3. It takes passion and powerful volunteer turnout to turn a candidate's advantages into election day victories.
Sara Palin is less likely to be VP than Harriet Miers is to ascend to the Supreme Court. The Palin nomination is DOA. Her nomination will go down as the singular event which destroyed the McCain candidacy. That's not the full story, but that's how it will be remembered. Here's why:
Virginia Democrats learned three powerful lessons from the Webb campaign in 2006:
1. No Republican is invulnerable against a Democratic candidate of character ready to fight for a powerful vision of America.
Jim Webb ran on character and issues: foreign policy, economic fairness, government accountability. He ran a forceful campaign against George Allen and defeated him.
2. Once pressured, Republicans buckle, and make forced errors which cause the overriding narratives of their public personae to unravel.
George Allen would never have exposed his dark side unless he had been pushed and pressured by the Webb camp for months before. "Macacca" exposed Allen's true feelings to the "Real World of Virginia". It cost him his Senate seat and it cost Republicans the Senate.
3. It takes passion and powerful volunteer turnout to turn a candidate's advantages into election day victories.
In addition to the campaign's efforts and Senator Webb's enduring character, it took a pumped up "rag-tag army" of volunteers to make Webb's nail-biter victory a reality.
Democrats are bringing the lessons of 2006 to bear on 2008 . Obama has forced the error and John McCain has provided his own "Macacca" moment: the nomination of Sara Palin for VP. Now it's time to get to work and win this thing. 
On Thursday, Barack Obama simultaneously united and invigorated the Democratic party with such force and power that it sent a shock deep into the McCain campaign. So effective was Obama's speech and so well-orchestrated the convention that it drove John McCain to make a critical error that will lose him the White House.
Terrified and desperate, the McCain campaign took a wild risk and nominated the un-vetted right-wing extremist, Sara Palin for the number two slot. In so doing, McCain fundamentally failed in his responsibilities as a major party candidate. John McCain has proven himself fundamentally incapable of making critical decisions.
This is not by accident. It is by ideology. Just as Bush is the fulfillment of conservatism's ideologically driven incompetence, so is McCain another Deadbeat conservative, short-changing America for political expediency.
John McCain did not vet his Vice Presidential pick, Sara Palin, and now the steady drip, drip, of Palin-related scandal has become a roaring river.
Palin was director of indicted Senator Ted Stevens' 527 - There goes that "reformer" brand.
Palin lied about being against the "bridge to nowhere", and she Hired a lobbyist to get $27 Million in earmarks for Alaska. There goes that "honest public servant" brand.
Woops! There goes that "America First Slogan", maybe "Alaska First", or "Caribou over Red White and Blue"? Kinda catchy that...
Sara Palin: Dominionist Stalking Horse. Yeah, these guys want to institute some crazed Christian Sharia, and put the world under a totalitarian regime until the rapture. It's not just crazy it's completely against scripture.
If you think the totalitarian thing is just hyperbole, consider that the only thing that stood between Palin and a good old fashioned book burning was a lone, principled librarian
She uses her power for vengeance against personal enemies. more.
She was almost recalled as mayor.
Sarah Sinking So Fast RNC Just Called Her "Sarah Pawlenty"
Palin's Church May Have Shaped Controversial World View
McCain Fought Teen Pregnancy Programs
Palin claims massive foreign policy credentials, that she doesn't have, because she basically has paid no attention to the most important foreign policy issue of our time, except to note that Iraq is a war for oil, oh and that we were sent there by God.
Can Sara Palin Give Blackwater's Mercenaries to Joel's Army?
(This is rather a stretch, but Palin is associated with Joel's Army, read this and try to remain calm.At this point, Sara's failed business, and her husband's DUI seems completely inconsequential, indeed, prosaic.
Her friends think she's just wrong for the job.
And finally with regard to news reports of Palin's 17 year-old-daughter's pregnancy and impending shotgun wedding to a guy who is "proud to be a "f******ing redneck" (high school hockey is awesome!), two questions arise. First, how could a woman be so ambitious that she would knowing of her daughter's condition, she would expose her to national and international scrutiny of this level. Second, could there be a greater irony than the fact that that this anti-Roe candidate has produced a truly magnificent example of a true pro-Choice poster child. Even though everyone in Alaska knew about it the McCain campaign didn't think to ask.
