Rasmussen: 44% Obama-44% McCain in Virginia

By: Lowell
Published On: 7/18/2008 7:46:30 AM

It doesn't get much closer than this:

The presidential race in Virginia is now dead even, with Barack Obama and John McCain each drawing 44% of the vote, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Oh, and "Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a 37.0% chance of carrying the state again this fall." That's not great if you're John McCain, especially considering that Virginia hasn't voted Democratic for president since 1964.  Right now, it's looking verrrrry shaky for McSame.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is pouring resources into the Commonwealth, and with $52 million raised in June, it looks like they'll have a lot more resources to do even more of that in coming months.  This should be interesting...


Comments



Somebody help me out (perkinsms - 7/18/2008 9:06:49 AM)
Someone close to me says she's likely to vote for McCain.  She's been a lifelong democrat, and this would be her first time voting Republican, but considers that Obama "doesn't have any ideas" or "always is so negative".  I know, tell me about it.

Please, can someone point me to the #1 best video, presentation or speech I can have her look at that both presents a concrete policy proposal and also offers a positive vision for the future of the country?  

She supported Hillary for the primary, likely to be interested in education.  She worries about Obama's "experience" compared to McCain.

Any help?



There are a million videos (Lowell - 7/18/2008 9:50:13 AM)
but honestly, someone like that...not sure at this point there's much you can do.  I'd argue the Supreme Court, but it's probably futile.


*sigh* (uva08 - 7/18/2008 9:51:40 AM)
First, I have to ask if you think your friend can be convinced?  There are a lot of people out there who are going to see what they want to see to justify their pre-existing ideas.  Anyway, if you think it is possible to to sway your friend's opinion, there was a diary on Kos a few weeks ago that gave some good tips on this (I cannot find it now, but if I do I will post the link).  Also, if education is one of her top issues, then I would point her to the education portion on Obama's site: http://www.barackobama.com/iss... .  There is a brief version as well as an extended pdf version of his plan.  I would also call attention to the differences between McCain and Obama's voting record on this (funding Head Start, Pell Grant funding, funding for disadvantaged schools, etc.)


Does she watch Faux?? (ericy - 7/18/2008 10:38:42 AM)

Where does this "always so negative" thing come from??  Ahh - she was a Hillary supporter.  

I suppose it is possible that there is some lingering bitterness that Hillary didn't get the nomination.  These feelings can fade with time - that's why we didn't want the convention fight.

I would also argue the Supreme Court.  Give the Republicans one or two more court picks, and you can flush Roe v. Wade down the toilet.



Maybe a "PUMA?" (Lowell - 7/18/2008 10:57:26 AM)
Or a closet racist?  Honestly, at this point I've lost pretty much all patience with any "Democrat" who talks about voting for McSame.  


Definitely not a racist. (perkinsms - 7/18/2008 1:20:08 PM)
Racist?  I've known her for a long time and I know she's not like that.  She's old enough to remember the civil rights fights of the '60s

@uva08:  I've asked her if she's willing to have me convince her and she told me that would be OK.  I'll look into the items on his website.  That's what convinced me early.

@ericy:  Never watches Fox or cable news.  Watches local news, reads "Newsweek", which is a Wash Post publication.

What's the one best video?  Don't give up, this is a Virginia likely voter here!



There's no one video. (Lowell - 7/18/2008 1:22:42 PM)
Seriously, there's no way one video will convince someone when they are 180 degrees wrong on something.

The fact is, Obama's got tons of ideas, many (most?) of which are laid out on his website. Also, I'd argue that he's been overwhelmingly positive, to such an extent that the new JibJab video pokes fun at him for that.  



While I definitely do not believe in giving up on most people, (uva08 - 7/18/2008 2:01:28 PM)
I have come to learn that these "experience," "no ideas," and certainly "always negative" arguments are typically tired excuses people come up to justify why they won't support Obama when they know their real reason(s) aren't socially acceptable (whether it be they are prejudice, afraid he is a secret Muslim, or disgruntled because they didn't their way in the primary)


Agree 100% (Lowell - 7/18/2008 3:18:59 PM)
The reason I agree 100% is that saying things like Obama has "no ideas" or is "always negative" is so patently false, you just KNOW the person's looking for any reason not to support him and just making up s***.  It doesn't take a PhD in psychology to figure this out, btw.


closet racists (pvogel - 7/18/2008 11:26:41 AM)
There are a lot of them out there.
They will deny it to the death, and come up with illogical reasons  to "Not vote" for Obama.

Nothing to be done about it.. It will illustrate just how much progress since Oj we have made( NONE)

I would argue we have made very little  progress since MLK days.

Its like  Moses in the desert. we may have to wait for the generation that remembers  whites only and colored only water fountains to die off.



I actually think we've made some progress, but... (Lowell - 7/18/2008 11:58:16 AM)
...not enough, apparently.  


Not sure that is fair (aznew - 7/18/2008 12:55:22 PM)
There are plenty of closet racists out there -- there are some even unaware of how racist they are, something I've seen personally among some of the older folks in my dad's retirement complex -- but not every Democrat who opts not to vote for Obama is racist.

So, while I think your assessment might be generally fair, it is a dicier proposition when you try to apply it to anyone one individual in particular, IMHO.

As for your statement:

I would argue we have made very little  progress since MLK days.

An African American is likely to be elected President of the United States. Our last two Secretaries of State in a GOP Administration have been African American. The Congressional Black Caucus has 40+ members. Virginia, where the capital of the Confederacy was located, has had an African American Governor, and that same man is mayor of the very city that served as the Capital.

We have made a lot of progress.

We just have far to go.



Yeah, that's pretty much how I feel. (Lowell - 7/18/2008 1:04:23 PM)
"We have made a lot of progress.

We just have far to go."



There are still a lot of people who aren't wise to the media (Rebecca - 7/18/2008 12:19:39 PM)
I still have somewhat intelligent friends who are not fully aware of the propaganda which comes out in the media. They tend to believe things without thinking about the source. Its a kind of intellectual laziness or maybe a desire to trust that we still live with a relatively trustworthy media. The only thing I can say is to give this person a call every couple of weeks. Ask about their concerns about Obama and try to clarify his views and give examples, but don't push for any conclusions. I think being helpful rather than pushy might help bring over some people who are on the fence. I plan to take this approach with one of my friends.


At some point, though (Lowell - 7/18/2008 12:24:40 PM)
I think we've just gotta tell people they're being stupid.  I mean, seriously, the future of the country and the planet are at stake, and they're listening to the morons on Faux News, Limbaugh, etc. to make their decisions who to vote for?  Well, sheeeeeeiiiiiieeeet.