Latest Polls: Obama Leads in FL, CO, VA, Nationally

By: Lowell
Published On: 7/24/2008 5:14:01 AM


Courtesy of Real Clear Politics, feast your eyes on the latest poll results for Barack Obama.  Still a long way to go and a lot of work to do, but not bad at all!  (by the way, in the new NBC/WSJ poll, "Obama's lead over McCain expands to 13 points when third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added into the mix - with Obama at 48 percent, McCain at 35 percent, Nader at 5 percent and Barr at 2 percent.")


Comments



They opened the Obama campaign Centreville Virginia Office yesterday (Used2Bneutral - 7/24/2008 12:48:44 PM)
I was there installing the data and phones as usual, we had them operational in two hours from the keys being turned over..... But what was amazing was how random locals starting walking in the front door asking to sign up to volunteer and others looking for literature to put in their businesses for Obama and especially voter registration. We hadn't even finished cleaning the soap off the front windows and getting signs in them and they started. All ages and all the ethnic groups you could imagine. Several whose English was just a little difficult to understand, but the enthusiasm was down right contageous. Many first time voters. You gotta understand, I've lived in the Centreville area for almost twenty years and it is normally a real Republican district or at least it was......

The hotest commodities are Obama buttons and yard signs....

I'll bet the open house this weekend is going to be packed.



I have the TV on.....Wow, 100K+ in Berlin (Used2Bneutral - 7/24/2008 1:12:46 PM)
Obama has a HUGE crowd there waiting to hear his speech.  They are covering it "Live" on MSNBC, CNN and Fox......


Cooking the Books? (HisRoc - 7/24/2008 7:49:19 PM)
Lowell,
I don't want to descend into nitpicking your numbers, but your overall representation is flawed.  For example, the Rasmussen poll of Florida has Obama ahead only by 1 point, unless you include the "leanings."  And the PPP poll is disputed by a Rasmussen poll from just last Friday that had McCain leading in Virginia by 1 point.

CNN, by comparison, is reporting the latest polls as good news for McCain:

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

Why do I dispute your diary?  Because this kind of false bravado can sink a campaign's momentum.  Take a look at Truman-Dewey in 1948 or Kennedy-Nixon in 1960 or numerous othere elections where the polls showed a clear lead for the eventual loser.

Misreading polls can create a sense of "inevitability" and cause supporters to relax and become complascent.  (Look how well that worked for Clinton this year.)  This is especially dangerous for Obama since he gets so much of his support from younger, first-time voters--voters who are notorious for getting enthusiastic during a campaign and then not actually showing up on Election Day to vote.  ("Oh man, like, I had that big Chemistry mid-term to cram for!")

Just as importantly, misreading polls creates a sense of unfairness and theories of stolen elections when the projected loser wins.  After Kennedy upset Nixon in 1960, rumors started (and continue to this day) that Mayor Richard Daley delivered Illinois to Kennedy with massive voter fraud in Chicago, rumors that Nixon himself denied.

Let's hold off on the confetti until the results are more favorable and not still well within the margin of error.  



Enthusiastic Voter/Volunteer (hallcr3 - 7/24/2008 10:45:30 PM)
Hey! I resent that "Oh man, like" comment!

Not funny, dude, not funny.



My Sincerest Apologies (HisRoc - 7/24/2008 11:14:22 PM)
I did not intend to offend anyone, dude.

Now, go clean up your room and put the trash out.

:)



And (HisRoc - 7/24/2008 11:15:27 PM)
Remind your peeps to vote!