Cook Political Report Upgrades VA-02 and VA-05

By: Lowell
Published On: 10/28/2008 7:11:44 PM

From today's Cook Political Report:

VA-02 Thelma Drake Lean Republican to Toss Up

VA-05 Virgil Goode Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Also, check out Cook's analysis of these two districts after the "flip."

VA-02 Thelma Drake Lean Republican to Toss Up

GOP Rep. Thelma Drake has hammered Democratic former diplomat Glenn Nye on his residence, pointing to a homestead exemption for a house he and his brother own in Washington, DC. But she has been unable to establish any sort of significant lead, and the Norfolk Virginian Pilot gave Nye a significant endorsement. After endorsing Drake in 2006, the newspaper criticized her as "among the most doctrinaire conservatives in Congress" this time.

Democratic Senate candidate Mark Warner's coattails are spooking Tidewater Republicans who worry that Drake has never really firmed up her base in the largest component of the district, Virginia Beach. This race should be considered a tossup once again.

VA-05 Virgil Goode Likely Republican to Lean Republican

...the Southside portions of the 5th CD are in economic shambles and Perriello is the first candidate who has ever advertised substantially against Goode. Perriello claims in his ads that Goode supports a 23 percent across-the-board sales tax, while Goode has taken to the air to lambast Perriello on illegal immigration and gay marriage.

To the extent that Obama wins Virginia by a large margin, his biggest gains over normal Democratic performance will be in suburbs and exurbs outside this district's boundaries. But Perriello is counting on a huge turnout on the part of African-Americans in Southside and college students in Charlottesville and Albemarle County, the only areas within the district Obama will win by an overwhelming margin.

Even if this district were tied at the presidential level, Goode could probably count on the support of more than a handful of Obama supporters in Southside. But Goode's old-school campaign tactics are causing some Republicans concern, and the DCCC is giving Perriello modest late help.


Comments



a close race (Grenadier - 10/28/2008 7:39:32 PM)
These two races are making me very nervous. Both Nye and Perriello have run excellent campaigns, and their opponents have made complete jackasses of themselves on too many issues to count, especially Goode. The DCCC should be ponying up a lot more for these districts (I know I have!)


VCU Poll Internals (uva08 - 10/28/2008 7:39:48 PM)
The VCU poll internals give us cause for optimism in the 5th.  In the Southcentral region of the state, they have Obama down by one point.  Other polls have also showed a relatively close race in Southside.  If this plays out, Goode will not have any coattails to hold onto.  As a matter of fact, the opposite may be true when you consider how Obama and especially Warner may do (a last minute tour with Warner or even an ad with him would likely do wonders).  As we all know, all Perriello has to do is keep things somewhat close down there.  Obama will probably win the Charlottesville-Albemarle area (about 30 percent of the district) by about twenty points or more.  If Perriello can win a similar margin up here and Southside is as close on the congressional level as it is on the presidential level, then Perriello will win this thing.  I had my doubts at first, but I truly believe this is a possibility.    

Goode has been so utterly ineffective and embarrassing.  His position in an ever decreasing minority party will make him even more so.  He isn't in touch with the economic values of most of the people in the 5th which is why you will hear little substance out of him.  We can do this 5th!



But Damn! (Granny Doc - 10/28/2008 7:49:57 PM)
They still think Virgil is, "Such a nice Boy!"  Why these people refuse to link their economic hardship with the policies of the Republican Party continues to give me a headache.


True... (uva08 - 10/28/2008 9:45:15 PM)
There are a lot of voters out there who will keep voting on things that do nothing to put a roof over their head, money in their pockets, food on the table, ensure our security, or restore our standing in the world.  However, this is one of the first times a Democrat has actually had enough money to reach out to voters and present their case.

Also, you must remember that we do not need ALL of those voters.  We don't even need a majority of them to win (yes, it would be nice).  Hopefully Perriello's message resonated with working and middle class voters in Southside.  Hopefully enough of them will recognize that all the supposed "niceness" of Virgil doesn't make up for his record and won't do anything to help them out in the long run.  Virgil has done little to nothing to ensure residents in the 5th have a job so why should we keep sending him to DC to have one that pays over 100K a year?



BTW (uva08 - 10/28/2008 9:51:04 PM)
A new Roanoke College poll confirms the idea that Obama may be doing relatively well in the Southside region of the state.  Again, Virgil won't have any coattails to hang onto this year.


No 10th huh? (legacyofmarshall - 10/28/2008 7:56:52 PM)
As much as a lot of people are going to split tickets and vote Obama-Warner-Wolf, the 10th is way way way (way) friendlier to Dems than the 5th, or the 2nd for that matter.  It will likely go 65% for Warner and maybe 55%+ for Obama, even if Feder underperforms the other Dems by 10% she'd still win.  Not to say that she will (under or overperform), but that likelihood alone should sober people like Charlie Cook into taking it off the "safe R" list.  Furthermore - it's not like Judy has no money - she has Wolf matched dollar for dollar - impressive for a non elected official vs. a 318-year incumbent.


true... (Bwana - 10/28/2008 8:20:12 PM)
...but in cash on hand she is way down (-600K as of the 10.15.08 report), and who knows what the polling is...which is perhaps why the DCCC in their last go 'round slid lots of money to the Democratic candidates in Va/02-05-11, but not Va-10.


10th better for Dems than the 2nd? (DanG - 10/28/2008 11:11:32 PM)
I do believe that Phil Kellam did a LOT better than Judy Feder last year with similar funds.

The 2nd District is still pretty bad for Statewide and National, but on local candidates, we're getting better.  And remember, it wasn't long ago (eight years) that the second had Owen Pickett.  How long has it been for the tenth?

I'll make a prediction right here: neither Nye nor Feder wins.  BUT, I predict that Nye does better, and sets Thelma up for defeat in 2010, when no "top of the ticket" like Allen or McCain can save her.



Top saves her? (legacyofmarshall - 10/29/2008 9:39:00 AM)
The 2nd District is 22% African American.  I have an inkling that no matter what the results, 2010 will be a harder time for a Dem. to win there.

Living in the area, I see the ads for Drake and they disgust me.  While Nye has gone increasingly negative, I know he's a far more honorable and inteliigent person and I feel very strongly that just like in the 10th and the 5th, Virginia would be far, far better off with the challenger winning.  I wish Mr. Nye the best.

So, if John McCain "saves" Thelma Drake, I'll slap myself.

I'll make a prediction right here, too: Drake and McCain will run about even in the 2nd, that might be 51%, might be 49% (hopefully the latter).

Side note: Obama has an office on the Eastern Shore, gotta love that.