The media is asking whether Palin should leave the ticket and Intrade.com is taking bets.
There's more on the horizon...
Not only is the McCain Campaign stalling an investigation into whether Palin's used her power to get a public safety commissioner fired, it now turns out that Palin lied about traveling to Ireland.
The press is now asking whether Palin was vetted at all. It clearly seems she wasn't. All of this calls McCain's judgment into question, as it rightly should.
The truth is that this endless stream of Palin scandal is not the critical issue in this story. The critical issue is that John McCain has proven and reinforced every assertion and attack made by the Obama campaign. Just as Obama in Denver won the argument for the future of America, John McCain has lost the argument of who has the judgment to lead that future. When so much depends on leadership, you don't shoot dice with the future of America.
Now it's time for us to get to work and bring this thing home.
When McCain announced the pick, it was viewed as a high-risk. This in itself is an example of an epic failure of judgment, it completely disrespects the responsibilities of the presidency. Even Karl Rove agreed that the Palin pick was a political and not a governing decision. This was a simple play to achieve 2 political ends:
1. Rally the extreme constituencies that made up the Bush electorate. Palin as Bush in a Dress.
2. Recruit the fringes of disgruntled(rapidly dwindling) Hillary supporters before they all settle in and support Obama. Hillary + Ralf Reed = Palin.
In attempting to put lipstick on the pig of Republican betrayal of American principle of responsibility, McCain has yet again failed to live up to his responsibilities. This is a cynical, desperate choice, that puts McCain's ideology front and center.
To take a high risk with the critical constitutional responsibility is not leadership it is the same irresponsible failure that America has suffered these long 8 years.
With Palin's pick, John McCain's desperate, insulting, and demeaning campaign concedes that Obama has won the argument for the future of America, but they are determined to hold onto power. It will take a magnificent volunteer effort combined with the continued excellence of the Obama campaign itself to wrest power from these deadbeat Republicans and put a responsible leadership back in the White House.
Now, more than ever, McCain is more of the same. By picking Sara Palin, McCain has empowered the anti-Hillary. Hillary crusaded for critical issues like equal pay, universal health care, and reigning in the power of oil companies. Sara Palin is no Hillary Clinton. She is, in fact, pale in comparison to the greatness of HRC.
Obama has done his part. He has won the argument and continues to lead by example.
McCain has done his part. He has buckled to Limbaugh and produced a failure of epic proportions, so desperate to win that he has abandoned judgment, reason, and his moral compass.
Now it is time for us to do our part. It's time to work tirelessly to win this election and send Barack Obama to the White House.
That's utterly ridiculous, contrary to all polling (and other) evidence, just plain wrong. See here for the real "macaca" story.
The McCain campaign's spin doctors can't play the victim enough to convince America that he's putting America first. This is politics as usual from McCain. more of the same.
Meanwhile, Obama remains above the fray.
I will leave it to the experts to determine why. What I know is of the dozen or so folks I "know" voted Webb in 2006 are not voting Obama. I "know" a majority will support Warner as well. Theres a gap there that I have witness ed throughout the area here within different groups. Like a commented before, teachers like my wife are upset over the Palin attacks and the pereption of the anti-woman, stay at home, five kids rhetoric. I do not care who you are, Dem or Rep, that crap does not play well with any conservatives of either Party that are woman.
People can say its of no consequence and thats fair, but are not these Gallup polls like 2,800 people and we use it as a reflection of an entire population? Just saying.
My point has always simply been that these things do not help Obama in Virginia. Thats all. I say that because back during the Primary there was alot of enthusiam with folks I talked to and no can tell me that after that great speech at the Convention there should not be a helluva lot more than back during the Primary. I juts wonder if peoples psyches can take two great contests, first against Clinton and now the Republicans. Thats it.
