  

So, the big question right now is this:  will the undecideds break towards John McCain enough to give him EVERY swing state, including Virginia, and win him back Pennsylvania and New Hampshire?

Well, if the big question is about Undecideds, I'm wondering what is the rationale behind the argument that they will break so strongly for the Republican?  The only argument I've heard is that if you're going to favor Obama, you'd already be onboard.  Are there any undecideds out there willing to talk this out?  I just haven't heard a compelling argument.  Given the overall climate, the importance of the economy, the erratic record of the McCain campaign, why would undecideds break heavily for McCain?


Comments



Here Are A Couple of Things I Have Heard (norman swingvoter - 11/2/2008 8:32:50 PM)
Let me first say I don't know anyone who is undecided. However, here are a couple of things I have heard about undecideds that I could see happening.

a) A girl on a blog said her brother is decided and has told her so even though he won't say who he is voting for.  He doesn't feel it is anyone's business so he claims he is undecided even though he has actually decided.

b) Someone on cable suggested that some folks don't like mccain/palin but don't trust Obama because he is just too different for them.  The commentator stated these tended to be older whites so he felt they would either vote for mccain or not vote at all.



Don't you think a lot of these people just won't vote? (Josh - 11/2/2008 9:25:20 PM)
I think at this point, if you don't know who you're voting for you just might not stay in the long lines.

Same with McCain voters.  I mean, if I'm a psyched and dedicated Obama voter, I'm 100% staying in line to vote regardless of what might come up.  If I'm a quasi interested McCain voter who's kinda queasy because socialism kinda sounds bad, and who thinks Sarah Palin is hot, um... I don't know if I'm going to miss out on 4 hours of work to stand in a line.

When we're 2 days before an election and polls have 9% undecided "likely voters", I think there's got to be some conflagration between "likely voters" and "registered voters".



Probably (norman swingvoter - 11/2/2008 9:41:37 PM)
You are probably right, actually hopefully right if they aren't voting for Obama.  


If there are really 9% undecided voters (thegools - 11/2/2008 10:44:37 PM)
I think it is safe to say these are the Bradley/Wilder-effect voters.

In 2004, it was hard to find undecided voters enough to fill a town hall debate.  Remember?



Why they would break one way or another (tx2vadem - 11/3/2008 12:25:11 AM)
If you are truly undecided at this point, logic is something you do not possess and rationalism is lost on you.  So, trying to apply some reasoned argument for why they would go this way or that is pointless.  How do you predict how irrational people will behave?  It seems to me that you can't.  It's like asking why some people are willing to pay 60+ times earnings for certain stocks.  For all we know, these wild children could put a dairy creamer in their coffee tomorrow even though they are lactose intolerant.


That may be the strongest argument I've heard (Josh - 11/3/2008 1:25:48 AM)
If the undecideds are basically irrational, that would strongly imply McCain voters.


voting is still a private act. (presidentialman - 11/3/2008 12:19:15 PM)
Why tell the world you saw a porn movie?  Porn movies, are about porn, and stereotypes, and sexual fantasies, and shame and guilt. Its not a movie that other people would talk about. Whereas if you saw a mainstream, or indie flick like Juno, O Brother Where Art thou?  You want to tell people there's this great movie, you should go see it.  Voting is like seeing a porn movie,especially when a msm, or campaign person asks you, so they know. My Union rep called me for such a thing. I made sure that I gave them from beginning to end, that I was leaning towards Obama but hadn't committed, because I don't think they need to know that. Now my friends, that's a different matter-they're my friends. I seriously doubt that in this election, people are on the fence.