September Electoral College Update - Obama on track to victory

By: Dan
Published On: 9/6/2008 2:53:43 PM

Two months ago, I examined the Electoral College numbers breakdown and I concluded that Obama had 273 electoral votes in his column and McCain had 232, with 33 electoral votes left in a toss-up.  Since then, the conventions have passed, with vice-presidential choices now on the ticket.  Polls from every state have come out multiple times and given us a sense of all the trends.  Obama has clearly held his ground and remained the frontrunner to victory.  Obama still has work to do. His numbers have dipped to 264 electoral votes.  McCain's numbers have also dipped to 227.  There are 47 electoral votes in the toss-up column, including Virginia's 13 electoral votes.  

Obama puts more states in play than did John Kerry.  This means John McCain has more places to defend than he anticipated.  However, the biggest downturn for Obama since my last report has been his polling in the Southeastern U.S.  Once thought to be a battleground region, states in the Deep South now appears to be trending all red.  

Below the flip is my September Update.  I am ranking based on safe, likely, leaning, and toss-up.  This follows the Cook Political Report rankings system and helps reduce the number of pure toss-ups:
Obama vs. McCain
For Obama, safe states are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington State, and Washington DC.  
13 States + DC (~35% of U.S. population, 183 electoral votes)

States likely for Obama are: Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin
5 States (~6% of U.S. population, 39 electoral votes)

States leaning for Obama are: Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.
3 States (~8% of U.S. population, 42 electoral votes)

For McCain, safe states are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  
17 States (~25% of U.S. population, 139 electoral votes)

States likely for McCain are: Georgia and South Dakota
2 States (~3% of U.S. population, 18 electoral votes)

States leaning for McCain are: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, and North Dakota
6 States (~14% of U.S. population, 70 electoral votes)

Toss-up States are: Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia
4 States (~9% of U.S. population, 47 electoral votes)


Obama: 222 with likely states.
Obama: 264 with likely and leaning states.
McCain: 157 with likely states.
McCain: 227 with likely and leaning states.
Toss-ups left: 47 electoral votes.

So what does this mean?

Well, it means that if Obama wins all the states currently leaning his way and McCain wins all the states currently leaning his way, Obama will have to win at least Colorado, Ohio, or Virginia.  If he wins Nevada, and loses Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia, the race is tied 269-269!  If the race is tied, the newly elected House of Representatives decides with each state delegation having one vote.  Since Democrats control the majority of state delegations and are likely to remain in that position after the November elections, Obama would probably become President.

However, let's not think about that nightmare scenario.  Obama has a good shot to win a majority of electoral votes.  2004 was a bad year for Democrats.  Despite Bush's waning popularity, his campaign and its tactics led to a crushing defeat for Kerry who only managed 252 electoral votes.  This year, Obama is expected to carry Iowa and New Mexico without much trouble, even though Kerry lost both states narrowly to Bush in 2004.  Gore won both those states in 2000 and lost New Hampshire.  Gore lost the election by five electoral votes.  If he'd won Florida, he'd have destroyed President Bush in the electoral vote count.

This year, Obama can win the election and still lose Florida and Ohio.  He needs to continue his strong performance in the Midwest and the Western U.S.

McCain is holding strong in traditional Republican states in the Deep South where his lead continues to grow.  McCain is also holding onto the Great Plains.  Strangely, Obama has been polling well in the "small town" dominated North Dakota and South Dakota.  However, it does not seem likely that Obama will win these traditionally conservative states, and he shouldn't count on them to bring him any electoral votes in November.

Bob Barr's entry into the race may have an effect in some parts of the country.  The two states where this effect has the best opportunity to flip the race one way or another are Georgia, his home state, and Nevada, which should be the home state of the Libertarian Party.  However, given the enormity of this race, and the fact that Barr will not be included in the debates, it will likely diminish his ability to make much of an impact anywhere.

Obama remains strong in the northeast.  Pennsylvania is always close, but indications show that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will tilt the race to Obama, like they did for Gore and Kerry.  New Hampshire remains close, although it has been trending blue in the most recent elections for House, Senate, and President.  Obama is also strong in the Pacific Northwest.  Oregon is the closest of these states, but remains likely Democratic.  

Obama is doing well in the Intermountain West, where he has four potential pick-ups that Kerry lost (Colorado, Montana, Nevada and New Mexico).  However, Obama's bread and butter right now is in the Midwest, which includes Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  Polls show him strongly outperforming John Kerry in these states.  Kerry won only 4 of these states, while polls show Obama consistently ahead in 5 of them, and competitive in all 8 of them!  

