2009 Preview: 48%-31% Prefer a Democratic Governor

By: Lowell
Published On: 10/29/2008 2:03:59 PM

I don't want to get distracted from 2008, but check this out for a minute:

In one of the first surveys to explore the 2009 political landscape, Democrats have a 17-point advantage when voters are asked which party they want to win the governor's race.

[...]

Of registered voters, 48 percent prefer a Democratic governor vs. 31 percent who want a Republican.

That's a pretty good headstart, I'd say, heading into 2009 for the Democrats. Also interesting, Tim Craig writes that "When self-identified Democrats and independents who lean Democratic were asked which candidate they prefer as the nominee, 16 percent named Moran, 12 percent McAuliffe and 11 percent Deeds."

Personally, I'm inclined to stay neutral in the 2009 governor's race (the Democratic primary part, not the race against Bob McDonnell of course), as I like all three candidates, so chalk me up as "undecided" right now - and maybe forever.

With that, we return to this year's election, now less than 6 days away. G'Obama!

UPDATE: Actually, here's a deal. Whichever Democratic candidate for governor convinces me that they will stand up for the environment and against corporations like Dominion and Bechtel will get my support in '09. :)


Comments



Sean Holihan (Sean Holihan - 10/29/2008 2:37:31 PM)
Heh.  


For Governor? (legacyofmarshall - 10/29/2008 4:59:10 PM)
He's got my vote.


Wow. Cool. (Roland the HTG - 10/29/2008 2:55:54 PM)
Now we just need to pick a candidate who won't screw that up. Let's talk about it November 5th.


I will be for (Populista - 10/29/2008 3:15:29 PM)
any candidate who focuses on a positive case for themself in the primary and doesn't bloody the other candidates. A 3 way race will only he helpful if it stays mostly positive. I'm inclined to support Deeds though and am very skeptical of McAuliffe.


some key points from the article (Nate Wilcox - 10/29/2008 3:46:41 PM)
GENERAL ELECTION 2009

- Democrats have a 17 point advantage over Republicans for Governor in 2009.

- Voters in Northern Virginia favor a Dem for Governor by 57% to 25%. In Hampton Roads they prefer a Dem by 54% to 32%.

- Independents prefer a Democrat to win the governor's race 40% percent to 25%.

PRIMARY ELECTION 2009

- Democrats and democratic leaning independents favor Moran at 16%, McAuliffe at 12% and Deeds at 11%.

- In Northern Virginia, Moran has 22 percent of the vote and McAuliffe 12 percent while Deeds draws only 6 percent. The poll finds the three candidates are separated by five percentage points or less in Hampton Roads, Richmond and the western part of the state.

- Moran holds an 8 point advantage over McAuliffe among African Americans and a seven-point advantage among white women.

I'm proud to consult for Brian Moran.



Moran's from Northern Virginia. In the absence of (stpickrell - 10/29/2008 4:05:12 PM)
any other real differences, I'll vote for him. None of the three are so obnoxious (a la Goode and to a lesser extent Moran) that I'd withhold my vote out of principle so I'm almost certain to vote blue in fall 2009.

Deeds ran for AG four years ago and may get votes from western VA for the same reason I'm voting for Moran.

I suspect there's some hazy (as in 5-15%) name recognition of McAuliffe across the state from the Clinton years. This may work for or against him.

The Dominion power line resonates in the northern Shenandoah Valley but voters in Northern Virginia may get annoyed if Dominion follows through on its threats to institute rolling blackouts or whatever. I suspect all four candidates (incl. McDonnell) will oppose it until there are actual consequences from it not being built.

The real tests of Virginia turning blue will be the Lt. Gov/AG races as well as the House races. I suspect the GOP will be run out of Fairfax entirely, gaining three (or four?) seats. Albo is toast, since he got the most egg on his face from the abusive driver fees; his opponent just needs to remind people of that constantly.

Not sure if any red teamers in Hampton Roads is in danger or if anyone else of either party got themselves in scandalous water.  



I am a Deeds man (thegools - 10/29/2008 4:41:45 PM)
unless someone wins me over.  

Given the funding of a regular campaign and the higher democratic registrations, he should be a shoe-in.  We know he can carry the state.  He damn near did in 2005 as a largely under-known under-funded candidate for attorney general, who was outspent 3-1 by McDonnell.
Plus he is born and raised in rural Virginia.  Know one will paint him as a Northern Virginia "elitest," nor a "foreigner" from Massachussetts.



The Lowell Pledge (legacyofmarshall - 10/29/2008 5:02:27 PM)
Count me in on that.  I'd say at first that McAuliffe, being a Richmond outsider, would be strongest to stand against Dominion, but I know that Brian and Creigh are both good men - God bless them if they can put the health and coastline of Virginians first and stop building coal plants - start CONSERVING ENERGY!

I can't believe this is even something Democrats, or any citizens of a Democracy, need to worry about in their leaders...



It's about standing up to corporations (Lowell - 10/29/2008 5:11:31 PM)
As John Edwards talked about during his presidential campaign, we need someone with BACKBONE who will stand up to these corporations that are running our government.  I've had it with this crap, whether it's Republicans or Democrats cozying up to the corporations.  It's also about getting serious about our energy and environmental challenges, not some b.s. window dressing or lame "plans" while the polar ice caps are melting, I'm talking about action, like Ah-nuld, Martin O'Malley, Charlie Crist, etc.


Brian Moran for me (Catzmaw - 10/29/2008 6:10:37 PM)
Brian's got an excellent record of accomplishments in the General Assembly and is a leader, clear and simple.  He's well-organized, well-funded, and well-known in the most populous areas of the Commonwealth.  He's been here for decades and I would think most people would not mind that he was born and raised in Massachusetts any more than they minded that Mark Warner and Tim Kaine came from other states, also.  It seems that Virginia voters are more discerning than to let such facts decide their vote.

We are lucky, indeed, to have such good candidates for the governorship, but aside from name recognition I'm not sure what McAuliffe brings to the table.  



Where's the managerial talent? (bamboo - 10/29/2008 7:32:33 PM)
Brian Moran is politics, politics, politics. Where's the thoughtful expertise and calm managerial hand we need in Richmond? Where are the qualifications other than a knack for campaigning and winning elections? If that's all the Dems have next year, then go for it. At least his heart's in the right place on most of the issues important to his party. But it's tough to get enthused about such a candidate.  


That's an odd response, and somewhat apropos of nothing, (Catzmaw - 10/29/2008 8:03:35 PM)
but I'll answer.

Brian has not been all politics, all the time, as you imply.  Instead, he founded and ran his own law firm after a successful stint as a prosecutor, and before that as a judicial clerk.  He's chairman of the Democratic caucus in the General Assembly and played a pivotal role in funding multiple Democratic campaigns across the state in addition to making dozens of appearances on behalf of candidates for public office from Jim Webb to many others.  He did not start out as a politician.  Instead, Mark Warner recognized his talent and should be thanked for encouraging him to enter politics.  

Your comment implies there's something pedestrian or dull and single-minded about Brian Moran.  I think most who have met him would strongly disagree.  He's charming, witty, polite, calm, and very personable.  He has demonstrated his organizational abilities through his successful rise into the position he currently occupies, through his political organization, and through the undramatic, calm approach he takes.  He has been very successful in working across the aisle.

Perhaps you can be more specific about your objection?



Wondering if you could elaborate? (suzden - 10/30/2008 7:09:19 PM)
I was wondering if you could provide examples of Brian working across the aisle?