11th District Reality Check

By: James Martin
Published On: 6/13/2008 12:48:13 PM

I've heard from alot of people lately that they think the blogs (and RK specifically) wont be helping out Gerry Connolly in November... and I've told all the naysayers that they're wrong for a number of reasons:

1) Gerry Connolly IS a Democrat and a damn good one at that. His positions on every single issue are the exact same as Leslie Byrne's (need proof- check out his victory speech, easily the most progressive platform for a general election campaign in a swing district I've ever seen).

2) Gerry Connolly won the 11th District Primary because the vast majority of 11th District Democrats wanted him to be their nominee. I'm sorry guys- but to assume that Republicans made Gerry's margin is absurd considering turnout was only marginally higher than it was in the '06 Congressional primary.

2008 (Congressional)- 24,575
2006 (Congressional)- 21,174

3) Gerry is running against a self-funding millionaire who is backed up by the Tom Davis machine... a formidable operation to say the least. I sincerely believe Gerry will win, but he's gonna need every ounce of help anyone and everyone can give him.

4) Leslie Byrne has pledged to do everything in her power to get Gerry Connolly elected and asked the same of all of her supporters. I realize this blog was very important to Byrne's success as a candidate, so lets apply that same effort to electing Gerry Connolly.

Not putting in 100% effort to the most competitive house district in the country does nothing to further the progressive cause and I'm certain that even the most diehard Byrne/Denneny/Alexander supporters realize that. Should Hillary Clinton's supporters not knock on doors after their preferred candidate lose because they assume Barack Obama will win in November? (Just like Gerry, Obama is a favorite going into November...).

Gerry Connolly IS a progressive candidate, just maybe not the exact progressive candidate most bloggers on RK would have liked. I certainly hope that RK will be doing everything in its power to make sure his progressive voice replaces right-winger Tom Davis in Congress.  


Comments



You know (Just Saying - 6/13/2008 1:08:31 PM)
it might be helpful if Gerry took the time to reach out. One of the reasons Leslie was so loved in the netroots wasn't just because she was a progressive, it's also because she took the time to participate and reach out.

He could post a diary asking for support. He could reach out to Lowell (and others) to set up a live blog. There are lots of things that might help push the netroots to fall naturally in line with him in the fall.

I'm assuming you can get the ear of his campaign? Perhaps, then, you could provide some council in this regard.

One of the things, to be blunt, that often hurts Gerry is his perceived hubris. This might be the time to put an end to that perception-- regardless of whether he beat the "netroots candidate" or not.

If he wants the support of the netroots, he ought to ask for it and he ought to do what it takes to earn that support.



Also, I'd point out... (Lowell - 6/13/2008 1:22:24 PM)
...if, as one of Connolly's prominent supporters was saying on primary night, the netroots "lost the election for Leslie Byrne," then why on earth would the Connolly people WANT our support?!?  I mean, hell, by that reasoning our opposition would help him more than our support. Ha.


While I think it's silly to believe (Red Sox - 6/13/2008 1:41:46 PM)
that the netroots alone "lost the election for Leslie Byrne," I would guess that remark was aimed mostly at Ben and his tedious "Gerry Sucks" series. I doubt that most primary voters were even privy to it, but it was a huge turnoff for many who were aware of it.


Let's be clear (Just Saying - 6/13/2008 2:00:00 PM)
The "netroots" argument is pure bullshit.

Ben Tribbet did not lose a significant number of votes for Leslie Byrne-- not even close.

I'm willing to believe there may be as many as 100 voters/blog readers who chose to vote for or against Leslie based on what ben had to say. But Leslie lost by 5000 votes, this had nothing to do with the blogosphere.

It also, by the way, had nothing to do with renegade SAIC voters who were protecting defense contractors.

There are a 100 or more reasons this race turned out the way it did, but if you want to speculate at least do it about things that had the ability to sway a whole lot more voters.



I don't think any of (Red Sox - 6/13/2008 2:07:36 PM)
Leslie's supporters did anything to swing the election toward Gerry. Rather, I just think the remarks of those who did feel that way (or just wanted to say so) were aiming their fire at Ben Tribbett, not Raising Kaine.

In a low turnout primary election, you're not exactly getting a bunch of people who make their decisions based on blog supporters, so I agree that there was little, if any, actual effect.



What about 2006? (Lowell - 6/13/2008 2:10:14 PM)
A lot of people, including Steve Jarding and Jim Webb, believe that the blogs played a crucial role in helping Webb win his primary in June 2006. The turnout was about as low then as it was this year, but blog traffic was a lot lower.


I think that was different (Red Sox - 6/13/2008 2:20:50 PM)
The blogs helped people learn about Jim Webb, and because of that, attracted a lot of people to him. And then his new and original supporters helped drive turnout on primary day. What I don't think happened is that this voter or that voter decided that "Lowell Feld says Jim Webb is a great guy, so I'm voting for him." Rather, they probably thought something along the lines of, "That article I read on Raising Kaine taught me a lot about Jim Webb's plan for Iraq, etc. I'm convinced."

