CNN poll: Obama up 9 points in Virginia

By: Rob
Published On: 10/1/2008 9:35:41 PM

Too good to be true?

In Virginia, which hasn't voted for the Democrats in a presidential contest since 1964, the new poll suggests Obama has a 9-point lead, 53-44 percent.

The last CNN survey in Virginia, taken in mid-September, had McCain up by 4 points. But it's a slightly different story in American Research Group's new survey in Virginia, which indicates McCain has a 3-point lead.

That's a 13 point swing in the CNN poll.  It's a great showing for Obama, who is leading for the first time in the Pollster.com composite.  But I have a feeling that Virginia is tighter than that.  If not, expect McCain to get even nastier than he's already been.

Comments



Lets be careful (cdgoin - 10/1/2008 10:51:24 PM)
Let's be careful

First off there is the Ford election in TN in 06... racisim is unfortunately hard to justify in a poll.

It's also always hard to justify huge jumps in the polls....

That said, I am very optimistic that with a lot of hard work we can win this state for Obama.

Charles



Let's just work our butts off.... (Lowell - 10/1/2008 10:57:41 PM)
...and let the rest take care of itself.


Lets not forget.. (cdgoin - 10/1/2008 10:58:02 PM)
If 85% of Jim Webb voters come out and vote Obama, 25% of George Allen voters vote Obama and 75% of new voters go Obama then simply Obama wins.. Its a matter of statistics.

Charles



no way 25% (phillip123 - 10/1/2008 11:10:03 PM)
of George Allen voters vote for Obama


Actually (Ron1 - 10/2/2008 12:51:50 AM)
the late polling in Tennessee overstated Bob Corker's support by approx. 3 points.

Here is the Real Clear Politics summary of the polling in the race; RCP had the race Corker + 6.0% in the final rounds of polling.

The final margin was 50.7 to 48.0% (see here).

In the South, polling usually understates African American support, so the 'Bradley' or 'Wilder' effect probably does not exist anymore in southern states.

Anyway, that's one data point. I do agree that we should take nothing for granted, but I am ecstatic seeing these new polling spreads coming out. It would be nice to not have a nail-biter for once on the first Tuesday in November!



Month to go..expect more to come (hereinva - 10/2/2008 9:25:51 AM)
Await the GOP direct mail "carpet bombing" especially in "red" regions. Haven't noted any in the Fredericksburg area yet, the nasty viral emails foreshadow the mail box drops. The only way GOP can "up" their points is: attack, attack, attack.  

Stay vigilant (eyes & ears open), more door to door canvassing, phone banks, rapid replies etc. Its crunch time.