Update from the RPV Convention [UPDATE: Gilmore wins 50.2%-49.7%]

By: James Martin
Published On: 5/31/2008 10:45:33 AM

Convention just reconvened and a couple things caught my eye:

1) LOW TURNOUT: The convention is in the same space as the 2007 DPVA JJ, yet they are using maybe 50-60% of the same space!

2) MARSHALL DOING BETTER THAN EXPECTED: Bob Marshall seems to have turned out his supporters... Maybe 50-55% of the delegates are wearing Bob Marshall for Senate stickers. (but remember delegates votes are weighted... so sheer number of delegates could be meaningless)

3) RAZOR-THIN RACE FOR CHAIR: The Hager/Frederick death match continues to tighten... Neither side seems to be confident of anything other than the fact that it will be VERY CLOSE!

Stay Tuned- More BELOW THE FOLD.

Also see Jim Hoeft at Bearing Drift and The Shad Plank who are also liveblogging.

UPDATE by Lowell 1:46 pm: James just called and said that Bob Marshall spoke but didn't endorse Jim Gilmore, simply said "Beat Mark Warner."  Wow.
Low turnout in the 2nd and 7th (Gilmore's home), medium turnout from the 6th, 8th, and 11th, while high turnout from the 1st and 10th.

11:20- Nominations are now being presented. Jim Gilmore goes first... Eric Cantor nominates Gilmore and Thelma Drake seconds it. Gilmore also has "activists" coming up to say their names and second his nomination.

11:24- Jim Gilmore just got up to speak to chants of "Go Bob Go"... Unless Bob is short "Jim Gilmore"- not a good sign for Gilmore!

11:28- Jim Gilmore is now talking about "straight talk"... hmmm- well maybe he can pay my car tax that he said he would eliminate. He is again reiterating that the main reason that Virginia will vote for him is that "Mark Warner will vote with the Democrats!"   That strategy worked well for George Allen.

11:34- Marshall was just nominated to a roar coming from the entire crowd (but focused in the 1st and 10th) by a former RPV Chair.

11:37- Marshall was just called "100% pro-life" and the crowd really liked that.

11:41- Ken Cuccinelli just got up to 2nd the nomination of "my friend" Bob Marshall. Cuccinelli  is talking about how Bob Marshall "courageously" fought to take down the Republican road funding and "abuser fee" package.

11:55- Marshall just spoke to thunderous applause absolutely tearing Jim Gilmore apart as being too moderate!  In the end he was cut off because his speech went over 20 minutes.

11:56- I'm hearing it from a political insider in the 7th Congressional District (JIM GILMORE's HOME) that Bob Marshall will probably win that district. He is also very very strong in the 6th district.

11:57- VOTE COUNTING TIME!

12:53: WOW! The votes are coming in and it looks very likely it will be Marshall in a blowout. Marshall won the 10th by a 581-160!!!

MARSHALL IS WINNING THE 1st, 4th, 5th, 7th, 10th, and 11th while GILMORE IS WINNING THE the 2nd and 9th.


Comments



Damn, this is exciting stuff! (True Blue - 5/31/2008 12:13:40 PM)
Thanks for attending and reporting for us James.


GO BOB GO! (TheGreenMiles - 5/31/2008 12:55:57 PM)
How much would Warner beat Bob Marshall by? Is it possible to beat someone by more than 100%?


Bob Marshall is more of a danger than Gilmore in my book (DanG - 5/31/2008 1:13:47 PM)
We know how unpopular Gilmore is on a statewide level.  We know we'd beat him solidly. Better the devil you know rather than the devil you don't...


Numbers (Flipper - 5/31/2008 1:33:41 PM)
Here are number reported from Bearing Drift blog:

1st: 643.27-490.73 for Marshall (confirmed)
2nd: 612-345.6 for Gilmore (confirmed)
3rd: 121.83-75.16 for Gilmore (confirmed)
4th: 382.53-319.45 for Marshall (confirmed)
5th: 666.17-419.65 for Gilmore (confirmed)
6th: 530.62-507.47 for Gilmore (confirmed)
7th: passes
8th: 116-105 for Gilmore
9th: Gilmore (2-1)
10th: 5-1 for Marshall
11th: Marshall

That puts Gilmore at 2856.80 and Marshall at 2478.68.  The, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th still out.  



Gilmore wins 50.2%-49.7% (Lowell - 5/31/2008 1:40:49 PM)
Not exactly a convincing victory. Weak, weak, weak.

Also, James points out that if the Marshall supporters leave, that could help John Hager. Interesting...



Gilmore wins (Jerry Saleeby - 5/31/2008 1:41:39 PM)

1st: 643.27-490.73 for Marshall (confirmed)
2nd: 612-345.6 for Gilmore (confirmed)
3rd: 121.83-75.16 for Gilmore (confirmed)
4th: 382.53-319.45 for Marshall (confirmed)
5th: 666.17-419.65 for Gilmore (confirmed)
6th: 530.62-507.47 for Gilmore (confirmed)
7th: 1035.79-581.52 for Gilmore (confirmed)
8th: 156.96-145.04 for Gilmore (confirmed)
9th: 551.78-335.22 for Gilmore (confirmed)
10th: 584.5-160.5 for Marshall (confirmed)
11th: 1137-577 Marshall (confirmed)

Gilmore wins, 5222 to 5156.

from Bearing Drift



Looks like Gilmore may squeek through (jjbman1121 - 5/31/2008 1:42:18 PM)
CD Gilmore Marshall
1 490.73 643.27
2 612 345.6
3 121.83 75.16
4 319.45 383.53
5 666.17 419.65
6 530.62 507.47
7 1035 581.47
8 156.96 145.04
9 551.78 335.22
10 160.5 584.5
11 557 1127
Total 5202.04 5147.91 54.13

Looks like its Gilmore. Seems a little sketchy to me, with the 7th waiting until the end to deliver the razor thin margin for Gilmore.



Talk about a divided party (True Blue - 5/31/2008 1:46:59 PM)
The RPV is falling apart, it would seem.

Who did McDonnell support?  Who was Bolling behind?



Both behind Gilmore (DanG - 5/31/2008 2:06:19 PM)


Did Marshall do so well .. (Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle - 5/31/2008 4:12:55 PM)
because Gilmore was doing so bad in the polls? .. I thought Gilmore was the actual nominee ... ouch!!