State of the Senate - 16 days to go - Can the Democrats get to 60?

By: Dan
Published On: 10/19/2008 2:36:11 PM

In January of 2009, Virginia is almost certain to be represented by two Democratic Senators. Virginia will be fortunate to not just have two Democrats, but to have two men considered among the most qualified and well-respected public officials in the Democratic Party.  

Mark Warner's lead is insurmountable over Jim Gilmore. However, a Warner victory is only one of nine victories the Democrats need to get to the critical 60-40 majority. At this point, there are no longer any Senate Democrats in danger of losing their seat, unless a major "Tim Mahoney" like scandal breaks in Louisiana or New Jersey.  Assuming this is not the case, Republicans will have to fight exclusively on their turf to keep from losing total control of the Senate. At present the Democrats have 50 Senators, the Republicans 48.  Bernie Sanders (I-VT) caucuses with the Democrats.  Joe Lieberman (I-CT) pals around with Republicans, and may caucus with them in 2009.  We can assume for now that nine Senators gets Democrats in the driver seat for policymaking for at least the next two years.  If Barack Obama capitalizes on the excellent momentum he has garnered and wins the White House, the Democrats have all the chips in place to move America forward the way they envision.  

Below the flip is a look at the Senate races in brief.  Can the Democrats get to 60?
Democrats in the driver seat
Democrats are in the driver's seat in Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia.  Popular Congressman Mark Udall is leading by high single digits in Colorado. His cousin Congressman Tom Udall is crushing his competition in New Mexico.  Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is easily defeating John Sununu in a rematch of the ethically marred 2002 campaign, in which Republican operatives went to jail for their role in dirty tricks to swing the race to Sununu.

That gets us to 55 seats for the Democratic Caucus.  

Democrats looking strong, but victory still in doubt
In Alaska, Mark Begich, the popular Anchorage Mayor (a much bigger city than Wasilla) is leading long time Senator Ted Stevens.  Instead of campaigning, Stevens is spending his time in court fighting his indictment on seven counts of making false statements on his Senate financial disclosure forms.  Yet, Begich is struggling to retain his lead, and is only leading by between two and five points.  Begich is still projected to win, but it will be close.

In Minnesota, Al Franken has not only closed the gap between himself and Norm Coleman, he has taken the lead.  However, he is still polling in the low-40s.  Franken is counting on Independent Dean Barkley to cut into Coleman's votes more than his.  Barkely actually served in the U.S. Senate for seven weeks in the lame duck session after the 2002 elections, when then Governor Jesse Ventura appointed him to the job after the untimely death of Paul Wellstone.  With Minnesota likely to go to Obama in the Presidential race, this helps Franken.  However, as an icon of liberal radio and known for his books slamming Republican pundits, Franken is still seen as a partisan.  This race is now leaning towards Al Franken, but his lead is precarious.  

In North Carolina, State Senator Kay Hagan has surprised many by taking control of the Senate race against political heavyweight Elizabeth Dole.  The wife of the former Senator and Presidential candidate Bob Dole has immersed herself in the Republican leadership that has been consistently losing support over the past few years.  Now, she is seen as a partisan, while Hagan is seen as a North Carolinian.  Hagan leads by at least three points in most polls, and by more than five in other polls.  If Obama wins this state, expect Hagan to win easily.  Even if Obama is within five points in North Carolina, Hagan is likely to win.  Still, the race isn't yet in the bag for Democrats.

In Oregon, Republican centrist Gordon Smith had been crushing his opponent, Oregon state House speaker Jeff Merkley for most of the year.  However, Merkley has run a strong, patient campaign; hammering away at Gordon Smith and increasing his own name recognition.  Of course, as a leader in Oregon Democratic politics, Merkley already has name recognition on his side.  With Obama's numbers climbing in Oregon, Merkley finds himself in a better position than he probably ever hoped to be in at this stage of the campaign.  Still, Oregon voters are fickle.  This race looks good for the Democrats, but still isn't in the bag.  Merkley leads by three of four points.

Now, lets say the Democrats win these four seats.  They'll have 59 seats in the Democratic Caucus.  They need one more seat to get to 60.  They have three realistic opportunities to do this.

