US Midwest floods may raise coal, electricity prices: Barclays 6.20.2008
Near-term off-peak power price increases are expected in the Midwest, Eastern and Southeastern electric utility markets.
Biofuel needed to prevent greater oil price rises, say producers 6.20.2008
Amid rising criticism that biofuel production is causing food price inflation, biofuel production accounts for an estimated 1/3 of the food price spike, while supplying an additive to diesel fuel, 2/3 of world supply is consumed by EU nations.
Chesapeake Energy says shale leasehold costs are rising sharply 6.20.2008
The 3rd largest gas producer in the US says costs in major gas shale leases, have risen dramatically over the past several month. Increases of two to three times costs have resulted from competition.
Global LNG demand to bolster US natural gas prices: Goldman Sachs 6.19.2008
Increases in demand from Asia and Europe for excess US supply, will drive LNG prices higher, even as the US economy slows.
The news doesn't stop there. Since the beginning of June, a steady flow of less than positive news from the industry reveal the problems are real, honest, complex, and cover a wide assortment of issues. More on the flip.
US entering period of 'significantly higher' power prices: FERC 6.19.2008
Power prices are rising significantly due to high fuel costs, regulation and increased construction costs, with natural gas leading the trend. Demand for electricity will increase 14% by 2016.
For the next few years, "natural gas will be crucial,"...while wind farms are being built rapidly, gas most likely will be the dominant power source for additional generation capacity over the next decade
Oil tycoon says US DOE, FERC need more transmission siting power 6.17.2008
Mesa Power's T. Boone Pickens desires more federal siting authority for new transmission by expanding national transmission corridor designations. Believes expanded FERC powers will enable wind generators to obtain grid connectivity once a power purchaser has signed a contract. Wyoming state regulators agreed, however, DOE Ass't Sec. Kolevar tempered expectations advising there is no overnight solution.
Maryland PSC approves June 9 solicitation for 1,166 MW of power 6.17.2008
New power arraignments to secure FERC reliability standards will result in large electric utility increases.
Allegheny Power's residential customers will see their annual billsincrease an average of 15.7% over the annual bills last year as a result ofthe June 9 solicitation.Beginning September 1, Baltimore Gas and Electric Type II energy billswill increase by between 26% and 37% compared with the same period in 2007.
Delmarva Power and Light's Type II customers will see an increase intheir energy bills on September 1 ranging between 23% and 26% compared withthe year before.
Potomac Electric's Type II customers will see an increase in their billson September 1 between 23% and 24% compared with last year.
Efficiency is a "sure winner in many contexts" and new nuclear baseload plants, although expensive and still a decade away, are less costly to build per megawatt than renewable power projects and ccs facilities."Let me say unequivocally I cannot imagine dealing with the CO2 problem without very substantial additions of new nuclear -- at least 30 new plants by 2030 -- and if we are going to really meet the goals that people are talking about for 2050, I think legitimately you are talking about doubling and perhaps tripling the size of the nation's nuclear" fleet
"There is no question that the US will enact some form of climate change legislation in the next administration," (but)
"We must resist the efforts being made by some to make our industry thetax collector through carbon costs to our customers so that others at thefederal level can be heroes in doling out vast sums of money raised on thebacks of our customers,"
US FERC's Wellinghoff questions value of national grid corridors 6.13.2008
Prefers a national grid transmission development centered around states' cooperation.
Constellation Energy restarts Baltimore plant idled for 5 years 6.10.2008
The 105 MW gas-fuel power plant in downtown Baltimore, is needed to meet growing electric demand during peak hours. Rising costs in power markets have made the restart of the 38 year-old power plant economical despite imposed regulatory costs.
World needs $45 trillion to halve emissions by 2050: IEA study 6.6.2008
An average of 35 coal and 20 gas-fired power plants per year would have to be fitted with CCS technology, between 2010 and 2050 at a cost of $1.5 billion each, and there must be an additional 32 new nuclear plants and an increase of about 17,500 wind turbines each year during that time to meet 2050 goals.
ERCOT calls special meeting on transmission-congestion proposal 6.5.2008
Electric transmission bottlenecks, which normally surface in the summer, developed in May causing congestion costs to soar to record levels in the Houston and south Texas markets.
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While many profess more renewables, others push for increased supplies of fossil-fuels. But both sides fully must understand the impediments each face. Still others believe energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) is the answer. Although EEC is the closest concept the industry has to a silver bullet, for being clean, cheap and available, the overlooked fact with EEC, however, is eventually the grid reaches the tipping point where new capacity is required.
Furthermore, understanding projections in electricity demand will grow by 30% by the year 2030, all while EEC and renewables adds the same or more in capacity (although intermittent) one must not fail to heed the 20-25 year timeframe, which exists before our achievable goals are reached.
During this transition period, the price for fossil-fuels should not threaten to hinder this nation's economy or her citizens way of living. Runaway prices and the instability of fossil-fuel resources may disrupt our nation's ability to fulfill her clean energy goals. Meanwhile, green-house gases do threaten to increase harm to the air we breathe, and (at the very least)possibly affect the climate we live in.
