With Barack Obama having all but sewn up the Democratic nomination for President, speculation will soon turn hot and heavy toward his VP pick. By all indications, there are at least 2 if not 3 Virginians on Obama's short list. Here they are, with a few pros and cons for each.
1. Tim Kaine
Advantages: Kaine's people have made the case to me (and to others) that Kaine is a "successful southern governor" (all three words are important), a Catholic who can speak with authority on faith, a person who grew up in the Midwest (that's a good thing politically, according to Kaine's people), fluent in Spanish (an advantage in reaching the crucial, huge bloc of Latino voters?), a strong campaigner, and someone who has a lot in common with Barack Obama ("Their mothers were born in El Dorado, Kan.; both politicians graduated from Harvard Law School; and both practiced civil rights law."). Finally, I've been told that Kaine's personal history is impeccable, that his "vetting" process will be a breeze, that the worst thing he's probably ever done is gotten a speeding ticket. That's not to be underestimated in this day and age.
Disadvantages: Doesn't bring any military, national security or foreign policy credentials to the ticket. How "successful" a governor Kaine's been is highly debatable. To date, transportation remains stalemated after the 2007 transportation plan was thrown out by the courts (regional authorities) and/or the voters (abusive driver fees). Also, Kaine's pre-K education initiative has not gotten far, while the Commonwealth faces a $1+ billion budget deficit. And, of course, there have been controversies over issues like the Wise County coal-fired plant, the abuser fees, Dominion reregulation, and the Metro to Dulles no-bid Bechtel deal. But the bottom line question is this, for those who argue that Kaine's been a "successful" governor: what are his main successes, aside from being well liked (also, his response to the Virginia Tech shootings was superb)? Got me.
2. Mark Warner
Advantages: Now THIS is an example of a "successful southern governor!" Warner's record and popularity are unsurpassed, after the tremendous leadership and record of accomplishment he demonstrated as governor. In addition, Mark Warner is the most popular politician in Virginia, including in all parts of the state and among both liberals and moderates (and even a few conservatives). Not bad at all. Finally, Warner has experience on the national stage, having run for president for a while and gotten a taste for what life is like at that level.
Disadvantages: Like Kaine, Warner doesn't really bring any particular national security, military or foreign policy credentials to the ticket. Also, Warner is in the midst of running for U.S. Senate; if he gave that up to run for VP, who would Democrats pick to replace him? Come to think of it, that might turn out to be an advantage if Brian Moran or Creigh Deeds were the replacement nominee, heading off a potentially bruising primary between those two men for the 2009 gubernatorial nomination. Hmmmm.
3. Jim Webb
Advantages: Would bring tremendous national security, military and foreign policy credentials to the ticket. Good luck "Swift Boating" Jim Webb! Would potentially rattle John McCain and get under his skin. Potential appeal to working class voters, national security voters, Appalachian voters, and "Reagan Democrats." Would inject a strong dose of much needed "Jacksonian Democracy" (e.g., "the health of a society should be measured not at its apex but at its base") onto the ticket. Finally, it was Jim Webb himself who said, "The greatest realignment in modern politics would take place rather quickly if the right national leader found a way to bring the Scots-Irish and African Americans to the same table." Barack Obama and Jim Webb? African Americans and Scots-Irish? Sounds like just the ticket to us! If you agree, please sign the petition. Thanks.
Disadvantages: We MIGHT "lose" the U.S. Senate seat; fortunately, we have a Democratic governor who would select Webb's interim successor until the next general election in November 2009. Also, Webb is not known to be a big fan of campaigning, but having observed him closely during and after the 2006 campaign, I would argue that he's gotten a lot better at it, a lot more comfortable at it. Another disadvantage is that Webb could be attacked for his past statements on women in the military, although my guess is that John McCain held the exact same views back in the 1960s and 1970s as Jim Webb -- and most military men -- held. Webb could counter by pointing out that as Navy Secretary, he opened up more billets to women than any other Navy Secretary before or after. Finally, there's the question of temperament, whether Webb would be happy as VP. Personally, I think that Webb WOULD be happy as VP if he's given significant responsibilities and acts as a top advisor to President Obama. If it's just the old "warm bucket of spit," forget it, I'd recommend that Webb stay in the U.S. Senate.
3rd advantage of the Jim Webb section
Obama is nuts if he doesn't choose Webb. It just fits too darn well.
