Keep Texas in your mind this weekend

By: floodguy
Published On: 9/12/2008 6:10:44 PM

The worse case scenario for Texas occurs if Hurricane Ike crosses the coastline below Galveston Bay to the south and north of Freeport.  

Tonight, the infrared loop of Hurricane Ike will provide the best view of the storm as it makes landfall.

The National Hurricane Center predicts the track over southern Galveston Island.  This track will send Ike's highest tidal surge into Galveston Bay.  This could cause serious flooding not just to the coastal barrier island communities of Gavleston and Bolivar, but into the coastal communities of Galveston Bay, such as Texas City, Clear Lake, LaPorte, and Bay City.  

Combined with Ike's storm surge, the persistent daylong northeasterly windflow has been raising the sea levels with each high tide cycle, as most of the affects from the high tide, does not depart back out into the Gulf with low tide.  Tide monitoring stations are already displaying +7.42' feet above normal predicted sea levels at the time of this posting.

Tide monitoring station @ Galveston Bay Entrance Jetty Click

Tide monitoring station in the Houston Ship Channel at the mouth of Buffalo Bayou

This affect combined with the typical storm surge of a cat 2 (6 to 8'feet) or cat 3 storm  (9-12'feet), may bring storm surge levels affecting the tidal waters in and around Galveston Bay, of 20'feet or more.  This type of sea level rise is more typical of a weak cat 5 hurricane , according to the Saffer-Simpson scale

But the flooding threat from Ike doesn't end with his tidal surge, significant inland flooding is a major concern.

UPDATE @ 6:55pm CST: Composite doppler shows the approach of the eye.  Closeup Houston metro doppler from Accuweather

UPDATE At 7:50pm CST: the sea level is now 9.06'feet above normal at the Galveston Bay Entrance Jetty.

UPDATE at 11:09am CST:The latest HPC rainfall estimate decreases to 12.9" inches.  Tidal gauge at Galveston Bay Entrance Jetty is out.  Tidal gauge at Sabine Pass @ Port Arthur shows a surge of +9.68'feet.  Tidal gauge on Galveston Island @ Pleasure Pier displays +9.87'feet surge @ 10:54pm CST.   Clear Creek gauge in Friendswood shows water level +5.0 feet above normal at 7.0'feet, record is 20.46'feet.

UPDATE @ 12.38am CST: Houston spared the worse case scenario.  The eastern edge of Ike's eye will cross far enough east over Bolivar Island, limiting the peak surge from entering Galveston Bay for the longest period.  The most significant tidal surge will cross the eastern half of Bolivar island pass Gilchrist & High Island to Port Arthur.  Sabine Pass has already exceeded its high watermark set back in 1954 by 1.59'feet, and just past midnight CST, the surge is now +11.01'feet @ 12.13'feet and still rising with the wind blowing ESE.  Record flooding in Port Arthur-Beaumont is occurring.  Check out the tidal gauge at Galveston City Pier 21.  When the eye crossed onshore, the immediate change of the tide demonstrates the wind direction change.
With the estimated rainfall totals exceeding 12 inches, the waterways in the city of Houston and in Harris County will not drain due to the tidal surge.  This could result in widespread inland flooding of entire neighborhoods and communities in the south, central and eastern parts of the Greater Houston area.

The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, has a large network of river gauges which to monitor the possibility of flooding tomorrow, Sunday and Monday.

The storm's overall precipitation totals can be monitored from the local NWS doppler radar.  

If the storm happens to track north of Galveston Bay, Houston for the most part, will not experience this possible devastating scenario, and the focus turns north towards to the smaller coastal city of Port Arthur on Sabine Lake.  At the time of this post, sea levels there have already risen +6.33'feet.

Tide monitoring gauge at Sabine Pass

Tide monitoring gauge in Port Arthur at Rainbow Bridge

Lake Charles, LA NWS Doppler rain totals for Port Arthur-Beaumont

AHPS Port Arthur-Beaumont river gauges

Just before the peak of the storm early Saturday morning, some of these links will go down due to equipment failure from the high wind or water.  I'll try to update those failures with the closest working replacement.  

The highest cause of death from hurricanes is due to flooding.  Combined with the widespread threat of tornados from this monster-sized cyclone, keep Texas in your thoughts and prayers tonight and over the weekend.

Comments



Great information (tx2vadem - 9/12/2008 7:20:08 PM)
I have been checking NOAA and the Houston Chronicle (normally I wouldn't waste my time) all day.  As my grandmother would tell me, it's time to let go and let God.  But I can't help myself, I am just worried sick.


