New poll from CNN has McCain up, 50 percent to 46 percent. This is just barely outside the 3.5 point margin of error.
Virginia hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson took the state 44 years ago. But Obama is working hard to try and turn the red state blue: He's made numerous campaign stops there, including events Tuesday and Wednesday this week."The geographic patterns in Virginia are pretty much the same as in 2004, with one exception: In the area around Norfolk, Hampton Roads and Virginia Beach - a region John Kerry lost by four points - Obama appears to have a 13-point advantage. That's surprising for an area with several naval bases, and the headquarters of Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting Network. "Obama's getting about the same support in Northern Virginia that Kerry did four years ago," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But that wasn't enough to turn that state blue in 2004, and it's not enough in 2008. Obama needs to do better in Northern Virginia if he hopes to carry the state."
Wow, up 13 points in Tidewater? I'm sure the Obama campaign would be happy to hear that. And claiming a NOVA level of support that matches 2004 is "not enough" based on the 2004 results is sort of ignoring the +13 in Tidewater, isn't it? Regardless, I'd be surprised if Obama didn't see NOVA come in more heavily for him after we get farther away from the convention and closer to the ground game rollout.
Eric of TPM notes the good news about this and other state polls CNN released today:
Overall, Dems can be cautiously optimistic about these numbers. McCain has been riding a post-convention bounce, but has only narrow leads in just two of the four state. And the numbers aren't wildly different from the pre-convention surveys from other firms, suggesting that the bounce may not have affected these particular areas all that much.
Right -- if +4 (and barely outside the MOE) is McCain's high water mark in Virginia, I'm sure the Obama campaign is pleased as punch about their position right now.
...in all seriousness, I'm not sure I'd believe this poll's geographic breakdown. I do believe Obama's going to carry the parts of Hampton Roads CNN mentioned because of huge support in the parts of Norfolk that are included in VA03, and he'll do pretty well in many parts of VA02 as well. And we've made a lot of gains here since 2004 in terms of improving our organization. But I still have to doubt seriously that we're overperforming Northern Virginia like the write up seems to suggest.
In HR, we are playing to win and win big. The amount of activity here is truly unprecedented.
I, personally, am organizing my backside off.
Susan Mariner
Deputy Political Director -- Hampton Roads
Democratic Party of Virginia
Virginia is fully in play, and that is all I think we'll know until the votes come in. +/- 4 either way is a ballgame. We can win this baby if we put in the time and effort in every precinct.
Margin of error is applicable to EACH person in the poll. With a margin of 3.5%, it means either candidate's percentage could as much as 3.5% different in either direction. Margin of error does NOT apply to the difference in the two median polling numbers.
i.e. Obama could be anywhere from 42.5% to 49.5% (46% + or - 3.5%) McCain could then be as high as 53.5% or as low as 46.5%. The margin of error reflects the confidence the pollster has in EACH number, not in the difference between the two.
Don't believe me? I know it's wikipedia, but still...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...
"the margin of error as generally calculated is applicable to an individual percentage and not the difference between percentages, so the difference between two percentage estimates may not be statistically significant even when they differ by more than the reported margin of error."
:-)