Why Virginia is Obama's Firewall

By: jamesemcb
Published On: 9/29/2008 11:34:56 AM

Why Virginia is Obama's Firewall

I thought it might be interesting to review the poll situation to see where we are exactly and how huge Virginia is becoming in this race.

As you may know, Obama needs to add 18 more Electoral Votes than Kerry to get to a majority of 270 or could win by netting 17 Electoral Votes via "constitutional crisis" with 269 (a tie goes to the Democratically-controlled House of Representatives).  

The hardening Electoral Map is starting to reveal how just a few votes in the Commonwealth might make a real difference in the outcome (and perception of the outcome) based on the following RealClearPolitics.com Poll Average analysis:

Obama Leaning/Strong States (+5 points):  228
- includes 2004 Red States (CO-9, IA-7 & NM-5) = +21 Electoral Votes

McCain Leaning/Strong States (+5 points):  163
- includes no 2004 Blue States

Obama Toss Up States (-5 points):  73
- includes 2004 Blue States (PA, MN, WI & NH) = 45 Electoral Votes
- includes 2004 Red States (NC-15 & VA-13) = 28 Electoral Votes

McCain Toss Up States (-5 points):  74
- includes 2004 Red States (FL-27, OH-20, IN-11, MO-11 & NV-5) = 74 Electoral Votes

Totals:  Obama 301-McCain 237
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

So, what does this all mean?  Well, the current scenario has Obama barely leading in 4 states that Kerry won in 2004 plus Bush's Virginia and North Carolina with a predicted 301 Electoral Votes.  But North Carolina (15 EV) has polled consistently for McCain until just recently, so that option is pretty precarious.  That leaves Virginia as the prime candidate to serve as Obama's Firewall... the utlimate "insurance policy" and "mandate-ensuring" state.

If Obama loses any of those tight Kerry states, Virginia is his most likely back up plan (plus NC if we lost PA-21) to avoid a loss (263 EVs w/o WI-10 or MN-10) or controversial tie (269 EVs w/o NH-4).  Even if he wins all of those states, if any of them becomes an Ohio or Florida we might go down the road to recount hell again, so Virginia can ensure that Obama wins by a clear mandate of more than one measly state.

Regardless of all the possible scenarios, the bottom line is that we're in bell-weather territory and if Obama wins in the Commonwealth, he will most likely be President.

So, let's start the Victory Party early by turning Virginia BLUE!
 


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