I do not intend to speak for others; but when teachers are upset and say-and say is a big question I guess, they'll support a woman out of solidarity not "politics" and the very freinds and co-workers that voted for Webb are now saying they are not supporting Obama...."Houston We Have A Problem"
It may not in the context of RK be worth much other than a troll rating I guess, but I present them as "observations" nothing more.
It is simply inaccurate to attribute these comments to DKos. Diarists do not speak for the site.
And before you give me a long explanation about perceptions and how perceptions become truth whether they are accurate or not, I disagree. Truth does matter.
*Social extremist on a wide variety of issues
*Supporter/sympathizer with a SECECESSIONIST party!
*Believes in teaching CREATIONISM (!!!) in schools
*Supported the "bridge to nowhere" and hired a lobbyist to scarf up millions of taxpayer dollars for Wasilla.
*Left Wasilla in bad fiscal shape, racking up nearly $20 million in long-term debt
*And then there's this
*And this.
*And much, much more. What on earth was John McCain thinking? Has this guy completely lost it?
I could care less who it is, if you can't call it down right BS its a sad day here in Virginia for all of us. You are seeking to capitalize on falsehoods "targeted" at a family solely for political motivation.
How would you feel if someday someone got so peeved at you and sought you out and your family and basically said you know I have enough money to smear you and your family and send people to bloggers work or harass those that worked with you or for you in an attempt to bring about some politcial end? News is one thing but that crap is crap.
I hope that day never comes to any of you.
I can only speak to what I know and feel. I can only speak about things I am seeing here and maybe because it has tradtionally been a more conservative area it skews it about as much as it does for folks who live in Arlington.
Perception is reality.
BTW James Webb was getting crushed by Geroge Allen if any of you were canvassing like I was in the 7th Congressional District, a highly Republican area, UNTIL the "MOMENT". Say what you want brought from one canvass to another we saw dramatic shift after the video moment was released and THEN picked up by televison. So what I am getting at. Its one thing for "real" news but everyoneknows the thing went viral and the canvass supports it.
Lowell makes no apologies for it and should not, but to deny outside NVA Webbs numbers were climbing in the areas that secured him his victory is absurd. Review the data form the polls in areas four years earlier, compare the turnout and then look at the results in previous Pro-conservative and Republican areas.
I know Rob over at Alter canvassed virtually every weekend for the whole summer in heavily Republican districts for Webb and has written many posts about the swing of independents down in Chesterfield in that election versus this one.
Truth does matter I think to most of us. Some truth is indeed an inconvenient truth I guess.
Diarist to Daily Kos is fair enough but it was the Kos not diarist it is being reported that provided MSNBC comment regarding the issue but folks at the Kos. We have seen these many times in the history of the blogosphere have we not?
I can recall someone recently trying to attribute info on RK to RK I think in a ad. I do not agree with that at all, but this is a feel a bit different. Whether you are a Democrat or a Repug I think we all can only look to ourselves and know if the results from such diaries is truly beneficial.
If all we want to do is win at all costs then I think we lose something greater in ourselves and communities and it is truly shameful if people cannot see that. If Daily Kos is the level of discourse we want to have, all be it the diarists, then we continue to travel down the wrong path. Sacrifice long term for the short term mentality I guess.
Aznew I respect you views on most topics, byt when the site (Daily Kos) and not the diarist is referenced on cable news it provides ample validity to my point. It was the Kos as an entity that was attributed with the backstory not a single individual or diarist. The run the risk and I guess alwasy have of simply being the politcial blogging version of the National Enquirer and thats fine but the media some have some deper standard of truth in labeling when they say that the Kos has just "released a story" like they are a legitimate news wire or something.
Like grandma always said, "that smells fishy" friends.
First, the media had it wrong. Many reporters seem to simply not understand how blogs work.
Second, the media reports it that way because it fits neatly into their narrative of the Internet/bloggers as irresponsible and unturstworthy as a source of information
Third, the media is lazy, and are simply reprinting GOP talking points as if they were facts -- shocking, I know.
So, Indy, I don't just accept what I read in the media. Whatever the reason for this false report, it is a false report, as least with respect to sourcing.
