Just saw Chuck Todd on cable analysing the race as of today.  He said that Virginia is one of 4 states too close to call.  The bottom line, we can either win or have 4 more years with bush 3.

I like the fact that Obama is closing in on 40 percent among white voters.  I strongly believe he will crack 90 percent among blacks.  If blacks are 20 percent of the electorate, whites are 75 percent, and the remaining 5 percent is Hispanic, Asian, or other then the most likely scenario for an Obama victory would be garnering about 40 percent of the white vote (running total of 30 percent of the vote), around 90 percent of the black vote (add 18 percent to get 48 percent) and just forty percent of the remaining "other" vote to put him over the 50 percent mark here in Virginia.  

Outside of NOVA, the college towns(Charlottesville-Albemarle, Williamsburg, Blackburg), and perhaps some moderate parts of Henrico, Obama is likely to do rather poorly among downstate whites.  I believe this is why it is crucial that we get all those newly registered voters out across the state.  

On a regional basis, I am thinking things will look something like the following. I believe the huge Obama margin in Richmond City should be enough to offset a likely huge McCain victory in Chesterfield and moderate victory in Henrico.  Northern Hampton Roads including Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, and Portsmouth should negate McCain's victory in VA Beach.  I personally think Cheaspeake will be a wash.  The margins in Charlottesville and Albemarle need to be enough to cut down McCain's margin of victory in the valley counties of Augusta and Rockingham which will be somewhat substantial.  If we can get UVa students, the younger population, and black community to turn-out here, there is not doubt in my mind that we can't deliver around a 15,000-20,000 vote margin here in Charlottesville-Albemarle.  Roanoke City will need to cut into the McCain margin in Roanoke County.  I think NOVA will have duty to deliver strong margins to cancel out what will likely be decent McCain margins elsewhere.  I think some of the Southside couties with their large black populations may be fairly split, but overall I think McCain does well there, including the Lynchburg area.  

Don't write off Virginia Beach.  We are working extremely hard on the Precinct level to deliver "The Beach" to Obama.

Flipping VA Beach would go a LONG way in helping our changes.  Even keeping it realatively close would be good for us.

80% turnout and 80% of that to Obama.  With around 140,000 registered voters, that should mean about a 70,000-vote margin for Obama in Arlington.

Fairfax County has about 660,000 registered voters.  With 75% turnout there, that would be around 500,000 votes. If Fairfax goes 57%-41% for Obama, that would be something like 285,000-215,000 for Obama, a 70,000-vote margin. Combined with Arlington, that's a 140,000-vote margin right there.  Add in another 40,000-vote margin or so in Alexandria (plus several thousand more from Fairfax City and Falls Church), and you're getting close to a 200,000-vote Obama cushion from the NOVA inner suburbs.  Will that be enough "to cancel out what will likely be decent McCain margins elsewhere," as you say?  Thoughts on this analysis?  Thanks.

Arlington and Falls Church will go overwhelmingly for Obama.  I know some Republicans in Fairfax and Alexandria, but they tend to be more secular and pragmatic.  The Palin selection left them cold and they aren't that enthusiastic for McCain.    I have the sense that they aren't going to break their necks getting to the polls.  Your analysis is dependent in part on successful registration of new voters, who for the most part will be minorities, and really good efforts to get people to the polls on the big day.

if it will be enough is to go by district registration totals and estimate what the vote share for each candidate is likely to be.  District by district the registration totals look like this: 1st:461,953; 2nd: 365,856; 3rd: 361,316; 4th: 436,245; 5th: 416,671; 6th: 404,610; 7th: 463,986; 8th: 418,742; 9th: 391,401; 10th: 480,977; 11th: 455,180.

Let's assume for a minute that turnout will be 75% all across the state.  We know in reality this will not be the case.  If anything this underestimates what Democratic preformance will be as turnout in places like NOVA will likely be higher than the counties in the 9th Cong. District.  This gives us 346,464 in the 1st, 274,392 in the 2nd, 270,987 in the 3rd, 327,184 in the 4th, 312,503 in the 5th, 303,458 in the 6th, 347,990 in the 7th, 314,057 in the 8th, 293551 in the 9th, 360,733 in the 10th, 341,383 in the 11th.  

With that out of the way we can now make some educated guesses about how things will break down district by district.  Let's be conservative with our preformance in the 1st and say McCain wins 59-41 or 204,414-142,050.  In the 2nd let's say that each side gets close to 50% and at most McCain wins by 15,000 votes.  Let's give Obama a 75-25 or 245,388-81,796 victory in the 3rd.  Say again that McCain and Obama are within 10 points of each other in the 4th district (minority turnout vs. conservative slant of the district) and the margin of victory is around 20,000 for McCain.  In the 5th, let's say things break 47-53 or 146,876-165,627 for McCain (decent turnout in Charlottesville-Albemarle, minorities in downstate vs. conservative slant of district.  Let's give McCain a 64-36 or 222,713-125,277 in the  6th (Valley).  We will give McCain a 63-37 or 219,233-128757 in the 7th.  Here comes the fun ones.  Let's say you all in NOVA can get us a 75-25 or 235,543-78,514 victory in the 8th.  Let's give McCain a 65-35 or 190,808-102,743 in the SWVA 9th.  We will say that the 10th is very close, but in the end Obama wins by 10,000 votes and he wins the 11th 57-43 or 194,588-146,795.

With all of those numbers you get about a 20,000 vote victory for McCain.  When you adjust for the fact that I was pretty generous with some of the margins that I gave John McCain (some of which were greater than Bush's performance),the fact that turnout will be heavier in NOVA, lighter in SWVA, and that the minority and young populations will likely come out in higher rates than in years past, you can see how Obama wins this state.  

Feel free to plug in your own percentages or double check my math :-)  

"'Central' (McCain leads 51%-45%)"

Henrico might surprise you. Kaine trounced Kilgore by a good 7,500 votes in 2005. (Was Kaine really that popular in Richmond? I didn't live here when he was mayor.) Which is to be expected, maybe, but Jim Webb only lost Henrico by a tantalizing 562. Heavy turnout in the eastern and northern parts of the county could easily tip Henrico into Obama's column.

As for Rockingham, don't forget that Harrisonburg is also a college town. There are 17,000 students at JMU, and Kaine won Harrisonburg by a comfortable margin in 2005. And again: Jim Webb lost by less than 100 votes.

Exceed the polling - about 20%.  There is a huge opportunity to close the gap and keep it close. And you know what that means.

No real bounce for either candidate is Advantage Obama, given his ground game.  I was concerned that the Pat Robertson crowd would've given McCain a Palin bounce.