Obama  385
McCain  153

Toss-ups to McCain - Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri

Toss-ups to Obama - Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania (if you consider it one).

Obama wins the national election 52%-47%, with the other 1% going to third parties.

I'll predict that McCain takes Florida and North Carolina, with the exception of Virginia sweeping the south.  I'll predict Obama takes Ohio because of the economy, but loses Indiana.

That will put it at 322 to 189 in favor of Obama.  

If we get lucky here in Florida, it will be 349 to 189 and a bonified landslide.

Tiderion, how did you arrive at 385 to 153?  The best case scenario I see is 375 to 163.  That includes Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, and Ohio going to Obama.  

If Louisiana goes from leaning Republican to Democrat, that puts the numbers at 384 to 154 - but I can't find the 385 to 153 scenario.

Charlie Cook:

# LOUISIANA | President: Solid Republican to Lean Republican (10/31/08)
# NORTH DAKOTA | President: Lean Republican to Toss Up (10/31/08)
# SOUTH DAKOTA | President: Lean Republican to Toss Up (10/31/08)
# GEORGIA | President: Lean Republican to Toss Up (10/31/08)
# MONTANA | President: Lean Republican to Toss Up (10/31/08)
# ARIZONA | President: Likely Republican to Lean Republican (10/31/08)

That's how you get a landslide! :)

If those states go blue, it would indeed be a landslide.  We have heavy early voting so you never know, but the real question is how many people are voting early who wouldn't otherwise vote.  How many are converting from Republican or Independent to Democrat.  

So many Democrats have voted early, I worry that exit polling might look bad for us because early voting wasn't considered.  If the young people show up at the rallys but don't show up for the day that matters, we are in trouble.

I can't imagine myself being a young minority at this point in our nation's history and not voting.  If they don't vote and Obama loses, they have nobody to blame but themselves.  It would be a national tragedy if young people, minority or otherwise, don't show up at the polls.

That said, I have faith in young people this time around.  I think they will show up to vote in record numbers.  Shame on those who don't.

Instead of leaning.

There is a ton of negative Obama attack ads here in Florida.  I'm a registered Democrat and I get tons of them from the RNC in my mailbox.  Almost daily.  The one today is about Obama being weak on crime.

...I trust Charlie Cook a million times more than I trust CNN.

and highly publicized in the next day or two.

If that happened I think some of these states like SD, MT, GA, AZ, IN..could go for Obama, otherwise, I think they are all likely to fall to McCain.

I am less than convinced that NC & MO will go to Obama.

I am guessing Obama takes Kerry states plus:
Iowa
Indiana
Ohio
Virginia
Missouri
North Carolina
Nevada
Florida
New Mexico
Colorado

and the kicker, Arizona.

It is bold, I know. I believe that it is possible though races tend to tighten around now if they aren't already flushed out. I think the ground game Obama has is far superior and with a concerted effort to press the cold issues on people we can see some drift where the opposition is offering scandal and fear rather than sound policy. I also believe that this election might see, barring any scandal, a much wider Democratic swing not documented in polls do to outstanding youth votes and low account for minority and primary cellphone user in polling. I doubt anyone has a model to understand the voting dynamics for this year. Above all, the Republican brand is in the toilet and many are jumping ship already expecting an Obama win and also in defense of core Republican values instead of fringe theocratic and moral positions.

I predict that November 4th is election day, and that it ain't over until the polls close.

The polls during this years primaries were all over the place with lots of surprises. Some polls were more reliable than others and the current trends are interesting.

Its fun to project but concerned that voters may read too much into the polls and not vote. Rain meet parade.

In the meantime..back to the usual: calls, canvass, canvass calls.  

Based upon new information here in Florida on early voting, I now predict Florida will elect Obama our next President.

The reasoning is simple - over 2,000,000 Floridians have already voted in early voting which leans heavily in favor of Obama.  ~8,000,000 people voted in the last election and very few voted early.  

I believe that Obama already has at least 1,500,000 votes here in Florida and just about half-way to the number of votes Kerry had in 2004.

George W. Bush * (R)  3,955,656   52  
John F. Kerry    (D)  3,574,509   47  

My concern is no longer if Obama will take the state because I think he will.  My new concern is that polling stations can handle the increased volume of voters and count every vote.