that was evident during the primary season.

The crosstabs on this have a sample that is 19% African-American.  Virginia's population according to the Quick Facts from the US Census Bureau is 19.9% black.  I would presume that given Obama on the top of the ticket, the share of turnout that is A-A will exceed the percentage in the state's population.

Also, this poll shows McCain getting 14% of Black vote while Obama gets 84%.  But as I remember the exit polls, Obama took just under 90% of the A-A vote against Clinton.  Somehow I do not think McCain, who voted against the Martin Luther King Holiday, who flipflopped on the Confederate flag, who opposes affirmative action, etc. etc. etc. is going to outperform Hillary among Virginia's blacks.

Down in Mudcat Saunders country, down in Webb's Scots-Irish Appalachia, down where they mine the coal and play that music? Any breakout on that voting block?

southwestern Virginia is included in "Shenandoah."  Go read their regional descriptions, but it's been the same way for years now...

checked the SurveyUSA website and couldnt find them

Right here:

...get to work folks.

Virginia is the new Ohio, right? :-)

In Hampton Roads we are trying to do everything we can to dispel the "McCain supports the military" myth.  Hopefully, his inability to capture the military vote will be one of the reasons he loses Virginia.

Of course, Ohio could still be the new Ohio. Ha. :)

couldn't hurt to have more Ohio's on the map and less Utah's

=OP

Obama's appears to have problems with two demographic groups in Virginia, based on this poll, voters who are in the 35-49 age bracket, and independent voters.  

Obama loses the 35-49 age bracket 53% to 42% and loses independents to McCain by the same margin, 53% to 42%.  I find Obama losing both groups by that big a margin to be a bit of a surprise.

But perhaps some in these two voting groups are open to change their mind.  Acording to this poll, 47% of McCain voters said they could change their mind, while only 37% of Obama supporters said the same.  

Obama is leading McCain among voters earning under $50,000.00, 50% to 47%, perhaps a good sign considering Obama lost this group of voters in a large number of primaries.

And Obama's lead seems to be surprisingly large in southeastern Virginina and McCain's lead seems surprisingly small in central Virginia.  

I think polls taken this early are really unreliable, especially this year.  Until the voter registration deadline passes, and we have a better idea of the make up of the electorate, a lot of the data is scewed using past  turnout models.  And with all of the voter drives going on across the state, you can toss those old turnout models out the window.        

The poll numbers in Shenandoah are interesting, but neither Gilmore nor McCain are garnering much enthusiasm among the GOP faithful, who are for the first time worried about Goodlatte. I don't think they think he'll lose (which means he just might), but they are concerned that Sam Rasoul will do some damage. Which means, I think, that Obama has a shot out here--with the Campaign for Change offices and enthusiasm, particularly among young voters and women, it could happen.

The interesting thing to me is that Obama pulls an 11% lead out of NE Virginia. If we can push that lead up to, say 15%, it would doubtless make a difference.

This is why the 80%/80% campaign in Arlington and efforts like it are so important.

Come canvas the Valley, and Southwest.  Be diplomatic, be positive, see the front.  

No time?  Send money.