Personally, I think the issue of how the public should vet Palin is a complicated matter. I feel bad for Palin's daughter, however, and her boyfriend. They are a pair of teenagers probably unequipped to deal with this problem in such a public way, and the pnly reason they are doing so is because Palin said "Yes" to McCain.
I'm not defending this behavior, but anyone who did not realize this is what would happen to these two young people has been living under a rock the last 12 years.
It is the reason Barrack Obama is where he is today .... the new leader of the Democratic Party and soon to be Leader of the Free World.
Like Indy4all I'm uncomfortable with all the Palin Pounding. Daily Kos has now become the "Angry Left" and has earned the censure of Obama himself regarding these "baby" matters. How ugly, untrue and counter-productive to assert that the youngest child was the daughter's already.
Yes babygate lends itself to a certain hypocrisy about "holier than thou" extreme Christian conservative "principals" .... but hey ... the daughter is living her own life and might be truly in love. Anyhow it's nothing worth making Gov Palin a martyr for.... and that's exactly where this whole thing is going because of GOSSIP BLOGS.
One final note. If John McCain had truly wanted to be a Maverick (aside from selecting Lieberman for VP) .... He should have reached out to select Ron Paul for Vice President. Ron Paul is going to pull the Libertarian vote out of the Republican party, particularly in a few key Western states (Nevada) ensuring a Democratic Victory.
This more then anything may ensure a Democratic Victory (that extra-measure). Personally I think the Obama campaign has all the potential of "running the table" and winning in a Landslide. Just keep Barrack Obama out there .... uniting and inspiring a broad base.
Sarah Palin is just a side-show.
They get "cover" with Palin.
this is how my twisted brain works some mornings.
I realize that Palin is just Mccains bad judgement, but part of me thinks its all the republicans bad judgement.
We could keep listing all this stuff, and you should certainly feel free to. Just beware the coming "sexism" backlash, and remember that this is about Obama vs. Bush and the Bush twins (McCain/Palin). Obama has the judgment to lead. He fulfills the American values of aspiration, empathy, and responsibility. Meanwhile, Bush and the Bush Twins talk about values and fail every time to live up to them. McCain's irresponsible choice is merely the current case in point, but it's incontrovertible and becoming clearer all the time..
How is it that Mark Warner (D) is polling 70+% against Jim Gilmore (R)
and
Barack Obama (D) is polling only 47% over John McCain with the SAME respondents???????
No one here has taken up the question and provided this conservative with a real explaination as to how this dynamic is playing out in Virginia.
I would be interested to see the next PPP tracking now that Palin has been selected and am interested to see what that does to the numbers.
If anyone here at RK would like to educate me as to why this dynamic exists in the numbers I would be grateful.
John McCain has been the leading political celebrity of the Republican party for the last 16 years, and he's a military guy. McCain's numbers are as good as they're going to get. Mark Warner is well known and widely beloved by Virginians. Obama is just now becoming known.
I'm interested in seeing where the polls are in a couple of weeks. We'll see what we see. How about this, if Obama/Biden is up outside the MOE 2 weeks from now, I'll buy you a beer. If McCain/Palin, you buy me one. If we're still floating, we'll re-bet for the next week.
Don't I owe somebody a beer from the Biden pick?
I do think it could be interesting if Gimore gets it under 10pts, I don't think that is going to happen but if he does it would have to be solely attributed to the Sarah palin effect.
My gut tells me though they will be counting votes to the wee hours of the morning on the 5th.
There is much less familiarity with the Presidential candidates - we haven't had either leading (or misleading in Gilmore's case) our commonwealth for four years. So the baseline would naturally revert to the D/R norm initially. The fact that R's have carried Virginia for many Presidential contests running should be giving McCain a significant lead. But it's not - meaning at least some of Obama's positives are beginning to move voters from their R norm. Or that some of McCain's negatives are pushing them away. Or both.
We'll see if somehow this Palin selection sticks. But I suspect as more and more people get to know what she really stands for and has really done, and as Josh indicates, what it means about McCain making a big error, we'll see Obama's numbers solidify.
Don't look for a Warner type stomping, but even in red Virginia we may well see Obama push past McCain as McCain's failure(s) pile up and Obama gets to really dig into campaigning after the Republcian Convention.