RK Poll: 98% Believe Connolly Will Beat Fimian; Majority Predict Nye Over Drake

By: Lowell
Published On: 10/18/2008 6:12:35 AM

Another day, another RK (unscientific) poll of our readers.  The full results are after the "flip," but in short:

*98% believe Democrats will win the 11th CD (Gerry Connolly over Keith Fimian).

*57% believe Democrats will win the 11th CD plus the 2nd CD (Glenn Nye over Thelma Drake).

*34% believe Democrats will win the 5th CD (Tom Perriello over Virgil Goode).

*26% believe Democrats will win the 10th CD (Judy Feder over Frank Wolf)

*3% believe Democrats will win more than these 4 seats, while 2% believe Democrats will pick up no seats in Virginia on 11/4.

In sum, RK readers are pretty much unanimous that Gerry Connolly will beat Keith Fimian, with a majority predicting a Glenn Nye win over Thelma Drake as well. About 1/3 of RK readers predict at Tom Perriello upset win over Virgil Goode in the 5th, and about 1/4 of RK readers expect Judy Feder to unseat Frank Wolf.

Please feel free to use this as an open thread on congressional races in Virginia this year. Also, I think it's pretty obvious where we need to be focusing our efforts the next two weeks, in addition to winning Virginia for Barack Obama (I'm assuming that Mark Warner and Gerry Connolly are essentially 100% locks): the 2nd, the 5th, and the 10th. Thanks.

Comments



Win or Lose Periello Campaign is a Triumph (Josh - 10/18/2008 9:25:59 AM)
Tom has run an incredible campaign in the 5th.  Nobody thought it could be remotely competitive but Tom's giving VBad a run for his money.   Tom's message of service has really caught on.  I see an upset in the 5th.

Judy's doing great things, too.  Tying Frank Wolf to McCain's idiotic Healthcare plan is a masterstroke.  



Not so, Josh - Some thought Perriello/Goode it would be competitive (aznew - 10/18/2008 10:28:53 AM)
I agree that Tom has run an incredible campaign. But, as to your statement

Nobody thought it could be remotely competitive

I'm going to do something I rarely do here and toot my own horn:

I wrote this diary, "The Myth of Virgil Goode's Electoral Invinciblility," back in April:

http://www.raisingkaine.com/sh...

In May, I explained the inherent weakness in Goode's re-election attempt this cycle:

http://www.raisingkaine.com/sh...

And here, in June, I spoke about the reasons why Tom Perriello's campaign would be successful:

http://www.raisingkaine.com/sh...



"Nobody thought it could be remotely competitive" (Lowell - 10/18/2008 10:33:49 AM)
Huh?  I know a lot of people, myself included, who have thought it would be "remotely competitive" for months now.  Note, I didn't say I thought Perriello would necessarily win - although he could - just that it would be "remotely competitive."  Speak for yourself!


On January 9, 2008... (Lowell - 10/18/2008 10:39:44 AM)
...I wrote: "Tom's progressive, faith-based approach, combined with his impressive fundraising, could very well give Virgil Goode a run for his money like he's never seen....with lots of help from people like you, Tom Perriello will defeat Virgil "So Bad He's" Goode and be elected the next Congressman from the 5th CD this November."


On January 22, 2008... (Lowell - 10/18/2008 10:41:14 AM)
...the DCCC wrote:

"This is a race that we are definitely watching," said Kyra Jennings, spokeswoman for the committee's South region, which stretches from Florida to Maryland. "Perriello is a real change from Virgil Goode. Perriello has the ability to be competitive."