Tom's closing the gap!

By: Roland the HTG
Published On: 10/8/2008 12:59:22 PM

New SurveyUSA Poll for WDBJ in Roanoke has good news for the Fifth.

Republican Virgil Goode leads Democratic attorney Tom Perriello 55% to 42%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WJLA-TV Washington DC. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll conducted two months ago, Goode is down 9 points; Perriello is up 12.

Poll Results

That's a twenty-one point swing in two months. Also, from looking at the crosstabs, it seems SurveyUSA has, again, underpolled the African-American vote. 17% is absurdly low, considering the district is 25% African-American; factor in the huge registration push Obama has been making in Danville (17 staffers as of mid-August) and other areas (50,000 new registrants in the district as a whole), and Tom's numbers are likely to improve even more.

Thirteen points is still tough to overcome. Tom and the people of the Fifth District need your help. This weekend is my fall break from U.Va.; I'm headed back down to Southside for a few days to keep getting the message out. Those of you in Boucher's district, head over to Martinsville for a day or two and help take back the Fifth. This race is winnable, but it's going to take the best efforts of all of us to get it done.


Comments



I'd like to see Virgil below 50%. (Science Virginian - 10/8/2008 2:07:40 PM)
But there are a few encouraging signs, including the undersampling of African-Americans: 5.5% said that they were Goode supporters but might change their minds. If most of those folks break for Tom, that puts Virgil at around 50%. Also, this was a likely votor model. I don't know SUSA's likely voter model, but it could undersample first-time voters and young voters (the only age group that Tom is winning).

Tom needs to have everything go in his favor; he needs to get most of the undecideds and Virgil's soft supporters, and a big African-American turnout (and, is the 5th really only 1% hispanic?).  



5th Demographics (uva08 - 10/8/2008 2:22:39 PM)
Here are the 5th Cong. Dist. demographics according to CQ Politics (based on the 2000 census): http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...

These numbers are encouraging.  The district is actually 24 percent black (not 17) and there has been a huge surge of voters in the Charlottesville area (10 percent increase).  We are likely down, but this one may be closer than what anyone expects.  Maybe this is why Virgil is running scared.



37% in Cumberland County n/t (Mark - 10/8/2008 2:50:57 PM)


hi mark! (Josh - 10/8/2008 2:52:38 PM)


Lacy Ward is looking for his photos (Mark - 10/8/2008 5:09:54 PM)
Do you have his address?


Perriello press release (Lowell - 10/8/2008 2:44:45 PM)
Perriello Surges in SurveyUSA Poll

October 8, 2008--Ivy, VA--A new poll shows that support is surging for Tom Perriello and waning for Rep. Virgil Goode one month away from the election. The poll by Survey USA, conducted for WDBJ7, shows that the race now stands at Goode 55% and Perriello at 42%, representing a net gain of more than 20 points for Perriello since this poll was last conducted in August. There was a 23% swing of independent voters in Perriello's favor.

"The reason we are gaining support is because Tom Perriello is offering real solutions on the economy, gas prices, and health care, when all we've seen from Congressman Goode is lies, false attacks, and ducking debates," said Jessica Barba, Perriello's communications director. "Rep. Goode has begun to air extremely negative and offensive ads that have drawn condemnation from the public and the media, with the Roanoke Times even calling for Goode to drop it. Congressman Goode is losing voters, and we are on the path to victory."

Rep. Goode's lead has been more than cut in half since Perriello began airing commercials, forcing Goode to respond with negative attack ads. Goode canceled a televised debate on NBC-29 and WSET on October 7, after his campaign manager had confirmed his participation. He is refusing to do televised debates. The Perriello television commercials focus on the campaign's commitment to serving local charities in the community as well as Perriello's refusal to accept corporate donations.



great news (Josh - 10/8/2008 2:52:06 PM)
Tom's turnout ops with Obama and Warner are going to drive numbers across the 5th.

I also like what I'm seeing in the 10th.

Can we pick up 2, 10, and 5?

Yes. We. Can!



If I'm doing the math right... (Science Virginian - 10/8/2008 2:56:21 PM)
...50,000 new voters is 10% of the voting-age population of the entire district, based on the 2000 census. It's also 40% of Goode's vote total in the 2006 election.


Turnout efforts in Charlottesville need to be huge (snolan - 10/8/2008 11:11:22 PM)
Every registered voter needs to be getting out to the polls.