That headline is for the benefit of all those sore winners out there. Now that your blood is really boiling, I'll explain.
The headline is almost accurate and not what it appears. Actually, it should read "I'm Not Going to Help Gerry Much". But it's not out of spite or a vindictive temper tantrum because Leslie didn't win.
Last night Gerry Connolly became Congressman-elect Connolly. No, I'm not going to wait until 7:01 pm on Nov 4th to make that call. Unless Gerry pulls his own macaca moment, he is going to win and I'm calling it that way right now. We've been saying for weeks/months that whoever wins the Democratic primary would win the 11th seat. That wasn't just happy talk to counter the "Leslie can't win" crowd - I truly believe it. Gerry won yesterday and he will win in November. The only thing the next 4 months of campaigning will do is determine Connolly's margin of victory.
That said, I'm lumping Connolly in with Moran, Boucher, and Scott - all certain winners barring major catastrophes. Meaning they don't need any help beyond what their campaigns are doing already.
On the other hand, candidates such as Judy Feder, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, Sam Rasoul, Anita Hartke, Keith Hummel, and Andrea Miller are fighting uphill battles and will need as much support as they can get. We can't win 'em all, but with four in the bag already, if we can pull off just two upsets with this group, we'll have more Democratic House members from Virginia than Republican. And that would be a major accomplishment and a huge step in the direction of turning our country around after 8 years of the worst administration in our nation's history.
Plus we have that little thing about electing Obama. There is a realistic chance that he can win Virginia, and all of us have got do everything we can to help make that happen.
So rather than take time on sure things we should be focusing on those that need help the most - and that is why I won't be doing much to help Gerry.
Where's Virgil Goode!? Let me at 'em!
Every ID that we make in Fairfax County - particularly in Delegate seats which are in play next year - increases our chances of taking back the HOD next year. Many of those precincts are in the 11th (Albo, Hugo and a little Rust (mostly 10th)).
If we take back the HOD and keep the Governor's mansion, we can redraw the lines to have at 6-7 truly competitive Congressional seats like we did before 2000.
Right now we're shooting from mid-court in many of these congressional seats. If we get the HOD, we're shooting from the foul line or shooting three-pointers at worst.
The bottom line - if you care about winning Virginia and/or congressional seats - work to build the party and the databases in Fairfax & Prince William this year.
Your points are well taken, so in addition to helping specific races this year, I agree we should be helping to build the party, improve the information we have, and sell the product. This is, of course, an ongoing effort and I'll be happy to help with these at any time.
I do stick by my main point, though, that when looking at candidates who need help, Moran, Boucher, Scott, and now Connolly aren't on my list. They'll do just fine this year.
Think of this if you had a 55/45 ration in a particular district historically it would be a boon for quality representation as the incumbant would listen more and fight harder and be under more strutiny the entire time in Congress. The margin of 10% could be overcome with strong candidates and campaigning.
Instead we are left with places like the 7th rig for Republicans and Bobby Scott's (earmark king of Virginia on the Democrat side) with no opposition ever because his district map is the most ridiculous in Virginia followed by Cantors in the 7th.
In the end its about the Parties and not the People.
When the census 2010 comes out, an independent commiission much like school boundaries on the local level should be selected to draw the map of Congressional districts and if people cannnot support that then the have telegraphed their true motives.
Seriously, you do make a good point that we need to push to elect all these good Dems and especially help out where there are weaker challenges to existing GOP incumbants, like in the 10th. I'm sure Gerry's campaign will welcome any "support" from you and your friends that can be mustered in the weeks ahead. But please DO get out and support any Dem candidate that you can get excited about.
However, it might be a good time to take a breath and examine the kind of personal attack campaign you and Ben (NLS) waged against Gerry Connolly and whether that really has a place in Democratic primary politics. Frankly this pattern of trying to destroy the personal and professional reputations of those you disagree with smacks of Karl Rove and the Republican playbook of the last 10-15 years. You cheered Ben on as he did the dirty work for Leslie and by her silence about his anti-Gerry posts, she in effect did the same. Though it will never come, I think you and Ben owe Gerry and his family a personal apology for your behavior. Yeah right.
I agree, Gerry Connolly will win this seat in November based on the real issues of this campaign and his positive record of achievement in Fairfax governement. But not by adopting the slash and burn tactics of much of the netroots world. You and your friends might want to consider that when you offer your "help" to these other struggling candidates this summer.
