Turns Out Turnout Not That Bad

By: Eric
Published On: 6/11/2008 3:43:08 PM

With all the supposed voter fatigue, negative campaigning driving voters away, general campaigning overload, and even bad weather, the talk was that we were in for a low turnout.  And that appeared to be the case yesterday as we all discussed horrible turnout numbers.

Well, it doesn't look so bad now.  In fact, the 11th, which was host to the worst of it, actually increased turnout relative to other recent primaries.

2008
11th District: 5.5%
10th District: 1.9%

2007 **
Fairfax County: 4.2%
Prince William County: 1.6%

2006
11th District: 4.9%
10th District: 3.2%

2005
11th District: 3.2%
10th District: 1.4%

** I didn't have the CD breakout readily available, so these are rough estimates based on County.  [UPDATE: actually, PWC isn't a great estimate, but it's what was available.  Take the 2007 numbers with a grain or three of salt.]

By itself this doesn't tell the whole story of how the negative and saturation campaigning effected the outcome, but it certainly should silence all those who complained that this brutal primary would drive voters away.  If anything, this says just the opposite.

Sources: https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg...
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg...
http://www2.sbe.virginia.gov/w...
http://www2.sbe.virginia.gov/w...


Comments



Anyway you cut it (Alter of Freedom - 6/11/2008 5:56:52 PM)
the turnout for these Primaries and Firehouse Primaries is always abyssmal. It is a sad commentary on the way life is gotten and makes you realize that these Tuesday elections are dated.
We now should be pressing for Saturday elections or at least have the elections fall on teacher workdays and make Super Tuesdays national holidays. I mean if we are gonna honor our heroes with holidays, how about honoring our freedom to vote and make that day a national holiday...I mean like veryone not just State/Federal...talk about doing it French. I know probably a long shot but maybe we could dispell the myth that the Parties actually like low turnout. Okay maybe they do?
Fairfax for example has about 625K eligible voters as of 2006 and in that cycle some 55% voted. Some 150K voted in the 08 Democrat Primary. Anyway we cut it 5% is aweful. I know historically it may be fine but it still saddens me. We got our supervisor races here up to 30% but that was only because it was a Fall cycle I think. Here in the burbs of Richmond we pride ourselves on 60% turnout but have been seeing it dip lately and especially in those Spring primaries and firehouse primaries.
Not sure what the answer is other than making voting for a tradition like a holiday reinforced with some national pride. It really should be like the 4th in my book. The right to vote in free elections is sacred stuff.


Call me a cynic... (Tom Joad (Kevin) - 6/11/2008 7:44:35 PM)
In 2006, we had Ken Longmyer and Andy Hurst in a Democratic primary and it garnered 4.9% of the vote. In 2008, the County Chairman of Fairfax County and a former Congresswoman/State Senator and two other candidates only came out with 5.5%? I know the voter rolls have probably grown so this is actually a bigger increase when compared to 2006.

In the end, it's still pathetic. I know the word "caucus" is verbotten (sp?) around these parts but if the people aren't going to decide this, let's save some tax payer money. Have the party wonks decide this because quite honestly that's who came out to vote yesterday. Either that or we can do something logical and move the primary date with the Presidential Primary date when people actually give a damn!  



Puhleeeeez (Lee Diamond - 6/11/2008 7:59:41 PM)
I agree with Tom Joad.  The turnout was disgraceful.  This is particularly true of the 11th, where the ultimate, textbook DINO won the nomination.

The primary in the 11th was a lot more important than the general election.  People had a real choice and somehow the candidate who is more interested in representing people did not get enough people to the polls.  Despite being dislike, the winner's visibility trumped all.

While the result in the 11th is disturbing, there is a need for higher turnout across the board.  Part of the answer lies in more compact Congressiional Districts that reflect communities of interest rather than the needs of the mediocre politicians drawing districts to serve selfish political interests.

Godspeed to everyone who is working to build a stronger local Party in Fairfax.  Hopefully, that is going to result in higher primary turnouts so that there are spirited campaigns and public servants representing NOVA in Congress.



I agree with your post, Lee (Hiker Joe - 6/11/2008 9:43:12 PM)
As usual, you're right on the money.

I'm still exhausted from the heat and humidity of yesterday, but I'm proud that I worked for Leslie.  She is a class act and I'm not sure I will see another like her in my lifetime.



3%, 4%, 5%.... (Lowell - 6/11/2008 8:40:41 PM)
...it's awful no matter how you look at it.  


Guess I need to clarify (Eric - 6/11/2008 9:13:12 PM)
My main point was the last paragraph - perhaps my title was misleading.  The real point is that turnout actually increased relative to the past few years - meaning that all the talk about how the negative campaigning would discourage turnout is not as accurate as some would like to believe.  While it's not conclusive, it is a solid indicator that this ugly campaign did not chase people away.  More came out this time than in recent nicer races.

I do agree with all of you - that 5% turnout, as an absolute, is horrible.



Don't agree... (Tom Joad (Kevin) - 6/11/2008 10:30:26 PM)
Turnout might have increased because of higher name recognition of the candidates involved and it could have been more if not for the negative campaigning...we'll never know.


True... we won't know for certain. (Eric - 6/11/2008 11:01:02 PM)
That's why I said it's not conclusive.  

I think that given the trends of the past couple primaries and this result, there is a decent chance the negative campaigning did not have a significant effect.