Mike Murphy is one of the Republicans' top political strategists, having advised - among others - John McCain, Jeb Bush, Tommy Thompson, and Mitt Romney. Here's Murphy on yesterday's Meet the Press:
MR. MURPHY: Ticker tape parades, you know, dogs--cats chasing dogs. The world would turn upside-down. And we've had a rough year, so we would be very, very happy. We're scared of Tim Kaine. Because if they can get some electoral action going in Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia, which are all Republican-tilting states that could get into play, we are in huge trouble; just like they're terrified of Tom Ridge.[...]
...just on winning the election, I think Kaine is very strong. You can also argue for Bayh out of Indiana and the Midwest, that key region I talked about. But if--the Kaine thing is audacious, but if they could get something going on the Atlantic coast there, it's a big problem for the Republicans.
So, the question is, would Tim Kaine help Barack Obama "get something going on the Atlantic coast" - in North Carolina, Georgia, and right here in Virginia? My own opinion is that we already HAVE "something going," but certainly Tim Kaine would help in Virginia. I'm skeptical, however, that Kaine would help Obama much in Georgia or North Carolina. Still, if turnout is high enough - particularly among African Americans - those states could be close, so perhaps having a southern governor on the ticket is...well, just the "ticket" after all?
Is that why it was Kaine's wife who introduced Barack at the Robinson rally? To avoid TK getting booed for that and for endorsing an opponent of a female candidate at a town hall on women's issues?
Could Kaine even carry No Va now?
If Barack wants to contest or win Va, he has to carry No Va. Kaine could hurt him here.
Also, while I would stop short of believing there really is a monolithic "Catholic vote," any more than there is a "women's vote," I know a lot of Republicans who voted for Kaine and most of them are, no surprise, Catholic. Do you have any idea how many Catholics there are in Virginia?
Across the rest of the Confederacy, it's less than 10% and in some states less than 2%. In large measure, this is a result of the lack of economic opportuities in the South during times of Catholic emigration from Europe (Irish 1840s, Italians & Poles 1870-1920) and the KKK's anti-Catholic terrorism campaigns in the 1920s.
Re Kaine's wife. Gerry Connolly warmed up the crowd so I don't think gender was the basis for the choice of Ms. Kaine.
As for Kaine's appeal to Catholics, his repeated executions are each a mortal sin and do him no favors with Catholics as the Church is very clear that capital punishment is a sin.
Dissaffected NoVa voters and Catholics might spend their time and money on the Warner race if Kaine is Obama's pick.
I know I would if Barack chooses TK.
Kaine has no lead, has not achieved, has not distinguished himself. He's ridden the fence to much to have won the support of true partisans (check the masthead), and he's been too partisan on other issues to have achieved any kind of moderate status.
Essentially, on issue after issue and on nearly every critical moment, he's just been flat wrong. He hasn't earned a national reputation, because he hasn't been a leader here in Virginia.
Obama could not do worse.
In all fairness, he has been an able administrator and has done a very good job supporting the resurgence of the Democratic party here in Virginia. Still, that's not nearly enough to give him the stature that would strike fear into the hearts of Republicans. That's what it would mean to have Jim Webb in the #2 slot, but you know, I just can't fault Webb. He did his part in this election cycle, by taking out George Allen.
Murphy may very well believe he is engaging some clever Nixonian (or Br'er Rabbit) subterfuge by spinning Kaine to the fore. The Grand Oil Party likely fears more an Obama-Clinton juggernaut -- what they view as a Dem dream team-- given their own dynastic / nepotist propensities. A secondary reason might be the assured near term payoff of a year of Virginia's governorship.
Just as likely is that they REALLY DO FEAR KAINE on the ticket and are saying so, knowing full well that some Dems will say "Ah ha! They say the fear Kaine, which means they don't!"
Or Murphy could simply be telling the truth.
It doesn't matter. Let them opine and bloviate. Voters will judge the VP candidate on little more than appearances and oratory skill, and here TK is sharp as a cyberknife. Obama should pick based on who he knows will have his back and who lets him stand out as the best Presidential candidate.
I've posted my reasons for supporting Obama-Kaine before. To sum up, I have filmed their joint appearances since 2005, and the power of their synergy just grows every time.
Foreign policy is best served with a strong decision maker and good advisors.
We can never forget September 11th.