(I will say were that scenario to come to pass, it probably helps both democratic candidates and builds on each of their strengths in the state, IMHO, in addition to avoiding a primary).
And by the way I remember speaking to people about Warner who I have always tended to like when he threw his hat into the ring for President and what people who did not know him were critical of was his rather his record tax increase. Whatever the reasons behind, outsiders do not care too much about the intra-state politics but he did raise taxes greater than any other Governor in the South during that time. I even recall Huckabee making a small reference to that fact back in 07 when he was touting his own record.
We may not like it, but what I am finding it is actually Kaine who is bridging some of the gaps along the politcial spectrum. The base may not be happy about it but it was not really until Kaine's folks rumored he may have to raise taxes that he started to get a little friction from alot of the moderates and conservatives (yeah-the red kind).In fact on his weekly radio cast it was always fellow Dems that seemed to be the callers with the complaints, especially over the Wise County plant.
Its a hard comparison, Warner had a pretty good way with people but Kaine seems at least in my area to be as respected as Warner was but maybe of course maybe the same individuals. Much of Kaines troubles may in some circles be directly attributed to Warner by the way and the previous administration.
I wonder who has had the better working relationship with the GA though--behind the scenes anyway.
Part of my view in all honesty though is I have met Kaine a few times over the years in Richmond and always leave with a very good impression of him and I never was afforded that opportunity with Warner.
Because of your military background, you've been mentioned frequently as a possible running mate for Barack Obama. I've never had a conversation with Barack about any of this, so it's really out of line to speculate.What do you think of Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, who has also been mentioned as a possible vice-presidential candidate? I don't know him personally, but he's well regarded. He has time in the House, and he's in an important state.
What about Gen. Colin Powell, who, like yourself, has a distinguished military record? Personally, I don't think anyone who's running for president would realistically choose someone who's never held elected office.
And Gen. Wesley Clark, a former Democratic presidential candidate? This isn't personally anything negative, but again it's a real risk to bring somebody in who hasn't held office. Other than Eisenhower, the great military leader in that incredible World War II experience, you're going to want someone on your ticket who's demonstrated he can get votes.
I've never had a conversation with Barack about any of this, so it's really out of line to speculate.
Webb's wrong about Gen. Wesley Clark when he says
it's a real risk to bring somebody in who hasn't held officeHis background would bring real credibility to the ticket
Webb's wrong again when he says
you're going to want someone on your ticket who's demonstrated he can get votes. This is especially wrong from someone who only recently ran for Senate without any prior elected experience. Wes Clark has been working to help Democrats get elected all across this nation for years. Just from the people he's helped, vets and our military he'll get plenty of votes and he would help carry Virginia for Democrats.
I happen to disagree with him when talking specifically about General Clark, his particular kind of experience is remarkable, and very similar to Eisenhower in the executive and diplomatic nature of the role. Also, Clark has been politically active and did a huge amount of work in 2006 to get Democrats elected.
Webb's point is valid, and I think Clark is still very viable.
1) Obama picks Warner as VP
2) Kaine takes Warner's place in the Senate race, and it becomes into Kaine v. Gilmore Senate race? Moran or Deeds could also make the jump. Having Obama/Warner would make it a GREAT cycle for Democrats all over Virginia, and you'd have to assume that Kaine, Moran, or Deeds could ride those coattails to beat Jim Gilmore.
Thoughts?
Jim Webb giving up his Senate seat after being elected VP seems less risky because Kaine can appoint anyone he wants, including himself I think, to replace Webb as U.S. Senator. That buys us time until the next general election to settle on a candidate and build a campaign team and adequate funding. I'm not sure if "the next (statewide)general election" means Nov. 2009 gubernatorial general election or the next Federal election in 2010. So far as I know Kaine wouldn't serve out the last 4 years of Jim's 6-year term. But either way the nominee decision-making process could begin shorty after the 2008 general election. That also buys time for the republicans to get their circular firing squad up and running (not kidding here).
Looking ahead to that possibility I'd be very much inclined to go for Rick Boucher, Fighting Ninth CD. By the time the Nov. 2008elections are over I think we'd have a larger House majority so even if a republican were to win Rick's seat we'd still have a larger majority than we have today.
T.C.
You cannot assume Federal office until you resign from state office, and once you've resigned from state office, you lose the power to appoint yourself.
Wendell R. Anderson - defeated
Donald S. Russell - defeated
J. Howard Edmondson - defeated
Edwin Mechem - defeated
John J. Hickey - defeated