Understanding how all three, renewables, fossil and EEC, must be used in addressing both sides of the problem during this transition, uncovers the reality our transition from heavy fossil-fuel to a lowered-fossil fuel consuming economy, will not happen at a flip of a switch. Therefore, no one should expect prudent energy policymaking to eliminate any resource available, renewable or otherwise.
With this in mind, Senator Webb's stance does not give delight to Senator McCain or his allies. As I see it, it narrows the gap between the two the parties' energy stance, and even bolsters Webb's likelihood as Obama's running mate. The new stance is smart, and attracts moderates looking for the same from our energy policymakers. Lets not forget, Obama originally co-sponsored the senate clean coal legislation last year with Senator Bunning, a Republican from Kentucky, which encouraged among other things, carbon-sequestration and capture. This bit of legislation hasn't decreased Obama's popularity among the environmental left, has it?
Policy should not be focused solely on the development of clean energy, or promote only those wishes of big energy. Energy policy needs to be smarter by being broader, cleaner, reliable and affordable; and expanding natural gas exploration is a piece of that puzzle, as is a wide assortment of resources set by market forces, including safe nuclear. Investments in the smart grid technologies will fully maximizes resources added thru renewables and EEC. Smart Energy knows no political party.
As for the content, I do agree from a practical perspective that we'll need to address all three aspects, development and implementation of renewables, continued use of fossil fuels, and improving efficiency. Where I diverge somewhat is in the amount energy (pun intended) we should put into each.
Given the dire situation we all face, we must place much greater emphasis on renewables and EEC. Meaning, despite the difficulties and, quite frankly, the lack of public support for conserving energy, our political and industry leaders must push hard for EEC. If that happened, the 30% increase in demand by 2030 would be way off. The greater the EEC, the more that forecast is off.
Same with renewables. We're suffering though one of the worst renewable-friendly administrations at the worst possible time. Federal, state, and perhaps even local governments need to be pouring money into renewable R&D instead of pouring it into tax breaks for oil companies and other props for the existing systems. Luckily we'll be changing the administration soon, but we won't have as much turnover in Congress - and they seem to be dragging their feet as well. Not nearly as badly as Dubya, but they need to make sure massive amounts of R&D funding go into renewables ASAP.
And yes, all of this adds up to some lifestyle changes and short term expenses for many people. Hopefully there will be long term financial savings for most, but it will certainly cost more in the short term. And it's happening at a bad time due to the economic downturn. Sadly, there's never a good time to ask people to make a lifestyle change - so that'll be painful no matter what.
Ultimately I do agree that fossil fuels aren't going away in the next few years. However, we could see drastic drops in new fossil fuel plants and the expedited retirement of many existing plants over the next two decades if we had an Apollo Program for green energy. Or if we go into a war mentality (a real one, not this "keep spending and acting like nothing is going on" war mentality that Dubya is pushing). So rather than accept the given 30% increase in demand and need for more fossil fuel with the current technology, lets simply change the equation. That's not easy, but certainly can be done.
Firstly, yes I did post too much from Platt's. My point was to show in the month of June alone, the picture of trouble the industry is dealing with, clearly demonstrates the requirement to widen the solutions thru this transition. Yes Platt's could cite RK, I'm sorry, but they will also thank RK for the increased eyeballs and the potential of increased registrants.
And yes, the amount of new resources applied for each (fossil, renewable & EEC), should lessen in favor of EEC and renewables during this transition period, and it will. Industry is certainly on board with that. Bu this is why we have proposed cuts in C02 by 70% or 80% by 2050, and not the same % by the year 2020. True?
It has to be realized that the platform of transition we have entered, is in sync with these C02 reduction goals, which means we will have some new fossil fuel generation to replace other older more damaging fossil retirements. LNG does just that, and it as does over new dirty coal, which is less damaging over old dirty coal. But as you can see from Platt's, LNG supply and affordability is stressed. If you still agree with me, then Webb was wise to hit on this when he did, as he certainly beat McCain to it.
Secondly, and very importantly, renewables and EEC have tremendous impediments from a variety of aspects. Most can be alleviated with a more intelligent grid, but this innovation is not here yet, but when it does work, and is implemented gridwise (which will cost allot of money and take time), renewables can be maximized at a far greater extent and EEC's true impact can surface. This is certainly in sync with NAPEE's Vision 2025 for EEC of 30% and EERE's Wind vision of 20% by 2030. Again, neither vision is for the goals to be reached by 2010. Why, because there are impediments which make it impossible right now, and will only bleed away in time.
That's it. The transition to a cleaner energy future, will have to have some new fossil. When the goal-line is crossed, technology and human habit willing, less or decreased fossil usage will be the obvious reality. Industry accepts that, but you and I must accept the transition has great hurdles involving the market, financial, engineering, environmental and infrastructural. We'll get there, but it will take some fossil in order to keep our grid reliable and affordable. Without this balance, the financial ability for the market (industry and citizens both) to follow thru runs the risk of going of course.
Perhaps you or others have questions as far as what I feel the impediments are for renewables and EEC, or how a more intelligent grid will make it all possible? I don't know, but if that's where the confusion or our difference lies, I'd be happy to explain.