Electoral College Update - October 4, 2008 - Obama 273; McCain 200; 65 toss-ups

By: Dan
Published On: 10/4/2008 3:24:27 PM

One month ago, I examined the Electoral College numbers breakdown and I concluded that Obama had 264 electoral votes in his column and McCain had 227, with 47 electoral votes left in a toss-up.  Since then, the economic collapse and the meltdown of the Palin bump, along with a number of other things, have made this race swing much further towards Obama.  Now it appears that Obama has 273 electoral votes in his column (enough to win), and McCain has only 200 electoral votes in his column.  65 electoral votes are left in the toss-up column.  Of course the race could change and Obama still has work to do.  

Whatever the polls show, Virginia is still a toss-up.  Because Obama is doing so well nationally, a win in Virginia would almost certainly clinch victory.  That means it is time to push harder than we ever have.  A Democrat hasn't won Virginia since 1964.  

By now it is obvious Obama puts more states in play than did John Kerry.  This is great news for him and bad news for McCain.  

Below the flip is my early October Update.  
I am ranking based on safe, likely, leaning, and toss-up.  This follows the Cook Political Report rankings system and helps reduce the number of pure toss-ups:

Obama vs. McCain
For Obama, safe states are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington State, and Washington DC.  
14 States + DC (190 electoral votes)

States likely for Obama are: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico
4 States (39 electoral votes)

States leaning for Obama are: Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
4 States (44 electoral votes)

For McCain, safe states are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  
19 States (145 electoral votes)

States likely for McCain are: Georgia and Montana
2 States (18 electoral votes)

States leaning for McCain are: Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina
3 States (37 electoral votes)

Toss-up States are: Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia
4 States (65 electoral votes)


Obama: 229 with likely states.
Obama: 273 with likely and leaning states.
McCain: 163 with likely states.
McCain: 200 with likely and leaning states.
Toss-ups left: 65 electoral votes.

So what does this mean?

Well, it means that if Obama wins all the states currently leaning his way and McCain wins the rest, Obama will still win the election.  It is John McCain who has to make up serious ground.  However, the states leaning Obama's way still remain tenuous.  He still has to win states that have been traditionally conservative-leaning like Colorado and New Mexico.  Still, if he wins one of the four toss-up states; Florida, Nevada, Ohio, or Virginia, the White House is almost certainly his.  Bush won all four of these states in 2004.  McCain thought he'd put at least one "blue" state in the toss-up column, but instead he'll have to fight from behind in states like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  This is bad news for him.  

In the last month, Obama needs to continue his strong performance in the Midwest and the Western U.S.  McCain is holding strong in traditional Republican states in the Deep South where his leads in the polls have dropped slightly, but probably not enough for Obama to make up much ground.  McCain is also holding onto the Great Plains.

Obama remains strong in the northeast.  Pennsylvania is always close, but indications show that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will tilt the race to Obama, like they did for Gore and Kerry.  New Hampshire remains close, although it has been trending blue in the most recent elections for House, Senate, and President, and Obama has regained the lead he had lost after the GOP Convention.  Obama is also strong in the Pacific Northwest.  

Obama is doing well in the Intermountain West, where he has four potential pick-ups that Kerry lost (Colorado, Montana, Nevada and New Mexico).  However, Obama's bread and butter right now is in the Midwest, which includes Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  Polls show him strongly outperforming John Kerry in these states.  Kerry won only 4 of these states, while polls show Obama consistently ahead in 5 of them, and at least within one or two points in the other 3 of them!  

Key to Obama's success in the primaries, the Midwest is where Obama brings to the race a changing paradigm. Obama's home base of Illinois seems to help him in this region. Christian conservatives in the Midwest clearly tilted the race to Bush in Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio in 2004.  However, this year, McCain and Obama do not differ greatly in their religious credentials.  Perhaps McCain tapped Sarah Palin in order to court the Christian conservative vote, yet she doesn't appear to be making a difference in that regard.  Further, her hard-right stance against the rights to an abortion will probably hurt McCain's effort to win disaffected Hillary voters.  

The Bottom line is this:  Let's win Virginia for Obama!  

For updated polls state by state, see Electoral-Vote.com

Comments



The Deep South - clarification (Dan - 10/4/2008 3:31:36 PM)
When I talk about the "Deep South", I am not including Virginia or Florida.  North Carolina can be considered Deep South, and Obama is doing well, although he doesn't need to win North Carolina to win the election.  Indeed parts of Virginia are in what can be considered the "Deep South" as well as parts of Florida.  However, both states are incredibly diverse in their populations in a way that other Southern states are not.


Should I be thinking more positively? (tx2vadem - 10/4/2008 8:16:49 PM)
With economic numbers so poor, with the overwhelming majority of folks saying the country is headed in the wrong direction, I would think that would portend electoral disaster for the Republicans.  October is not over and I expect business spending to continue its decline, for the job market to continue to contract, and for consumers to continue to spend less.  Even with the bailout package, I don't see credit markets recovering until next year.  So people are going to be showing up to the polls with this dark cloud over their head.  And who do they trust more on economic issues?  So, should I or we be more optimistic?

Also, why do you consider North Carolina a lean and not a toss up like VA?  And why is Pennsylvania not in the likely column?  



Because... (Dan - 10/5/2008 12:43:20 AM)
Pennsylvania remains a question mark.  Like Ohio, PA went for Hillary in the end, keeping her in the primary race.  It was very close in 2004; much closer than exit polls indicated, which suggests something not so nice may have been going on, perhaps in urban Philly...wink wink.  Obviously I think Obama will win there, but with McCain out of Michigan, expect him to fight very hard to keep PA close.  

North Carolina, like Indiana, is still a conservative state.  Despite a few polls showing Obama tied, that isn't enough to say this traditionally Red State in Presidential races is a pure toss-up.  I think Obama is within two or three points, but not tied in North Carolina.  I expect McCain to win there unless there is a massive tide in Obama's favor.  If Obama wins North Carolina, he will probably win Florida and Ohio as well, and this race will be a landslide.