However, and I've said this before, I don't think the strategy employed by Ben and somewhat from the campaign and its supportive PACs was entirely helpful. As a former employee of SAIC, the attack on Gerry for being an employee there I found rather perplexing and unfair. SAIC may be profitting from a few mismanaged war contracts, but the vast majority of their work is likely being run competently and fairly to the taxpayer and the government--likely. There is of course a more fundamental disagreement out there over whether wars and their resultant support work should be outsourced to contractors at all, but that is the way we're working now. It has its problems--so does all government-run work. Regardless of people's feelings about that, that attack on Gerry, I felt, was way overblown, and I think that's a big reason why he won. I think there was a backlash.
I think that had Ben concentrated more on who Leslie really is, on her record of accomplishment, openness and LISTENING to people, he could have helped her MUCH farther along than what he did.
Think back to the Webb campaign--much of why Webb was successful was that there was much to tout about him. Positive campaigning. And of course Allen shooting himself in the foot with Macaca-gate didn't hurt. But mainly the netroots were pro-Webb from the get-go.
I think we will be watching Gerry in Congress very closely, however, to make sure that he lives up to his progressive, pro-justice, pro-environment & conservation, pro-equality, and pro-accountability message. We are counting on him to live up to it.
And I'll say openly that I'm disappointed that Gerry won. He was not my first choice but he won. Anyone who cares/follows politics at all is familiar with the old "you win some, you lose some". That's a fact and this time I lost. Disappointed? Yes. Spin? Not necessary - it is what it is. Time to move on.
At this point, when everyone is still very sensitive to the situation, I do not think it's a good idea to get back into the ugly details of this battle. Let's just say that both sides had their not-so-nice moments. But your point, about self evaluation, is always a good idea after every election. There are lessons to be learned by all.
As for apologies, I'd be happy to apologize to Gerry for whatever slights he feels I have done to him, if he publicly apologizes for pushing the false "Charlie Hall is a Republican" message last year. This is a two way street ya know. But as you say "Yeah right".
Anyway, I hope we can all work together to get as many Democrats elected as possible this year.
Sometimes, when looking for a partisan victory we can all put on our blinders and ignore the flaws of our own candidates. With a position like that it is clear that Tim Kaine was never fit to hold public office.
.....
If he's going to be that involved in an execution, I'm surprised he doesn't just drive down there and personally kill these people.
We need to make sure that we direct grassroots resources where they most need to go--true. But let's not overlook anything either.
I certainly plan to spend considerable volunteer energy this year in the 10th myself, since the 8th & 11th are stronger races for us, and Mark Warner is almost assuredly our next Senator.
However, the "electing Obama" part worries me. We still have a lot of unification and reaching out to Clinton supporters that needs to happen, and we should all be thinking of AT LEAST one person per day to call and talk to about that. I've been trying this---it's not easy. But also, we DO have some normally Democratic voting people who are saying they're voting for McCain. I had one at my polling place yesterday. We have a lot of work to do to change their minds, but more importantly, we have a LOT of work to do in Democratic STRONGHOLDs like my precinct in the 8th to REGISTER new voters, ENGAGE inactive voters, and GOTV like hell in the fall. Obama needs to perform at Kaine-like OR BETTER levels to win Virginia, in my opinion. We need high, very high Dem turnout in our strong areas, and we need to register and engage new people elsewhere around the state, particularly African-American and Hispanic voters. But we've got to make sure to reach out to older blue-collar voters as well who seem to be the ones who are not so enthused about Obama.
So, yes I agree with your premise about the 11th, but there's still a lot of work that needs to be done in districts like the 8th & 11th.
Plus, I am really excited about our chances in the 10th, 5th, and 2nd Districts. We can really have some nail-biters in those districts, and if we're lucky, we may even pull one (or two!?) off!
That being said, fighting for Judy in VA-10 has a neat little side-benefit. IDing and activating Democrats in southern parts of Loudoun for Judy this year just might help us knock off Bob Marshall next year.
And isn't THAT worth the drive from Fairfax?
In all seriousness, though, Loudoun's Republicans have woken up and smelled the defeat after 2007, and are reactivating. We will need what help is available to retain our success and maintain our momentum. I want Judy to be the "surprise win" of 2008, and I know we can make it happen.
Incidentally, how awesome is it that each of our Congressional candidates get to make signs that say "Obama-Warner-{your name here}." What a fantastic slate!