CNN: McCain Campaign Believes NM, IA, CO "Gone"

By: Lowell
Published On: 10/20/2008 10:02:02 PM

Is this actually an insane "strategy" or does it just sound like an insane "strategy?" I mean, let's get this straight: the entire McCain scenario for victory on November 4 comes down to winning the seemingly solid "blue" state Pennsylvania, where Obama leads by double digits? Huh? What am I missing here?

Well, with two weeks left, Wolf, they are making the tough decisions inside the McCain camp, and they are beginning to look at some states that they thought they could win, some states they even thought they had to win, and beginning to think that they are drifting away.

Now let me tell you this right off the bat. Most people top in the McCain campaign now believe New Mexico and Iowa are gone, that Barack Obama will win New Mexico and Iowa. They are now off the dream list of the McCain campaign. More interestingly, most top people inside the McCain campaign now think Colorado is gone, that that is now beyond their reach...

So they are now finishing with a very risky strategy. Win Florida...win Nevada...and here is the biggest risk of all -- they say, yes they have to win North Carolina, yes they have to win Ohio, yes they have to win Virginia, trailing or dead-even in all those states right now. But they are betting Wolf on coming back and taking the state of Pennsylvania. It has become the critical state now in the McCain electoral scenario. And they are down 10, 12, even 14 points in some polls there. But they say as Colorado, Iowa and other states drift away, they think they have to take a big state; 21 electoral votes in Pennsylvania, Wolf, watch that state over the next few weeks.  There's still some debate within the McCain campaign over this strategy, but they have decided to pull some resources from other states and invest them heavily in a blue state, Pennsylvania, where right now they are way behind.


Comments



Total head fake (Rob - 10/20/2008 10:06:10 PM)
They've gotta be trying to get Obama to shift some attention back to this blue state ... right?


Remember, these guys picked Palin (Hugo Estrada - 10/20/2008 11:00:22 PM)
And they also had the great idea about suspending the campaign to save the economy only to try to stop talking about the economy a week or two after McCain saved it.

In other words, they really may be this maverickly stupid.

The good news for us is that the Obama campaign seem to know how to run to win, so I am doubtful that they will change their strategy by these announcements.



Maybe (Pain - 10/21/2008 6:02:32 AM)

Maybe they just don't have the gas money to keep flying back out west? :)


I hope this is true (Ron1 - 10/20/2008 10:25:30 PM)
This is stupidity on a mind-boggling scale, but I don't put it past their "brain trust" at this point.

Pennsylvania is currently +15 for Obama according to the pollster.com average -- more Obama than ANY of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Washington, or Oregon.

Perhaps they realize that Virginia is going blue, so they HAVE to flip a state as large as Pennsylvania to have any chance. If that's the case, then they should be abandoning all of Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, and the Kerry states and pouring everything they have into PA, OH, FL, NC, MO, and NV. You'd think they'd also be pouring massive resources into NH and ME to give themselves some hope of a shot.



That's what I'm thinking (DanG - 10/21/2008 12:19:36 AM)
"Perhaps they realize that Virginia is going blue, so they HAVE to flip a state as large as Pennsylvania to have any chance."

I think they've realized that Virginia and Nevada are both likely to go blue.  That's 18 Electoral votes.  If you include Colorado, which also looks likelym we're up to 27.  If McCain wants to have a chance, he's got to compensate.  If he loses all of those states but steals PA, it's 6 electoral votes in Obama's favor.  If he wins CO, but loses VA, NV, and PA, it's 29 in Obama's favor.  See the math there?  And remember, both Missouri and North Carolina are looking good for us right now, while Florida and Ohio (which McCain must win) are legitimate toss-ups, and he can't be certain about either of them with Obama's get out the vote.  McCain can't win with the Bush Coalition of tiny states.  He needs some big ones.  This is very, very risky, and I'm not quite sure it'll pay off...



If Pennsylvania didn't go for Bush in 2004 (notjohnsmosby - 10/21/2008 12:50:19 AM)
What possible reason would it go for McCain now?  The economy is worse, Dems did very well there in 2006, just as many anti-war people there.  I guess it makes for a good excuse when they do loose.  "If only we had a few more days in PA".  Better than loosing by the death of a dozen cuts as CO and NV go down the tubes.

Going after PA while FL and OH twist in the wind, that's just stupid.  No Rep defensive Senate race downballot in PA, if McCain is in Bob Dole mode now, he should pour resources into North Carolina to try and save Libby Dole's ass.  Even GA and MS to save Chambliss and whoever out in MS.

I would say his chances of winning PA are less than Michigan, Wisconsin and Minn.  Just weird all around.



While I think this will fail... (sndeak - 10/21/2008 8:28:35 AM)
Let's take a look at this...I'm gonna try to get into McCain's head...ugh

I think he is going the OH,PA,IN,FL,NV,NH route. That will give him 271. It's another hail mary, but honestly, what does he have left?



Race and "values" (Teddy - 10/21/2008 5:09:31 PM)
like abortion/right to life, and endless screeds about "socialism" will be the menu of attack from now on. Why do you think all the loyalists are making kamikaze attacks about "real America?" What gallant suicide bombers Bachman et al are! With Obama in Hawaii on family business, they will really pour on the coals.