He has also moved VA-5 from safe to likely Republican.  On that note, I think I may make my first donation to a candidate running for a House seat.

What is the difference between Safe and Likely?

I think "safe" means that there is little to no chance at all that a certain candidate will lose the race and the observer thinks there is little or no chance the race will be competitive.  "Likely" means that (according to the pundit) one person is heavily favored to win the race, but the contest has the potential to be competitive.  

If you look at the top, you will see how cook defines likely, lean, and toss-up: http://cookpolitical.com/chart...

is the fact that the trend is moving in Tom Perriello's direction.

I'm not exactly sure how a St. Anne's-Belfield-grad from the almost D.C. suburb of Albemarle County, the farthest northern reach of the 5th, is a "perfect fit" for the district. Why, because he's religious? That's a really bush league view of the district if I've ever heard one.  

Goode will rail against NAFTA and illegals, shake his bony little fist in the air about gun rights, hand out emory boards at fire station chicken dinners and paint this poor sap of a candidate as a pointy-headed liberal Yale alum who's come calling in the guise of the "candidate of faith" and, on Election Day, Goode will wipe the floor with him, just like he did Al Weed two years ago...and four years ago. Fighting atrocities in Africa? Does anyone seriously think that's part of a message that will resonate with voters who have seen their way of life--furniture production, textiles and apparel manufacturing, the tobacco economy--annihilated in the last decade?  

Maybe, one day, someone in the Democratic Party will bother to educate him or herself about the 5th District and realize that a candidate from the Charlottesville end of the district cannot win. L.F. Payne was an aberration, and the many influentials in the district -- the Dixiecrats, the Philpott Democrats, the Blue Dogs, whatever you want to call them -- have died or moved or gone on to other things. Al Weed in '04--defeated. Al Weed in '06--defeated. And so it goes.

I hope people stop swallowing the pundit Kool-Aid on the 5th District and actually find a candidate from the heart of Southside...think Danville, Martinsville...somewhere other than C'ville...who will be able to fight Goode on his own turf, using language and talking issues that people can actually understand.

if that is what they want.  If they want a pal they can hang out with and that is the qualifier for their vote, then by all means let them.  If they want to eat up pandering from Goode, who could from his voting record obviously care less about the plight of his constituents, let them.  They are free individuals.  If they aren't willing to look beyond the superficial, well you get what you pay for.

Honestly, why does it matter where in the district a candidate comes from?  Is there some petty regionalism that cripples a candidate from outside some favored area?  That is what you are suggesting.  It sounds ridiculous.  Why even bother to run a candidate then?  

but, if you think that this is the first time that people here have been fed this line of reasoning from an "uninterested" observer from Southside, well ...

No place in this country or state is exactly the same as any other place. And I'm sure the people of Southside writ large are different than those from Charlottesville or Norfolk or Chantilly. But probably what's not different is that, as the economy continues to tank and it gets harder to make ends meet, people are open to looking at new answers rather than the same old, same old if someone looks them in the eye, doesn't condescend or talk down to 'em, and says, "Hey, I want to be your voice in Congress and stick up for you."

Good 'ole Virgil might be the king of the chicken dinner in Southside and may rile up some angry folk with his Mexican-bashing and general xenophobia, but I'm guessing more folks these days are pissed that ALL their costs are going up in every area and that, aside from the occasional vote against free trade agreements, once they hear that Good 'ole Virgil has an unfortunate record of adhering to Grand Ole Party orthodoxy in lock-step fashion that they'll consider someone else. That's step one.

Step two is saying, here's a young guy that has shown he wants to work to help people abroad, and damn sure also wants to do that where he's from. People may speak ill of do-gooders when the times are good, but my experience has shown that, when the chips are down and someone that is honest and genuine is there to speak up to help, people are happy to work with those that extend their hands in friendship and solidarity.

So, go on. You just keep being dismissive and we'll see what happens. Probably, you're right. Probably. In most years. But I have a feeling about 2008, and that good old CW has a way of swinging hard when it swings.