Key to Obama's success in the primaries, the Midwest is where Obama brings to the race a changing paradigm. Obama's home base of Illinois seems to help him in this region. Christian conservatives in the Midwest clearly tilted the race to Bush in Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio in 2004.  However, this year, McCain and Obama do not differ greatly in their religious credentials.  Perhaps McCain tapped Sarah Palin in order to court the Christian conservative vote, yet there is no indication that she'll make that much of a difference in that regard.  Further, her hard-right stance against the rights to an abortion will probably hurt McCain's effort to win disaffected Hillary voters.  

The Bottom line is this:  if you really want this race to be secure, make sure Obama is able to win Virginia!

For updated polls state by state, see Electoral-Vote.com

Comments



Virginia is looking to be more important than I thought it would be (aznew - 9/6/2008 4:49:42 PM)
which is pretty cool.

While I thought it would be a swing state, I didn't think it would loom as large as it is seeming to. I still think a scenario where Obama wins Virginia but loses Ohio is not very likely, but it is indeed possible.

Ohio is an absolute positive state for McCain. He loses that, the fat lady is singing. But Dan is correct that Obama can win without Ohio.

Thanks for the analysis, Dan.



Democrats usually have more states in play (Dan - 9/6/2008 8:22:22 PM)
Democrats used to win by picking off some of the southern states.  That is how Clinton won.  These days, Democrats need to win the West and Midwest.  This race will probably change the map a little bit for the Democrats.


If it is close, or (Teddy - 9/6/2008 7:16:53 PM)
heaven forbid, tied, watch out for another end run to the Supreme Court, bypassing the Constitutional role of the House of Representatives. Watch out for unreliable vote counts in Ohio and optical scan states. I am nervous that there will be violence in some form, because Republicans are not only determined to prevent a Democratic takeover, but on the high horse of God now Palin is part of the mix.  God, of course, condones anything in order to see his preference win... just as He approved Bush's  "election" and Alaska's pipeline.


Dielbold is sending out a "patch" (Rebecca - 9/6/2008 7:47:42 PM)
Premier Voting Machines (the new name for Diebold) just announced that they have found a problem with their software which causes votes to be dropped during transmission to the central tabulator. However, Maryland hasn't found any such problem with their machines.

Nevertheless Premier is sending out a "patch" to be installed on all their systems nation wide prior to the November election. The owners and financers of this company are rabidly Dominionist (That means they want a Christian fascist country). Please do some research on this if you think I am making it up. Check out the role of Ahmanson.

Just before the Georgia Senate race in 2002 the owner of Diebold (when it was still Diebold) flew in from Texas to install a patch. The patch was supposed to fix a clock problem. Max Cleland was polling five points ahead, but lost the election by several points, far outside any margin of error.

I quote from the blog "The Moderate Voice":

"A whistleblower provided the questionable Diebold patch to Stephen Spoonamore, a prominent cyber-security expert and registered Republican:

Individuals close to [Attorney Cliff] Arnebeck's office said Spoonamore confirmed that the patch included nothing to repair a clock problem. Instead, he identified two parallel programs, both having the full software code and even the same audio instructions for the deaf. Spoonamore said he could not understand the need for a second copy of the exact same program - and without access to the machine for which the patch was designed, he could not learn more. Instead, he said he took the evidence to the Cyber-Security Division of the Department of Justice and reported the series of events to authorities. The Justice Department has not yet acted on his report."

Read more here:

http://themoderatevoice.com/po...

Read much more here:

http://www.velvetrevolution.us/



It is unfortunate (Dan - 9/6/2008 8:26:01 PM)
However, the powerbrokers in this country may not be rushing to change the game for McCain.  I think the people in real power in the U.S. aren't stupid enough to think they can go on watching their country fall apart, while they profit.  Look at T. Boone Pickens.  The power brokers can change their view.  I think there will always be some issues with voter fraud, but not on a large scale.  At least I hope.


Depends (Rebecca - 9/6/2008 9:40:14 PM)
Depends on what you call big. If one state makes a difference like in 2000 and 2004 then all you may need is a few thousand votes, maybe just a few hundred. That's what happened in Ohio in 2004. All they have to do is target a few states which are "in play".

As a computer professional I am appauled that we can get a receipt for gas but not for our vote.



Very true (Dan - 9/6/2008 11:49:11 PM)
It is frightening to all of us.  It is unfortunate that there isn't a larger debate in the media about protecting our vote from fraud.  Cheers to you for bringing it up.


And if Obama wins (thegools - 10/4/2008 9:28:37 PM)
It will go straight back to the back burner again.

I would suggest everyone join Verified Voting dot Com, and Virginia Verified Voting.com.  These groups are active and stay on top of legislation that will help do away with the problems that electronic voting has.