Where is your g-mother located (floodguy - 9/12/2008 7:54:17 PM)
what town or subdivision in Houston?


Thanks for the thoughts (tx2vadem - 9/12/2008 11:23:01 PM)
The family is all over.  One is in West U.  Three are in near the Medical Center.  Three are in Cypress.  And three are in the Woodlands.  Everybody moved into the city of North of it.  So no one left in Clear Lake or Baytown.


That's good (floodguy - 9/13/2008 12:06:32 AM)
Their location that far upstream around the Bray's Bayou and Buffalo Bayou watersheds, should be able to handle the highest rainfall estimates even with the most extreme surge if that we to happen.  The eye will track just overhead to just to the west so they will experience the strongest wind-field of NE quad.  Appears the tornado threat is farther east, but could be a factor as the eye passes to the NW of those locations once well inland.  I hope the best for your family.


Satellite photos (Lowell - 9/12/2008 7:47:25 PM)




Thanks for all the good thoughts and prayers (Shawn - 9/12/2008 7:52:17 PM)
Having been born in Houston, and survived Hurricane Carla in 1961 (at the age of 6) ... I still remember hiding out under the kitchen table that had been moved into the hallway... the terrible noise the wind made... the crackle as tree limbs were broken  ... going out and looking at all the damage when the sun broke through ... and then being hurried back inside ... after the eye passed over ... back under the table ... water coming under the door and ruining the living room carpet ... seeing the garage with about 6 inches of standing water ... I'm glad my relatives did not chose to stay around and left Pearland and Houston for Dallas and other points well inland ... my own expectation is that... with a 20 foot surge ... at least part of I-45 between Houston and Galveston will be wiped out ...  
   


no doubt (floodguy - 9/12/2008 8:07:56 PM)
good move on your relatives' part.  Pearland has flood many times since Carla.


Here comes the eye (floodguy - 9/12/2008 7:53:30 PM)
forgot to include this link.  Houston NWS composite doppler.


less rainfall? (floodguy - 9/12/2008 8:00:20 PM)
it appears the dry air intrusion from northerly shear didn't quite abate (or abate as earlier) as the NHC had expected in their previous discussions.  The doppler reflectivity of the core looks a bit thin.  This will brighten as the eye moves closer to the radar, but there does appear to be some dry slots.  Rainfall totals might be lower because of this, but may very well been calculated in their forecast.  Earlier yesterday, the rainfall forecast was close to 15.8" inches.  


As We Speak... (Flipper - 9/13/2008 6:59:53 AM)
the eye is north and east of Houston, apparently sparing Houston the worst.  Winds are 115, gusting to 135 mph.  Tornados have touched down in Highland, Texas and huge portions of the TX/LA border, east of the eye, are under tornado watches.    

Levies and being breached across southern Louisiana.  Reports are suggesting that people are trapped in their attics or are on their roofs in Beaumont, Texas.  The eye apparently hit the coast just east of Galveston so the storm surge to the east is the heaviest.

Local officials, as well as the National Weather Service did a good job of warning people to get out along the coast.  The weather service even issued a statment indicating "you face certain death" if you remain in single story or two story single family homes.  But 40% of the population decided to remain behind on Galviston Island, which is about 25,000 people.  Local officials have told these people they are on their own until the storm passes.

It is actually mind boggeling to think so many people stayed behind on Galveston Island in spite of the warnings of the potential for such a huge storm surge.  And these very people who stayed behind will be ranting and raving as to why they were not rescued.  But to think that rescuers should have to put their lives at risk because these people decided to risk their own lives is just plain wrong.

This storm is so huge - at one point it occupied 85% of the Gulf of Mexico.

Once the storm exits the state of Texas, is is expected to merge with a cold front and hit areas in Missouri and Arkansas that have already been hit recently with 7 to 9 inches of rain so the potential for flooding in those areas is a concern.

What a mess.          



indeed, worse scenario avoided by some 10 miles (floodguy - 9/13/2008 9:42:12 AM)
Sabine Pass is at the mouth of Sabine Bay where Port Arthur and Beaumont are located.  There, the tidal surged to 14.24' feet, or about +13.75' above predicted tide.  

Here's the historic high-water records for this gauge:

Historical Crests
(1) 10.40 ft on 06/27/1957 Hurricane Audrey
(2) 9.80 ft on 09/24/2005 Hurricane Rita
(3) 8.70 ft on 09/11/1961 Hurricane Carla
(4) 6.40 ft on 06/26/1986 Hurricane Bonnie
(5) 5.90 ft on 09/11/1982 TS Chris

Here are the impacts listed for this gauge:

Flood Impacts  
9.8 CATASTROPIC COASTAL AND INLAND FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES.

