Rasmussen: Obama 54%-McCain 44% in Virginia

By: Lowell
Published On: 10/20/2008 12:32:47 PM

Rasmussen's new poll results for Virginia just came out, and they're looking good:

Barack Obama has opened his biggest lead yet over John McCain in Virginia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama now leading 54% to 44%. The Democrat leads 51% to 48% among men and 57% to 42% among women.

...The Democrat has now been ahead of McCain in five straight Virginia polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports.

Again, this is good news (for what it's worth), but remember - the only poll that matters here in Virginia (except for the 6% or so that will probably vote before election day) is the one on November 4. All these pre-election polls showing an Obama lead are just like saying that the Redskins are winning by a touchdown after the third quarter. As we all know, a lot can happen in one quarter of football. Likewise, a lot can happen in two weeks of politics, and something tells me this is going to be a nail biter in the end.

With that, back to phone banking, donating, persuading, tabling, blogging, or whatever it is you're doing to help elect Barack Obama the next president of the United States! :)

P.S. This poll was conducted last Thursday, obviously prior to the Colin Powell endorsement yesterday.

UPDATE: Also, I'm waiting to see a detailed breakdown of "real" vs "unreal" Virginia, "Pro-America" vs. "Anti-America" Virginia, and whatever the opposite of "Communist Country" is. :)

UPDATE #2: Rasmussen has Mark Warner beating Jim Gilmore 61%-36%. According to Rasmussen, "The only real question in the Virginia Senate race seems to be whether Democratic candidate Mark Warner will have coattails enough to help swing the state into Barack Obama's column on Election Day."

Comments



Thursday? (legacyofmarshall - 10/20/2008 1:16:54 PM)
Where does it say that this was conducted Thursday?

Normally Rasmussen polls Sunday, releases Monday.  Though those results are normally out at 5 pm so I'd believe it's older...



See (Lowell - 10/20/2008 2:02:15 PM)
here.


get to work!!!!!!!!! (lgb30856 - 10/20/2008 1:31:02 PM)
Work like heck like we are 10 points down!!!!!!!!!!


We need to make sure everyone can vote (Susan Mariner - 10/20/2008 1:49:37 PM)
Please vote absentee if you are eligible.  We, who are highly informed, know how long the lines will be and how that may cause problems for our voters to be able to vote.  Please vote early if you can to help reduce the length of the line for others.    


Credible numbers? (TheGreenMiles - 10/20/2008 1:54:56 PM)
If Obama wins Virginia by 10 points I will change the name of my blog from The Green Miles to Drill, Baby, Drill.


it does seem hard to believe (bcat - 10/20/2008 2:01:15 PM)
But look at these numbers going back to 10/1:

(Today) Rasmussen O+10
(10/15) CNU O+6
(10/15) CNN/Time O+10
(10/13) FOX News/Rasmussen O+3
(10/8) PPP (D) O+8
(10/6) FOX News/Rasmussen O+2
(10/6) SurveyUSA O+10
(10/6) Suffolk O+12

I don't know what's going on. That looks more like Minnesota than Virginia.



Ha, all the more incentive for us to work (Lowell - 10/20/2008 2:03:06 PM)
hard and ensure a 10-point Obama victory on 11/4. :)


Fortunately, I Don't Sense Any Complacency (BP - 10/20/2008 2:24:53 PM)
Several months ago, I thought Obama would win a Webb-style, half-point victory here in Virginia.  Now, I think I was underestimating the wisdom of my fellow Real Virginians(tm).  

I believe a ten point victory in Virginia is well within reach.  My goal is to do what I can not just to help Obama win, but to increase the margin in Virginia to the point where Virginia is called for Obama at 7:01 PM on election night.  Even though he won't have 270 by 7:01 PM, if Virginia is called for Obama right after the polls close, we will have, at least unofficially, put him over the top.  That's enough to help keep me motivated.



No complacency (Pain - 10/20/2008 2:35:47 PM)

I agree with you, I want VA called for Obama in VA early so I can get some sleep, unlike when Webb won I was up until 2am. :)

But, anyway.  I've been spending weekends at the campaign office in my town, and there is no sense of complacency there.  This past weekend we kicked it up a notch with the GOTV ground game and it was rockin the house.

If anyone can't donate time, or money, bring donuts! :)



conservative noise... (jasonVA - 10/20/2008 3:58:46 PM)
I find it hard to get very comfortable with any kind of polling lead in Virginia.  Our local newspaper, the Potomac News, is just crammed with letters from conservatives who sound like they're losing their minds.  And I feel like others I know personally are beginning to stir.


Another poll (legacyofmarshall - 10/20/2008 4:10:25 PM)
Survey USA says McCain is doing well because he's only down by 6 in Virginia!

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

The big difference between this and the Rasmussen poll (and the last SurveyUSA poll) is that McCain here leads among men.

Obama still leads among independents and big time among moderates.  It would appear, however, that McCain is indeed winning "Real Virginia."  Too bad Virginia without any sort of prefix (Northern, Southern, Central, West, Real) is the one with 13 Electoral Votes.



Also (legacyofmarshall - 10/20/2008 4:16:44 PM)
Apparently pollster.com has picked up on the SurveyUSA poll, and has not seen the Rasmussen one, but even the former was enough to make Virginia a "strong" blue state.

I'm not advocating complacency, I'm just saying that when FiveThirtyEight, Pollster, and RealClearPolitics all have Virginia going to Obama fairly strong, maybe it's time for MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, etc. to stop being such wusses and admit that right now, Obama holds more than 270 votes.

They not afraid of saying the election is over because they like being cautious, they're afraid of saying it's over because then people wouldn't be glued to the tv thinking it's a tied game right now.  I see Chuck Todd with his "Obama 264" every single day, and have for several weeks now, saying "McCain has to win all of these states."  Well yeah, he does, just that Virginia is not a toss-up!

Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina - those are the true toss-ups.



Ohio (jasonVA - 10/20/2008 4:23:46 PM)
I'll be really disappointed if Ohio goes for McCain.  Its the kind of state that has really been hurt by eight years of Republican rule.


Not me (Dave N. - 10/21/2008 7:49:22 AM)
I'm glad that the MSM is being cautious; I don't want anyone getting complacent and thinking that this thing is wrapped up yet. I'd love to see a reverse "Reagan-Mondale" this year, but I know that ain't gonna happen. But I want Obama to win as many states as possible, and the only way to do that is to scare the fence-sitters and undecideds into thinking that it's not over yet.

Even with a 10-point lead now in VA, I won't rest until I see our state is officially colored blue in the maps on 11/4.  



Opposite of "Communist Country" (Roland the HTG - 10/20/2008 4:22:53 PM)
I guess that would be Fascist Country?

Good to see these numbers. It'll be an interesting two weeks



Robo-call backlash? (JPTERP - 10/20/2008 10:18:11 PM)
I don't know if these were sent out throughout the state, but I could see this having a negative impact on McCain's numbers similar to Kilgore's Hitler ad.  Voters don't mind contrasts, still there's a line as far as negative advertising goes that you can't cross.  The Ayers and liberal Dems robo-call had more than a whiff of desperation.