Last night's overwhelming outpouring for Mark Herring brought a well deserved victory to a truly deserving candidate. However, many times last night, folks at the victory party commented to me that this election could serve as evidence of the tide turning away from Republican control. Others suggest it served as a plebicite on development in the outer suburbs. I've been muddling over these notions the past day. I realized that I am not ready to agree with either suggestion.Certainly, here in Northern Virginia, we've been much more sucessful than we've been for a long time in electing Democratic candidates. Nevertheless, when I think of what unfolded last night, I have to say it strikes me as more of a twist of very good campaign management, a superb Democratic candidate, lots of hard work and a bit of luck.
Conventional wisdom says that special elections ultimately are won by the party that can turn out the most voters.
Loudoun and Fairfax Democrats suceeded in conveying the link between Staton and Black, that fired up their voters enough to turn out to the polls. That's where the good campaign management came in. Dogged efforts to work the grassroots ensured turnout. I truly believe the hard efforts of volunteers really made a huge difference.
Meanwhile, moderate Republicans digressed, lacking a clear desire to elect a more polarizing candidate. Staton attempted to address this, mailing out literature portraying his stances as closely mirroring Herring's own policies. This was perhaps not a wise tactic, since it ended up confusing swing and moderate Republican voters, who chose to stay home. Therefore, Staton was only left with only the most conservative right wing Republican vote--a demographic that is weakening in Loudoun County.
Take-away: I suppose perhaps that it's easier today to battle against a politician who assumes more rancorous positions. We will need find more ways to demonstrate right-wing extremism (without resorting to ridicule, which demeans our own case). We have a lot of work ahead of us.
I don't think it has any more value to winning other races. I don't think we as Democrats can quite reconsider what we are yet--this election may have been a fluke (however, I certainly don't hope so).
Nevertheless, there was one good point that we can all take some cheer from: Democrats can show up in lousy weather and win with low turnout.