Early Voting in Ga., the Black Vote, and Va.

By: uva08
Published On: 10/2/2008 5:40:14 PM

     According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, about 40 percent of Georgia early voters are black (http://www.ajc.com/news/content/metro/stories/2008/10/02/black_early_voting.html).  Even if this doesn't hold through election day and the actual percentage drops to 30 percent, that would still mean that the black voting population will be 20 percent higher than 2004 (5/25).  If the black vote increases by 20 percent in Virginia then based on CNN's 2004 estimates, that will bring the total up to 25.2 percent.

    What does that mean in the grand scheme of things in Va.?

    If the electorate is 25.2 percent black and Obama wins 95 percent of that demographic that will give Obama 23.94 percent of the vote right away.  This would mean that Obama would only need about 34.84 percent of the remaining vote to get to 50 percent.  

    In 2004, John Kerry only carried 32 percent of the white vote.  Let's be conservative with our estimates say that of the remaining 74.8 percent of the electorate about 4 percent is other and Obama splits that group with McCain.  That brings Obama's running tally up to 25.94 percent of the vote.  To win, Obama would need about 33.05 percent of the remaining white vote.

    I think this is very doable.  The shift among white moderates and Independents in the suburbs, increase in the youth vote, and the residents of NOVA should be more than enough to ensure that Obama maintains, but likely exceed, the level of support Kerry received among white voters.

With McCain announcing that he is putting more resources into Virginia, this is just a reminder that the state is definitely winnable for Obama and that perhaps those polls showing Obama up 3-9 points are not at all inconceivable.


Comments