Electoral College Update - July 2008 - Obama continues to surge

By: Dan
Published On: 7/4/2008 7:15:58 PM

One month ago, I examined the Electoral College numbers breakdown and I concluded that Obama has 238 electoral votes in his column and McCain has 216, with 84 electoral votes left in a toss-up.  Since then, a swath of new polls has come out, blanketing the country with a clearer picture.  Obama has clearly gained some momentum, especially with Hillary strongly behind him.  Polls in blue states are very favorable.  Polls in states leaning Democrat are mostly favorable.  Polls in some red states are good, but in some toss-ups, there are still question marks.  If the election were held today, we can assume confidently that Barack Obama would be our next President.  Each month, I will update this list, and see if Obama is still on a path to the White House, and on a path to charting America on a very different path than the one that we have taken for the past 7 years.

Below the flip is my July Update.  Because this race appears more wide open than I thought, this time, I am ranking based on safe, likely, leaning, and toss-up.  This follows the Cook Political Report rankings system and helps reduce the number of pure toss-ups.
Obama vs. McCain
For Obama, safe states are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington State, and Washington DC.  
13 States + DC (~34% of U.S. population, 183 electoral votes)

States likely for Obama are: Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Wisconsin
4 States (~5% of U.S. population, 31 electoral votes)

States leaning for Obama are: Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania.
5 States (~11% of U.S. population, 59 electoral votes)

For McCain, safe states are: Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.  
14 States (~22% of U.S. population, 116 electoral votes)

States likely for McCain are: Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, and South Carolina
4 States (~4% of U.S. population, 26 electoral votes)

States leaning for McCain are: Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and North Carolina 8 States (~18% of U.S. population, 90 electoral votes)

Toss-up States are: Ohio, Virginia
2 States (~6% of U.S. population, 33 electoral votes)


Obama: 214 with likely states.
Obama: 273 with likely and leaning states.
McCain: 142 with likely states.
McCain: 232 with likely and leaning states.
Toss-ups left: 33 electoral votes.

So what does this mean?

Well, it means that if Obama wins the states currently leaning his way, he can win the election without needing to win the toss-up states of Ohio and Virginia.  It means he can lose Florida and Ohio and still win the election.  It means Obama would be picking up three states Kerry lost, Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico, while McCain would be gaining none of the states that Kerry won.  

McCain is still holding strong in traditional Republican states in the Great Plains and the South.  Although, some of the polls show that his leads in these states are clearly not as strong as Bush's leads were in 2004, he still looks like he has them in his corner.

Bob Barr's entry into the race may have an affect in some parts of the country.  The two states where this affect has the best opportunity to flip the race one way or another are Georgia, his home state, and Nevada, which should be the home state of the Libertarian Party.  However, it is still too early to gauge that impact until we know how many states Barr is on the ballot.

Obama is doing alright in the West, where he has two potential pick-ups that Kerry lost.  However, Obama's bread and butter right now is in the Midwest, which includes Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Michigan.  Polls show him strongly outperforming John Kerry in these states.  Kerry won only 4 of these states, but polls show Obama consistently ahead in 6 of them, and competitive in all 8 of them!  

Key to Obama's success in the primaries, the Midwest is where Obama brings to the race a changing paradigm.  Religious conservatives in the Midwest clearly tilted the race to Bush in Iowa and Ohio in 2004.  However, this year, McCain and Obama do not differ greatly in their religious credentials.  Obama's home base of Illinois makes him even more sympathetic being an Illinois Senator.  Bottom line:  McCain has a lot

For updated polls state by state, see Electoral-Vote.com

Comments



I think you should throw Indiana into the "Toss-up" pile (DanG - 7/4/2008 11:27:16 PM)
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Indiana is prime territory for an Obama upset.  If somebody like Evan Bayh is on the ticket, he might just win it.  And Indiana's 11 votes in the EC are nothing to laugh at.  if Indiana and Virginia go to Obama, he could even lose Michigan.



Agreed (Lowell - 7/5/2008 5:47:59 AM)
It's hard to believe, but Indiana looks potentially competitive right now.


If Obama picks Evan Bayh as a running mate . . . (True Blue - 7/5/2008 9:32:37 AM)
it could become very competitive.


No way (Dan - 7/6/2008 12:28:05 PM)
Indiana is a Republican State.  It leans towards McCain.  I do not care what a bunch of early polls say.  I've seen other polls where Obama was losing by 5 or 6.  I could technically say that Montana leans Obama, due to one poll showing him ahead.  However, I also remember that Montana is a conservative state, and some previous polls had Obama losing by 5 to 10 points.  Until I see some more evidence, I refuse to consider Indiana as a toss-up.  


FiveThirtyEight . . . (JPTERP - 7/5/2008 12:59:44 AM)
Is another source worth checking out.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

Even though the recent polling data says otherwise my sense is that New Hampshire is probably closer to the toss-up category than likely Dem.  The recent polls have trended in Obama's favor, but there have been points where McCain was much closer -- even ahead in late April.  If Obama's lead stays where it is into September I'll feel better about securing the state.  

Iowa on the other hand seems much more favorable to Obama.  I think quite a few GOP leaners -- especially social conservatives -- could end up staying home come election day -- or casting a vote for Barr.



Good Point (Dan - 7/6/2008 12:29:53 PM)
That is why this is dynamic.  New Hampshire probably is closer, but for now, McCain's "independence" seems to be waning, and perhaps New Hampshire with Shaheen running for Senate, will boost Obama even further.