ABC/Wash. Post: Warner Up 61%-29% Over Gilmore; Obama Up 51%-43% Over McCain

By: Lowell
Published On: 9/22/2008 5:48:47 PM

Wow, I knew it was bad for Jim Gilmore but not this bad!  Among registered voters, it's Warner 61%-Gilmore 29% (Gail Parker gets 2% and William Redpath gets 1%).

Also, as I noted in an update to the diary on the SurveyUSA poll results for Obama vs. McCain, the Washington Post-ABC News poll has Obama over McCain 51%-43% among registered voters including Barr (2%) and Nader (2%). It's 50%-44% Obama among registered voters not including Barr and Nader in the question (don't ask me why they wouldn't be included, since they're on the ballot), and 49%-46% Obama among "likely" voters (also without Nader or Barr in the poll, for whatever reason).  Including Barr and Nader in there makes it 50%-45% Obama among registered voters, roughly in sync with the SurveyUSA results from earlier today.


Comments



Where Virginia is concerned (Jim White - 9/22/2008 5:52:45 PM)
Gilmore is a snowball in hell.


Am I reading the poll wrong? (uva08 - 9/22/2008 5:58:16 PM)
Doesn't it say Obama is up by eight when you include Nader, Barr, et al among registered voters (51O-43M)?


Yes, I corrected the diary a few minutes ago (Lowell - 9/22/2008 5:59:19 PM)
Click "refresh" and see if that matches up. I was a little bit confused at first because the Washington Post is reporting so many different combinations...


Got it! (uva08 - 9/22/2008 6:02:37 PM)
I guess this means I have to send a few more bucks to Obama today.  It would probably be a good idea to send some Tom Perriello's way as well.


Gail Parker? (HisRoc - 9/22/2008 6:01:27 PM)
Who are the whack jobs who keep voting for Gail Parker?  Third-party candidacies are fine, as long as the candidate has some qualifications that approach the demands of the office.  Gail Parker isn't qualified to be the mayor of Wasilla, AK, much less a US Senator.
:)


Sarah Palin's not qualified to be mayor (Lowell - 9/22/2008 6:07:39 PM)
of Wasilla either. :)


Au Contraire, Mon Ami (HisRoc - 9/22/2008 6:18:35 PM)
Sarah Quaylin can field dress a moose and hire lobbyists to get Federal earmarks to build a sewer system and other infrastructure that us chumps here in Fairfax County pay for with our local tax dollars.  That's how she got elected Governor of the biggest Federal welfare state in the republic.


And both a road AND a bridge (Lowell - 9/22/2008 6:48:03 PM)
to nowhere, with federal taxpayers footing the bill despite the fact that Alaska is ROLLING in oil money!  What a reformer. :)


Gail Parker.... (Flipper - 9/22/2008 6:54:52 PM)
actually serves a purpose.  For those Republicans and Independents who vote Republican, but can't stomach voting for Gilmore or Warner, some will vote for her, swelling Warner's margin.


True, But... (HisRoc - 9/22/2008 8:54:08 PM)
In 06 she took over 26,000 votes, the vast majority of which would have been Webb votes.  She damned near re-elected Macca Allen while pushing her single-issue campaign of rail mass transit.  And people were mad at Nader in 2000...well at least Mark Warner has the margins this year to not be affected by the fringe candidates.  


Because America needs more trains (tx2vadem - 9/22/2008 10:19:27 PM)
lots more trains.  And tons of train tracks to put all those trains on.  Did you know we are neglecting our nation's rail infrastructure?  And we use most of it to carry coal?  Oh the humanity!  Will someone please think of our rail networks!  ;)


Obama and McCain are virtually tied here (DanG - 9/22/2008 6:57:17 PM)
Obama needs to spend some money and time in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, though.  NH is practically tied.  Obama really needs to hold onto those if he wants to win this thing.  As much as I want Virginia blue, it looks more and more like New Mexico and Iowa are secure, and I'd put money on Colorado going blue.  Keeping PA and NH in the blue corner wins it all.


This is great, but (aznew - 9/22/2008 7:13:37 PM)
how do we put some coattails on these guys.

