Why Obama's Post-Debate Bounce Will Be Bigger Than Predicted

By: TheGreenMiles
Published On: 9/29/2008 10:17:42 PM

Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver points out a basic fallacy of pundits' debate analysis. While the pundits weighted McCain and Obama's discussion of the economy and of, say, Russia about equally, voters care vastly more about the economy right now than they do any other topic.

But I'd push Nate's analysis one step further and say that the debate's subject order tilted the results even more in Obama's favor. Even the Wall Street Journal's editorial page agreed Obama dominated the economic portion -- the first part of the debate. If you believe the pundits, McCain did better as the debate went on into foreign policy topics. By that time, millions of Americans had tuned out.

Even though the debate's viewership was fairly steady for a 90 minute program, ABC/CBS/NBC ratings dropped nearly 11 percent from 9pm to 10pm. Doesn't sound like much, but with 52.4 million total viewers, that means 5.5 million fewer people were watching McCain's foreign policy recovery than saw Obama's economic domination. When you're watching analysis of future debates, remember that pundits and focus groups forced to watch every minute aren't necessarily an accurate reflection of the experience of the average American who had to shut off the TV and put the kids to bed.

Of course, as James Fallows points out, Obama didn't need to clean up on policy points -- he needed to show Americans they can trust him with the job, and that's exactly what he did. And now that Americans are slowly giving Obama a greater lead in the polls, will the media admit it?



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