Obama will get the lion's share of the minority vote. What he needs to address is the response some (would-be-sympathetic voters) have to voting for a black man.
Yesterday I spoke with a life long southerner; a hard working tractor mechanic. He IS voting for Obama, but said several of his co-workers won't. Their hurdle is his race-at least in part. Some are less than gentle- "I am not voting for a n----r."
Overt bigotry like this is dying in the Old Dominion. But something else lingers. Even in those who profess no blatant bigotry, the specter of race may still hold a subtle sway. One may not even realize that Senator Obama's race affects their choice when they decide to favor McCain. In others, there is the feeling that they themselves have been the victims of a sort of reverse discrimination, which sprouts from "minority favoritism"-overt, subtle, or maybe erroneously perceived. It may have occurred in the work-place, in college admissions, government contract-bidding, or elsewhere, but the results are real: latent mistrust, bitterness, &/or suspicion. To date this issue has been largely unaddressed. Most people won't touch it, for fear of being branded.
Some may read this and criticize. Some may disbelieve. Some may try to explain away the importance of this issue, but I can assure you the issue is real. I would predict that it will influence millions of voters this year. To these voters, Obama, the black man, may be a bit suspect, or at least unfamiliar/different. Overcoming those perceptions: That is the summit that must be conquered.
Obama must address this. He must speak directly to these voters. He must show them he is not worthy of their fears and suspicions. He must show them he is like them. He has their best interest at heart. He must try to win them over. If he can make them look past his race, if they will close their eyes and listen to his words, he will win them.
No one else will touch this issue. For some it is the gorilla in the room. Obama can. He is uniquely situated to dig deep and put salve on their fears. Indeed he is uniquely positioned to spark real open dialogue, and bring about true healing. It is long past due.
If he is successful, his coalition will be formidable, and come November, he would win the presidency by a land-slide.