Warner was asked about this i interview last week. Here is the exchange:

The Hook: If you look at any poll right now, you're leading this race by a big margin right now. Yet, Sen. Barack Obama (D) is neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain (R) for Virginia's electoral votes, and Rep. Goode is beating Mr. Perriello by a little more than a two-to-one margin in the Fifth District congressional race. Why haven't you been able to sell a large portion of your supporters on the rest of the Democratic ticket?
Mark Warner: Yeah, and when did I stop beating my wife? (laughs) I think that Sen. Obama is making great progress, and Tom Perriello is running a strong campaign against a tough incumbent. Part of it is that people need to get more familiar with them. I remember when I ran for governor and I went to Southside, people wondered if I was ever going to come back again. Well, while you can't come back as frequently when you're running for president, Senator Obama has been to Bristol, and Martinsville, and Lebanon. And in the last 10 days, I think you're starting to see things turn back a little. Everywhere I go, I try to make the case for both of them. As for Tom Perriello, it's always challenging to take on an incumbent, and in the congressional race, I think people just haven't focused on it yet. I feel pretty happy with the response we've gotten.

So, Warner had it nailed with respect to Obama, and maybe he's got it right with respect to Perriello, but he seems a little bit too sanguine for me when it comes to VA-05.

Governor (soon to be Senator) Warner -- There are definitely some races in the state where you can make a difference. Perriello's is one. Nye's is another.

These are tough races, but it will really send a message to defeat Goode and Drake.



Goode beating Perriello 2 to 1? (uva08 - 9/22/2008 7:33:52 PM)
What poll are they basing that on?  


Probably the SUSA Poll from several weeks back n/t (aznew - 9/22/2008 7:54:08 PM)


Aznew...... (Flipper - 9/22/2008 7:34:46 PM)
did you really expect more from Warner?

It would be interesting to know what the Joint Campaign is up to in the 5th.  Are they really running a "joint" campaign?  Is there joint lit?



Well, I hoped there would be more direct help (aznew - 9/22/2008 8:04:31 PM)
It's not my place to critique Warner, and at the end of the day, every candidate is responsible for his or own race. Tom Perriello will win or lose his race, not Mark Warner.

I'm only asking what else he can do, given his huge popularity and charisma, for our candidates facing tough, but winnable, races. Perhaps the answer is nothing. Perhaps the answer is Warner simply running the best campaign that he can for himself and draw folks to the polls, in the expectation that they will continue to vote Democratic down ticket.



No question (Kindler - 9/22/2008 9:22:19 PM)
A candidate up by two-thirds needs to lend his popularity to the others in the race -- including that guy at the very top of the ticket.


In canvassing for Obama (Teddy - 9/22/2008 9:51:22 PM)
I sometimes found a strong vote for Warner, and "undecided" on Barack. Not sure if that was a cover-up for the "Wilder effect" or not, but when I'd point out that Warner had endorsed Obama and wanted to serve in the Senate under an Obama presidency, the voter often would get a thoughtful look, like a light dawning. So it will definitely help Obama here in Virginia if he appears with Obama jointly, IMHO.


Do ya think... (Kindler - 9/22/2008 9:20:36 PM)
...that the 29% who support Gilmore might just be the same 29% of the population who still Bush is doing an absolutely marvelous job?  


My guess is that there's a wee bit (Lowell - 9/22/2008 9:25:01 PM)
of overlap there.  Like 99.99999% of "wee." :)


Nah (HisRoc - 9/22/2008 9:34:54 PM)
The 29% are the in-bred trailer trash who still cling to their guns and religion...

Oops!  Sorry.

:)



It really is stunning (aznew - 9/22/2008 9:46:58 PM)
That Gilmore seems to have attracted virtually zero persuadable votes. By that I mean if his support truly is 30%, it represents the dead-enders, people who would vote for him even if he were caught in bed with the proverbial live boy scout or dead woman.


Have you guys been getting (Tiderion - 9/23/2008 1:26:46 PM)
those phone calls from the national obama campaign about pledging to donate more? I get one daily and I finally answered and spoke with the guy. I had to say "You know, I appreciate what you're doing but I donated all I can." It's just getting a little annoying because I don't have income so I can no longer spare anything. I realize they need to keep fundraising to keep the steam going but seriously dont call the student for their money. No college kids have money, we're all broke.


DNC calls me (Pain - 9/23/2008 1:32:52 PM)

I just tell them I donate on line and volunteer at my local office, but keep up the good work.