Gustav About to Come Ashore West of New Orleans

By: Lowell
Published On: 9/1/2008 7:15:22 AM


The good news: Gustav is far weaker than it could have been and is likely to miss New Orleans.  Also, it is "not strengthening, according to the National Hurricane Center.  This looks like a borderline Category 2/Category 3 storm, with winds of about 100 knots at landfall.  That's not good, but it could have been worse. Finally, it appears that almost everyone has heeded evacuation warnings and gotten inland. Apparently, people have learned from Katrina and adjusted their behavior accordingly.  

The bad news: It's still a powerful storm and could cause serious damage - heavy rains and storm surge in particular - as it slows over Louisiana and Texas. Also, the storm could remain a tropical storm through Friday; that's a long time to have all this wind and rain.

Good luck to the people of Louisiana and Texas. And politicians?  Stay the heck out of there unless you have something positive to contribute (e.g., supplies, national guard troops) and not just your delightful mug on camera!

Comments



Enough to Remind America of Katrina (dsvabeachdems - 9/1/2008 8:29:58 AM)
But not enough to let Bush look Presidential. Good for the electorate's psyche and better for the residents of Louisiana and Texas.


I've been in a 2/3 (relawson - 9/1/2008 9:45:58 AM)
It's no Katrina, but there will be places where it looks like the hand of God came down and just crushed everything.  Hopefully it isn't in densely populated areas.


Me, too (Teddy - 9/1/2008 11:44:25 AM)
on the Atlantic coast of Florida in Daytona Beach; the tidal surge brought the Atlantic ocean up over the dunes. And sometimes it seemed it would never, ever, end. No thanks.


Remember a few years ago (relawson - 9/1/2008 12:42:51 PM)
When three hurricanes crossed central Florida - all three went directly over my house.  In one of them, I was in the eye wall - which was really neat given that it's blue skies and no winds, for a moment anyways.

The worst ones last for days - gets boring after awhile.  So I agree - no thanks.  In one of them our A/C went out and the 90 degree florida heat for a week was just miserable.  We bought a portable A/C so had cool air in one room at least.  The water was also off for about a week - so I dove into the dirty pool for my "shower".



Next up: Hannah by Friday... (FMArouet21 - 9/1/2008 11:47:26 AM)

on the SE Atlantic Coast. Could reach Cat 2 status.  


Great job forecasting (TheGreenMiles - 9/1/2008 2:38:59 PM)
The National Hurricane Center did a terrific job predicting the track of this storm. They had targeted a spot west of New Orleans a full five days ago and that's just about exactly where it came ashore. You hear a lot about the forecasters when they get it wrong, but here's a case in which they nailed it.


Excellent info on the oil and natural gas situation (Lowell - 9/1/2008 5:04:26 PM)
from my former colleagues:

Petroleum
As of 12:30 pm EDT (11:30 am CDT), August 31, the Minerals Management Service was reporting that about 1.25 million barrels per day (or well over 90 percent) of the federal portion of the Gulf of Mexico's crude oil production was shut-in.  As of 10:00 am EDT (9:00 am CDT), August 31, the Department of Energy was reporting that 12 refineries in the Gulf of Mexico were shutdown, representing 2.1 million barrels per day of capacity, while another 10 refineries had reduced their crude oil throughput.  The 12 refineries that were shut down represent at least 700,000 barrels per day of gasoline output and at least 600,000 barrels per day of distillate fuel output, based on recent historical data.

However, despite the shut-in of crude oil production and refinery outages, futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were down sharply as of 2:00 pm EDT, with crude oil for October delivery down over $4 per barrel, and gasoline (RBOB) and heating oil down about 10 cents per gallon each.  Market expectations that shut-in crude oil production and refinery outages were going to be temporary is pushing prices down, removing any pre-hurricane price increases.  Of course, as yet, no assessments of damage to infrastructure have taken place.




Good graphic of oil facilities (Lowell - 9/1/2008 5:04:48 PM)