To that end, I don't think very many people decided that because some of Leslie's netroots supporters were over the top, they in turn were going to the Connolly camp. No matter how tiresome I found the NLS material on Connolly to be, if I thought Byrne was a better candidate, I would have supported her.



Every situation's different, of course (Lowell - 6/13/2008 2:32:56 PM)
My argument is that the netroots is a rising force, one that perhaps isn't powerful enough (yet? ever?) to win an election on its own, but certainly powerful enough to help raise $30 million a month for Barack Obama (and to help Obama win Virginia by the margin he did), to Draft James Webb and help elect him in 2006, to raise tens of thousands of dollars for General Assembly candidates last year, etc., etc.


But we don't win 'em all (Lowell - 6/13/2008 2:33:24 PM)
The 11th CD primary being a case in point.


I don't disagree with any of that (Red Sox - 6/13/2008 2:34:06 PM)
I was just reiterating that few, if any, primary voters made their selections based on anger toward bloggers.


As far as I'm concerned.... (Lowell - 6/13/2008 3:08:06 PM)
..the biggest disservice done to voters in this race was by the corporate media. They barely covered these important races, and to the extent they did, it was either biased or horse race crap.  Lame.


Spot on (Red Sox - 6/13/2008 2:05:19 PM)
In 2004, after garnering an unimpressive 58.5% of the Democratic primary vote, Jim Moran opted to do the following:

1) Refused to take Rosenberg's concession call.
2) Called Rosenberg voters "alleged Democrats".
3) Characterized his opponent as "somebody running against [him] who shouldn't have been running".
4) Introduced a resolution condemning Rosenberg at the next 8th district meeting for passing out the Fairfax Journal's endorsement of his candidacy at polling places.

This is the exact opposite of what Gerry should do. I don't know if he bears any ill will toward Leslie's supporters, but he needs them a lot more then they need him, and he should get them on board ASAP.



If true... (Lowell - 6/13/2008 2:08:52 PM)
...that's really unfortunate.  I had not heard that before.


Myths, myths, and more myths (Scott Surovell - 6/13/2008 3:58:02 PM)
1 - I have no clue about this, but this would surprise me.  Moran encouraged the Falls Church Democratic Committee to give Matt Famigletti a standing ovation last week.

2 - There was crossover in that primary.  I've done the analysis (at least in Fairfax) because it was curious.  That is what Moran was probably referring to in his comment.  

4 - A resolution was introduced at an 8th Congressional District Meeting because someone (assumedly the Rosenberg Campaign) published a leaflet without any authority line as required by State and Federal Law ("Paid for and Authorized by ___").  

Jim Moran did not introduce anything, and it was not a complain about "passing out the Fairfax Journal's endorsement" it was a complain about publishing possibly illegal material.

I was at the meeting.  Get your facts straight.



Thanks for clearing that up, Scott. (Lowell - 6/13/2008 4:02:10 PM)
n/t


I realize this is a week later (Red Sox - 6/19/2008 1:07:56 PM)
but I haven't had time to check RK since then.

1 - I spoke with Rosenberg two days after the primary and he informed me that Moran refused both calls he made to concede. That he urged a cheer for Famiglietti is absurdly irrelevant. Famiglietti was virtually invisible, while Rosenberg outraised every other Democratic primary challenger in the country and was far more aggressive in attacking Moran's numerous failings.

2 - Moran has been around the block enough times to know that you don't get over 40% of the primary vote without a majority of your supporters being members of the party.

4 - Whether Moran or one of his lackeys introduced the bill is immaterial. To pretend it was about the authorization line would require there to be a history of condemnation of Democratic primary candidates.



Sometimes, the time has come to go... (Elaine in Roanoke - 6/13/2008 8:52:06 PM)
No one wanted Leslie Byrne to win more than my husband and me. We donated a little of that "seed money" when Leslie first announced for the 11th nomination, even though we are in the 6th.

Leslie gave it her best. She lost. I know that Leslie and Larry have few regrets about their efforts, and I don't either. They have served Virginia well.

Gerry Connolly ran recently for re-election. He won that election in a big way. In her last election Leslie lost a close contest for Lt. governor. That played a part in the results last Tuesday.

So...Ben did not help with his tirades. Emily's List did not help with their mailing. Ultimately, Gerry prevailed.

But...In the last analysis, Leslie lost because the few voters who went to the polls wanted Gerry Connolly to be the Democratic nominee. That's politics. There aren't prizes for second place.

To Leslie, I say, "You always gave it your best, friend. Well done once more. We wish you could have won, but you are first and foremost a proud Democrat. That's why you will do all you can to elect Gerry Connolly.

If Sen. - soon to be President - Barack Obama is astute, there will be a job waiting for you in the administration which will have a tremendous job to do cleaning up the "Augean stables" left by the Bush debacle.