You're probably thinking, where on earth did Lowell study math, because that is one weird formula! OK, so let me explain what I'm talking about and then decide how weird you think it is.
According to today's Washington Post, Mark Warner has a "44-to-1 money advantage" over Jim Gilmore, $5.1 million in the bank for Warner vs. only $117,000 for Gilmore. According to the Post article, this enormous cash edge gives Warner "a commanding advantage [over Gilmore] in his ability to reach out to voters." That's potentially huge, both for Mark Warner's margin of victory (I know, I know, don't take anything for granted, but if Mark Warner doesn't win this race, it's going to be a horrible November all around) as well as for his potential "coat tails" up (Barack Obama) and down (Judy Feder, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, Gerry Connolly) the ticket.
Next, the Post reports:
According to federal finance reports, the Virginia Democratic Party has a 9-to-1 advantage over the state Republican Party in money that can be used to try to influence the outcome of the presidential, Senate and congressional races. Virginia Democrats, who are trying to raise at least $3 million for their coordinated campaign, have $841,000 in their federal account, compared with the state GOP's $92,000.
Again, this is a huge advantage for the Democrats this year, possibly forcing the Republicans to shift millions of dollars away from other key races around the country - and remember, Republicans have many more vulnerable House and Senate seats than do the Democrats - into Virginia, a state that until recently was assumed to be solid "red" in presidential years. That's called "spreading the playing field," and I'm pretty sure it's not what the Republicans were hoping for heading into 2008.
As DPVA Executive Director Levar Stoney says, "We are going to be using our resources to reach out to voters to make sure we elect Democrats up and down the ticket, from Obama to Warner to our congressional candidates." And he very well could be right. But before we get all giddy, let's all remember that Virginia isn't "blue" yet, in fact it's about as "purple" as you can get, divided culturally and politically along geographic, racial, ethnic, and other lines. Which means we can't let up for a minute in our efforts for this fall. Need some motivation? Consider what Gov. Kaine said the other day at the Arlington JJ dinner: Barack Obama doesn't necessarily NEED Virginia's 13 electoral votes to become president, but if he DOES win those 13 electoral votes, he WILL BE PRESIDENT.
So, if Barack Obama is winning Virginia, and Mark Warner is romping (60%-40%? 65%-35%?) over Jim Gilmore, and Democratic turnout is through the roof (Arlington's shooting for 80% turnout, 80% Democratic performance), what does that imply for Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, Judy Feder, and Gerry Connolly? None of us know for sure, but somehow it seems to me that 44:1+9:1 might just equal 13 electoral votes (and possibly several 51% or greater victories at the Congressional level) this fall for a number of these candidates. Now, it's up to all of us - the "rag tag army" people - to make it happen. Let's do it!
I know that Mr. Fredericks likes to have fundraisers with Tom Delay, etc. Perhaps he can gin up some of that magic....