Tom Perriello VA-05: an Emerging Race

By: teacherken
Published On: 6/18/2008 9:55:45 PM

also posted at Daily Kos
In the latest list of Emerging Races put out by the DCCC we find the name of Tom Perriello, running in the 5th CD of Virginia against Virgil Goode, Jr.     I have written about Tom before, and I think this race has real possibility.   Increasingly, so do others, as seen in his inclusion on the list of Emerging Races.

Tom will be liveblogging on the afternoon of the 28th at FireDogLake, although I do not as yet know the exact time.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro of CT is sponsoring an event for Tom at her DC home next Monday, for which Sen. Russ Feingold is an honorary co-host.  If you think you might be able to attend that, feel free to contact the campaign.

Attached to the emailed invitation were several pages of information, some of which I will take the liberty of sharing in two snips below the fold.

Why the DCCC has put VA-05 on its list of top targeted races

Since announcing his candidacy, Tom has three times broken Democratic fundraising records for the district, raising over $600,000 this cycle, and he has received an added boost from the statewide enthusiasm over Mark Warner's decision to run for Senate. Tom is in the process of building the largest grassroots and field effort this district has ever seen, and the campaign has already logged over 1400 volunteer hours.

At the same time, Republican Rep. Virgil Goode has been moving to the far right while the fifth district and the state have been trending blue-both of the last two Democratic Governors, Warner and Kaine, won the district. Now Goode is toeing Bush's line on the Iraq War, is tied to the contractor scandal that brought down Duke Cunningham, and has drawn condemnation from around the country for his inflammatory remarks preceding Rep. Keith Ellison's swearing-in ceremony. It's time to flip the fifth!

Why the Democratic Party Thinks VA-05 is Winnable

For the first time in over a decade, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has moved Virginia's Fifth District from "safe Republican" to "in play" and, more recently, to its list of top targeted races.

1. Virginia and the Fifth District are trending blue
G求 The last two Democratic governors, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, won the district. Warner won by 6.2% and Kaine by 1.2%.
G求 In the Feb. 12 presidential primary, Sen. Clinton received more votes than either Huckabee or McCain, and Sen. Obama received more votes (52,387) than all of the Republicans combined (44,256).
G求 Mark Warner, the most popular political figure in modern Virginia history, will be on the ballot in November, and Virginia looks likely to be in play for the presidential race.

2. Rep. Virgil Goode is out of step with this swing district
G求 Rep. Virgil Goode made his name as a populist democrat in the State Senate and then as an independent in the US Congress, but since 2002 he has become one of the most reactionary members in DC. He voted with President Bush 86% of the time while representing a district where President Bush's approval rating has dipped below 40%.
G求 In the past few years, Goode has lined up with unpopular positions on privatizing Social Security, prescription drugs, credit card debt, the minimum wage, health insurance to poor children, and a national sales tax.
G求 Goode is tied to the MZM contractor scandal that brought down Rep. Duke Cunningham.
G求 Goode has provoked national condemnation for his xenophobic remarks preceding Rep. Keith Ellison's swearing-in as the first Muslim in Congress. This has turned off many "Mark Warner Republicans" around the district, including influential business leaders.  

3. Perriello has broken major fundraising records for VA-05
G求 Perriello raised over $600,000 in seven months, breaking multiple district fundraising records and resulting in the DCCC's placing the race on its list of targeted races.
G求 Perriello outraised Goode 3 to 1 in the 4th quarter, and his net fundraising in just four months tripled Goode's net for all of 2007.  
G求 The campaign's cash on hand at the end of the first quarter in 2008 surpassed the 2006 challenger's entire election cycle budget.

4. Perriello is already converting evangelicals, veterans and business leaders
G求 At the campaign's largest fundraiser, two-thirds of donors were former Goode supporters.
G求 Perriello has worked nationally to help the Democrats win back evangelical, Catholic and other values voters, and has been blazing a trail on that in VA-05.
G求 The former head of the Charlottesville Chamber of Commerce is supporting Perriello and organizing other Republican business leaders to join the campaign.

5. The Perriello Campaign is a race to watch
G求 The influential Capitol Hill paper Roll Call has highlighted the VA-05 campaign, calling it a "race to watch"
G求 Perriello has received positive coverage in all the major district papers, including multiple front-page articles in the Daily Progress (Charlottesville), Farmville Herald, Danville Register and Bee, Roanoke Times, and the Martinsville Bulletin.  
G求 Virgil Goode has been quoted in the local papers saying this race will be the toughest he has faced since he was first elected twelve years ago.

Remember, Tom is one of the original signers of Darcy Burner's Sensible Plan for Iraq.  He already has several offices opened in the Southside part of the 5th District (which covers an area as large as the state of New Jersey).  With Mark Warner and Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, this is a race with real potential.

FWIW:
1) I have no official position with the Perriello campaign
2) I will be contributing money to his campaign, offering assistance through blogging and possibly volunteering and/or advising
3) I have encouraged Tom to find time to blog here as well as at FireDogLake

There- I have disclosed my relationship.  Now let's give Tom a boost.

Peace.

Comments



Impressive candidate (AnonymousIsAWoman - 6/18/2008 10:10:48 PM)
I finally got to meet Tom Perriello at the state convention this weekend.  I also listened to his speech.  I wasn't the only one impressed by him.  One of my friends, a photographer with a keen eye, said that when he spoke, she saw his sincerity, intelligence and passion.  And she is not somebody easily impressed by politicians, having been around so many of them.


Where are the polls? (Jack Landers - 6/19/2008 9:59:54 AM)
Great candidate, incredibly professional campaign, exceptional fund raising. Tom would make an excellent Congressman. However, there's a dog that's not barking here. Where are the polls? The campaign has enough cash that they must have been conducting polls. Yet I don't recall seeing any figures released, which suggests that maybe things aren't looking so hot.

Anybody seen a poll on this race in the last few months? I want to know where we're really at with this thing before I go getting myself all excited.

If I see a poll showing that we stand at better than 43% then I think we've got a real fighting chance. Especially with the coattails of Obama and Mark Warner and the unusually high Democratic turnout that can be expected this autumn.  



I'm not sure it's quite a dog that didn't bark (aznew - 6/19/2008 10:35:05 AM)
I have no idea whether the campaign has conducted any polling up to this point or not, but I don't think you can infer from the lack of released figures, if that indeed is what you are doing, that Perriello has in fact conducted a poll and is simply not providing the information because it would be negative to him.

At this point, anyway, what would a poll measure except for name recognition? Most voters are not paying attention to these down-ticket races.



as far as I know, they have not yet polled (teacherken - 6/19/2008 1:58:12 PM)
in part because, as the other responder to your comment noted, at this point it would largely be a question of name recognition.

Perriello has put staff in place across the district, but is only now starting to advertise.  When and if I get any polling data you can be sure I will offer it.

But a caution -  in a race like this the polling is often dicey - for Perriello to win he will need to rely on a lot of first-time and occasional voters, the kind who are likely to be screened out of any pool focused on likely voters.