Rasmussen: Obama Leads McCain 50%-45% in Virginia
By: Lowell
Published On: 9/26/2008 12:40:02 PM
Rasmussen sometimes has a Republican tilt, but not today!
Matching a trend seen in national polling, Barack Obama has pulled ahead of John McCain in Virginia over the past week as the Wall Street financial crunch has put economic concerns front and center.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Obama with 50% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. Last Sunday, McCain was up two points. The week before, the candidates were tied.
Also interesting, "Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a 46.1% chance of carrying the state again this fall." Let's work to lower that percentage by about...oh, 46.1 points! :)
Comments
Canvass. Canvass. And Canvass some more. (FMArouet21 - 9/26/2008 1:26:14 PM)
Yeah, I know that the most important thing is that Obama and his team maintain control of the narrative. A good debate performance in the first debate tonight should help immensely. A crisp performance by Joe Biden (hope that he practices and makes sure to engage brain before moving mouth) against a bumper sticker memorizing, talking point babbling, virtually incoherent Sarah Palin should help as well.
But Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Nevada may turn out to be the deciders this fall, so we are in a place where GOTV can actually be the difference-maker, just as it was with Jim Webb's campaign in 2006.
We just need to identify a handful of new or normally disinterested voters in each precinct.
We're going out tomorrow! (TurboAlto - 9/26/2008 2:23:09 PM)
Husband and I are going to go out tomorrow and knock on some doors. It is just too close in the Commonwealth for my comfort.
Obama in vastly different position than Kerry in 2004 (Dan - 9/26/2008 3:18:09 PM)
According to Electoral-Vote.com, pre-debates in 2004, Kerry was getting crushed, particularly in the electoral college.
Currently, Obama is up 286 to 252. That is with him losing by 2 points in Florida and Ohio and winning Virginia. If Obama wins either Florida or Ohio, it will be a landslide electoral college victory.
Can you think of the last time a Democrat had a lead like this in Virginia for a Presidential election poll? This is all about GOTV, since winning Virginia is in reach for Obama. Now it seems like winning the 2nd district is in reach for Glenn Nye. A large African-American voter turnout in the 2nd district for Obama could very likely push Nye over the hump as well.
democrats in virginia (bcat - 9/26/2008 5:32:03 PM)
Well, I don't know about polls, but LBJ beat Goldwater by seven points in Virginia, mainly by winning NoVA, Southwest, Richmond, and Tidewater. Just like Obama is likely to do. LBJ pulled 61% in Fairfax, 62% in Arlington, 66% in Alexandria, 63% in Norfolk--and I'd expect O to beat all those numbers. For what it's worth, Kerry never once beat GWB in a statewide poll, and at this point in 2004, Bush was up an average of five-six points.
History's funny.