There's an interesting article in this morning's Washington Times entitled, "Kaine left standing in veepstakes: Detractors point to lack of successes." The bottom line is that Tim Kaine is a real possibility to be Barack Obama's running mate; from what I've heard, he may even be the top choice.
On the plus side, Tim Kaine is a southern governor (and, importantly, NOT another US Senator); generally viewed as a "moderate" (DLC, former Joe Lieberman endorser, repealed the estate tax, has allowed executions to proceed, etc.); perceived as working class/common man (Clinton did better than Obama among that group); a man of faith ("Catholic missionary in Honduras") who is comfortable speaking about religion; grew up in the midwest (Minnesota and the Kansas City area), a key "swing" area; has great personal chemistry with Obama; is a tireless campaigner and fundraiser; has a "squeaky clean" background by almost all accounts.
On the minus side, as some blogger :) from RK says, "Virginia right now has a lot of problems" and "it's not like this unmitigated record of success you could just point to" regarding Kaine. Another issue, as that same blogger points out, is that "Republicans and Democrats in the state right now are at each other's throats," while ""Obama's running to go beyond red and blue." Then there's the fact that Tim Kaine doesn't bring any national security, foreign policy or military experience to the ticket. That's why I've been pushing Jim Webb, Wes Clark, Tony Zinni, people like that. Kaine also doesn't bring any economic populism ("fair trade," emphasis on the gap between rich and poor, etc.), as in Webb's "three Americas" or Edwards' "two Americas." Remember, Kaine signed the estate tax repeal, which was a highly regressive move with regard to wealth distribution.
Finally, there's the issue that Kaine's departure would elevate Republican LG Bill Bolling to the governor's mansion. On this one, I take a strongly contrarian view to most people. The way I see it is that not much will get done in 2009 anyway, and that making Bolling governor for a little while will throw the Republicans' well-laid plans into chaos. How does a nasty McDonnell-Bolling primary in '09 sound to you? Personally, I love it. And something tells me that Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds love it too. Anyway, as far as I'm concerned that issue has been way overblown, and in the opposite direction from a strategic point of view.
So, what do you think? Should Tim Kaine be Barack Obama's running mate? Would that all but guarantee Virginia for the Democrats? Does Kaine bring what Obama needs to the ticket? I look forward to your thoughts.
PS Other bloggers quoted in the article include Ben Tribbett and Jerome Armstrong. Check it out.
I really think Obama will pick someone to be VP whom will be a cypher to most folks. Thats my sense of things.
Of course, I could be the VP choice and Obama would still defeat Mccain :}
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so I won't reiterate here...but one thing keeps coming back to me. Even if obama is sure he can hold all the Kerry 2004 states, why pick Kaine? Grabbing Virginia is not enough to put him over 269. By the same token, if he thinks he has Kerry 2004 plus Ohio in the bag...again, why pick Kaine? I fail to see that he brings anything uniquely substantive to the ticket, and he is not the person that most folks see as being ready to be the president in waiting...not to mention that little matter of potentially turning the Virginia governorship over to the GOP.
By the same token, Tim Kaine is riding an electoral lucky streak (being able to go statewide from a city council seat, weak opposition in 2001 and 2005)...so it may well happen...I just don't see him as the strongest add for Obama.
This is what a week at scout camp does...one's command of semantics goes to mush!
Personally, I think Webb should be the VP and Kaine should appoint himself to the Senate (can he do that in Virginia? lol)... but that would leave Bolling as governor, right?
National Security strength can come from various avenues - policy advisors, cabinet, etc. Does not have to be VP! In fact it shouldn't be VP.
As stated yesterday - Kaine brings tons and tons of cross over voter appeal.
So what does it do for Virginia if Kaine is on the ticket? Well, for one, it puts the Republican Party of Virginia in a tough spot. At this point, they have already decided that AG Bob McDonnell will be their nominee and LG Bill Bolling will run for re-election. Should Bolling be elevated to the governor's mansion, does he step aside and allow McDonnell to run? Or does he run instead, despite his reasons for not pursuing the nomination? I find it difficult to believe that Bolling would step aside. In fact, serving as governor kinda makes his reasons (committment to family and colleagues) moot.A second thing that Kaine on the ticket may accomplish is a settling of who the Democratic nominee for governor will be. I believe Kaine has been reluctant to negotiate a compromise between Senator Creigh Deeds and Delegate Brian Moran because he needed the support of both of them in order to try to advance his agenda in the General Assembly. Freed of this, Kaine could sit the two of them down and work out a compromise, drawing straws if necessary. Avoiding a costly (and potentially nasty) primary would work to the advantage of Democrats in 2009, setting the stage for a third consecutive Democratic governship. And it would go a long way towards healing whatever animosity Democrats in Virginia would have towards Kaine for leaving us with Bolling.
Finally, if Obama/Kaine is a winning ticket, can you imagine the value of having the sitting VP campaign for the Democratic candidate in Virginia in 2009? Virginia has a long history of chosing its governor from the opposite party of that of the president. If Kaine campaigns vigorously for the gubernatorial nominee, and Virginia Democrats remain engaged, the potential for a Democratic governor goes way up. (And if Bolling is the Republican nominee, they go way up.)
In fact, serving as governor kinda makes his reasons (committment to family and colleagues) moot.
I don't see that. Serving a year as a placeholder might be acceptable, while 4 years in the eye of the storm may not.
Of course, once there, Bolling (or anyone) might have a hard time taking a step back.
I also can't quite believe this is serious:
Kaine could sit the two of them down and work out a compromise, drawing straws if necessary.
I presume this is hyperbole. IMHO, Kaine acting as kingmaker would be the worst way to settle the Moran/Deeds contest, for either man.
That all being said, the emergence of Kaine as the top-runner by the MSM all at once does create the impression this info is coming from the Obama campaign. But it could just be the MSM echo chamber.
As for not following the logic on Bolling: the LG's position is a part-time one, while the governor's position is not. If you read the linked post, Bolling has said he doesn't have time to run full time. Well, if he has time to SERVE full time, he certainly has time to run.
Read the linked post on Bolling, and now see what you were saying.
1. Comfort with possible VP as top surrogate
2. Provides knowledge and experience that Obama doesn't have
3. Reinforces messages in Obama's campaign
Obama has stated in the past that he is VERY comfortable with his knowledge and judgement on national security, and therefore he is very unlikely to choose a VP to "shore up" those credentials. Webb was a candidate for VP not because of his national security experience. Instead, IMHO, Webb was on the short list for VP because he is a strong spokesman for the Democratic party and for Democratic values (especially on economic populism).
From Obama's own priorities, I think that Kathleen Sebelius will be VP, especially because Obama has strongly praised her performance as governor. Kaine is a real possibility, though, because they are close friends and allies. I'd prefer Sebelius, though, because she is much more prgressive than Kaine is. At this point, I wouldn't consider Kaine a progressive at all (although he's not a conservative either).
Also, I'd MUCH rather have Kaine serve out his term here in Virginia. The Democratic leadership of the VA Senate has been unable to bottle up harmful legislation in committee, such as death penalty expansion and shutting down funding to Planned Parenthood. So, we really need Kaine's veto power to prevent horrible legislation from getting through until we can take over the VA House as well (which is an outside possibility for 2009).
Hagel or Biden or Zinni (although I would much prefer Zinni as Natl Security Advisor). Just about no one else qualified by experience and judgement.