6.4 EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING IN BRIDGE CITY.

4.9 EVERY ROAD IN SABINE PASS UNDER WATER...EXCEPT HIGHWAY 87 RIGHT IN FRONT OF THE SCHOOL. HIGHWAY 87 FLOODED SOUTH OF PORT ARTHUR TO SABINE PASS...AND NORTH OF PORT ARTHUR TO BRIDGE CITY. MANY LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND ACROSS WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY FLOOD.

4.1 ABOUT SIX INCHES OF WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN SABINE PASS AND PORT ARTHUR...AND ALONG SEVERAL STREETS IN SABINE PASS.

3.7 SIDE ROADS OF HIGHWAYS 82 AND 87 NEAR SABINE PASS AND PORT ARTHUR HAVE MINOR FLOODING.

3.5 PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND SABINE PASS FLOOD FROM TIDAL SURGE. A FEW ROADS IN SABINE AND SABINE PASS WILL HAVE BACKWATER FLOODING FROM THE SABINE RIVER.

3.0 SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN PORT ARTHUR AND SABINE PASS WILL HAVE WATER APPROACHING THE ROAD.

On the Neche River which feeds the bay and splits the two cities, here are the flood impacts.   The gauge appears to out of service since yesterday.  Reservoir release upriver earlier in the day or the previous by the Army Corp, are the reason for the predicted flood levels displayed.  

Flood Impacts  
13.0 RIVER IS NEAR FLOOD OF RECORD WHICH OCCURRED OCTOBER 1994. WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. NUMEROUS HOMES IN NORTHEAST BEAUMONT AND ROSE CITY ARE FLOODED.

11.5 MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR THOSE REACHED DURING TROPICAL STORM ALLISON IN 1989. SEVERAL STREETS IN NORTHEAST BEAUMONT ARE FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE AND WATER IS IN HOMES NEAR THE RIVER. NEIGHBORHOODS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF INTERSTATE 10 IN ROSE CITY ARE FLOODED WITH WATER IN APPROXIMATELY 4 HOMES.

11.0 MAJOR FLOODING OCCURS AT COLLIERS FERRY PARK AND AROUND THE BEAUMONT COUNTRY CLUB. RESIDENTIAL ROADS OFF OF PINE STREET ARE IMPASSABLE AND WATER UP TO HOMES. SEVERAL STREETS IN NORTHEAST BEAUMONT ALSO BECOME FLOODED.

10.0 MAJOR FLOODING AROUND THE BEAUMONT COUNTRY CLUB, COLLIERS FERRY PARK AND PINE STREET CAN BE EXPECTED.

7.5 MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING. RIVER LEVELS ARE NEAR THOSE REACHED DURING TROPICAL STORM ALLISON IN JUNE 2001. FLOODING OF COLLIERS FERRY PARK AND SECONDARY ROADS NEAR THE RIVER CAN BE EXPECTED.

7.0 MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING. COLLIERS FERRY PARK IS UNDER WATER, AND FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS NEAR THE RIVER CAN BE EXPECTED.

4.0 MINOR FLOODING OF BEAUMONT COUNTRY CLUB AND COLLIERS FERRY PARK CAN BE EXPECTED.

Do not know the extend of the evacuated residents of Port Arthur-Beaumont, since the was so much focus on Houston and Galveston.  With the surge @ Sabine Pass exceeding the record by 3.84'feet, as Flipper noted, reports suggesting a very sad situation for those two cities, indicated an unfortunate, but guaranteed certainty.  Keep this people in your thoughts and prayers please.  



minor flooding in Port Arthur-Beaumont (floodguy - 9/13/2008 10:19:19 AM)
major flooding in smaller outlying communites outside of levee district.  Port Arthur levee was not breeched!  

http://www.beaumontenterprise....



So, you are generally in the know (tx2vadem - 9/14/2008 6:37:01 PM)
Is Dominion sending anyone down to Houston to help with restoring power?  Centerpoint is doing its best.  But with nearly the entire city of Houston and the areas between Houston and Lake Charles, LA without power, it is certainly a massive job even for Centerpoint.  I was reading in the Chronicle that officials estimate it will take over a month to restore power to everyone in the region.  I also read that Maryland and other states were sending down people to help clear debris.  And I briefly heard that Kaine was doing something too.  But I don't know what all the details are.


i heard that 4 week no power... (floodguy - 9/14/2008 9:45:26 PM)
but the utilities always do that with every catastrophe.  I would bet 1/2 the time.  its never as bad as their first assessment.  As for Dominion, they are probably just finishing up Hanna repairs.