New 2006 VA Senate poll - Allen under 50%

By: Corey
Published On: 2/14/2006 2:00:00 AM

A new Rasmussen poll released today shows Republican Senator George Allen leading  both Harris Miller (48%-35%) and James Webb (49%-37%) in the 2006 Senate Race.  However, perhaps most significant in the poll is that Allen polls under 50% against both candidates.  Furthermore Miller has gained ground since last month's poll showed him trailing 57%-27% just after his announcement, Webb was not included in that poll.  Webb announced his candidacy last week.

"Senator Allen's favorable numbers have also declined since January. Sixty-one percent (61%) now view him favorably; in January, 70% viewed him favorably....Only about a third of voters view either Miller or Webb favorably. Another third or so 'not sure' of either man, meaning that one of the key aspects of this election will be who defines how the challengers are viewed by most voters."


Comments



I know its' early, b (newbie - 4/4/2006 11:32:35 PM)
I know its' early, but it would definately be nice to know what's going on with the Webb campaign, and ian is right. Hey insiders, feed us some morsels...


ian: Agreed, am curi (Arlington Mike - 4/4/2006 11:32:35 PM)
ian: Agreed, am curious as to what they have ahead in the short- and long-term.  At this point, Webb has the ability to define himself, before the opposition jumps in.  And he also has the ability to define the race, at least in this initial stage, raising attention to the issues that he wants to talk about before others sidetrack the discussion.  You can almost run this as a branding opportunity (can you tell I work in PR?) for the candidate.

Of note: Gallup poll today states that 62 % of Americans surveyed are unsatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.  "There is a better way."



One of the key thing (Arlington Mike - 4/4/2006 11:32:35 PM)
One of the key things for the blog world, third parties, PACs, etc. to do in this campaign is create an impression of Allen - a bad one.  For those who are mildly aware, or unaware, it's hard to disapprove of Allen, because he's so irrelevant - there's been no big issue that cast him in a poor light, nothing that he has done that makes you stand up and say "I disapprove" if you are a casual voter.  So he walks around with 60% approval ratings.

Webb and/or Miller will need to focus on a positive campaign, offering positive solutions, but I think there is a lot of room for others to stand up and say, "Allen voted for this, refused to vote for that," etc., and tell the story of his Bush-camp politics. 

This is going to be a heckuva campaign.  I'm looking forward to volunteering.



"Fifty-six percent ( (DanG - 4/4/2006 11:32:35 PM)
"Fifty-six percent (56%) of Virginia's likely voters say Iraq is a more important issue affecting their vote than the economy; 40% say the economy is more important."

That's pretty key to me in deciding who gets the nomination.



Re: Mike, Agreed, an (Corey - 4/4/2006 11:32:35 PM)
Re: Mike, Agreed, and I would expect to see a bump for Webb similar to the one Miller saw a month after his announcement.


If I'm Webb, one of (Arlington Mike - 4/4/2006 11:32:35 PM)
If I'm Webb, one of the first things I do after I officially launch my campaign with a big event is go on a MAJOR tour of Virginia, something like "50 towns in 15 days."  Get local buzz in each one of those towns by meeting people, get some media coverage in hometown newspapers (and maybe some coverage in major state papers like Norfolk, Richmond for going on such a tour) and get your name out there.  Define yourself, before others define you. 


This poll seems to l (William - 4/4/2006 11:32:35 PM)
This poll seems to lend some credence to the theory I posted yesterday in the DJW group - that while there's no election cycle, Virginians have this general warm fuzzy about Allen, but now that it's getting to crunch time, they're looking a little harder and having trouble finding reasons to back up that feeling.

I think a lot of people know Allen is a conservative who's had a lot of political success here in Virginia, and when they hear his name, it's usually preceded by "potential 2008 presidential candidate", so people realize he's something of a star within the party, so he must be good, right?

But when you put up another guy next to him who the voters of the commonwealth can also identify with and truly respect (ahem), now they have to search for reasons to back Allen.  And there isn't much.



Webb has got an oppo (valley iconoclast - 4/4/2006 11:32:36 PM)
Webb has got an opportunity that very few politicians have.  He is working with a clean slate.  If he spends the time between now and June establishing who he is, it will free him to take on Allen directly. 

below 50%, I keep saying this is going to be the surprise election of the season.  It may the the race that decides who controls the Senate.



I like a of the idea (Kip - 4/4/2006 11:32:36 PM)
I like a of the ideas posted here. Let us hear what is going on with the Webb campaign. They should definitely kick it into high gear. Also I believe at this time Kaine was down 12 points to Kilgore. The exact margin of the Allen / Webb matchup.



Great news! (Doug in Mount Vernon - 4/4/2006 11:32:36 PM)