Senate races on the cusp
In Georgia, Republican Saxby Chambliss is falling fast in the polls.  If you remember, Saxby Chambliss is the first term Senator who defeated decorated Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland in 2002.  In that campaign, his campaign strategy was to attack this man who gave his limbs to his country, for his lack of patriotism.  This included pairing pictures of Cleland with Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein.  These fear tactics aren't as effective anymore, so Chambliss has to run an actual campaign on the issues.  This is not the same Georgia as it was in 2002 or even 2004 when Bush defeated Kerry by 17 points.  Obama is expected to keep the race well within 10 points, and possibly within 5 points.  This spells big trouble for Chambliss who faces popular former Assemblyman and 2006 candidate for Lt. Governor, Jim Martin.  Martin is also a Vietnam veteran, unlike Chambliss who was given five student deferments and a medical deferment for a football injury that kept him out of the war.  Martin is now within two or three points of Chambliss, with Libertarian candidate, attorney Allen Buckley, polling well.  Buckley may be the spoiler for Chambliss and give the Democrats their 60 seats.

If Georgia doesn't pan out, there is always Kentucky.  Republican Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell has found himself in a very tough race with prominent Kentucky businessman Bruce Lunsford. Lunsford has been creeping up in the polls, now within three or four points.  McConnell has demonstrated himself as a partisan and his candidacy may be a referendum on the Republican Party, which has lost a lot of support in Kentucky in recent years; with the meltdown of former Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher who lost by 17 points to now Governor, Democrat Steve Beshear in the 2007 Gubernatorial election.

If neither Georgia nor Kentucky pans out, then how about Mississippi?  Former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove is running a strong campaign against Congressman Roger Wicker.  Mississippi appears to be far better for Obama in 2008 than for Kerry in 2004.  Obama will not win Mississippi, but he will likely help the Musgrove by increasing Democratic turnout.  When Roger Wicker left his own Congressional seat to run for Governor, a special election was held to fill the seat.  Roger Wicker's constituents apparently thought so poorly of his service, they decided to elect a Democrat to replace him in his open seat.  Wicker and Musgrove are in a dead heat.

Democrats may win either one of these three seats and can get to 60.  

Other seats of interest
Texas is the only other race where Democrats have a fighting chance.  Democratic state house representative from Houston, Rick Noriega, is running a strong campaign against incumbent John Cornyn.  Cornyn has been an absolute embarrassment to the Republican Party.  From his voracious attacks against the gay community to his suggestion that "activist" judges should expect violence for their stance on social issues, he has put his foot consistently in his mouth.

Even in Texas, Cornyn consistently polls at or below 50%.  Noriega has been inching up in the polls.  He probably doesn't have enough momentum to win, but it is still possible for him to win.  

In Maine, Republican moderate Susan Collins has done a good job fending off Democratic Congressman Tom Allen.  Her lead looks to be insurmountable.  Democrats also have compelling candidates in Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, although none of them are likely to have a chance to win.  

 


Comments



I picked 59 seats (Dan - 10/19/2008 4:58:54 PM)
I think Democrats will pick up 59 seats.  I do believe they will get at least 58 with Hagan winning in NC and at least two of the other lean Democrat races: Franken, Merkley, and Begich ending up in the Democrats hands.  I think probably that one of those three will lose, however.  I believe Mississippi will go to Musgrove.  That makes 59.  I am very anxious for election night.  I will be watching TV and my computer, instead of attending a rally.  I want to see it all go down for the GOP in Congress and the Senate.  Thankfully, I live on the West Coast, so I can start watching early in the evening.


Where do you put Lieberman (Eric - 10/20/2008 1:17:58 PM)
in this calculation?  You mention the very real possibility that he'll go with the Republicans above - would that make him the tipping point?  

As much as pains me to think it, we may need him on our side in order to get anything done.   Either that or we'll need to reach out to the few remaining moderate Republicans and convince them that our Country is more important than their party.



See the text (Dan - 10/20/2008 3:14:47 PM)
I wrote "At present the Democrats have 50 Senators, the Republicans 48.  Bernie Sanders (I-VT) caucuses with the Democrats.  Joe Lieberman (I-CT) pals around with Republicans, and may caucus with them in 2009.  We can assume for now that nine Senators gets Democrats in the driver seat for policymaking for at least the next two years."

We assume Lieberman is not on our side in general.  However, on some issues he will be on our side, like Climate Change and Energy, health care, and support for autism research and other social good issues.  On Iraq and other foreign policy issues, he will be with the Republicans.  

59-41 assumes Lieberman is number 41