I agree with Fred2Blue on this one.

One of the key differences between 2007 and 2008 so far has been the Democratic Primary, which has drawn new primary participants in record numbers, and we can assume that the vast majority of those participants are Ds or are independents leaning towards Democrats.  We have a much more solid foundation to build the vote on thanks to this contested primary--in otherwords, thanks to Barack Obama AND Hillary Clinton.

These primary wins aren't just about putting the GOP into panic mode, it's about refuting the idiotic "meme" batted about that the primary is destorying the party, when in actuality it's helping us organize in areas we wouldn't have been competitive in otherwise.  Recent results are proving it decisively.

Let Hillary run in her last few states.  Don't begrudge her for it.  It's good for the party.

Are the ones we need to win in the House of Delegates if we're going to have a chance of recapturing the House of Delegates in Virginia.

Its a commentary on the apathy that exists in the Republican districts, even the strongholds, where we see Democrats voting who have never voted before and long time Republicans voters staying home. We say this in many Virginia localities during the Primary season. Historic Republican precincts saw little turnout compared to the lines of those asking for the Democrat ballot. Its about getting the base + new voters out are it appears as though there are no new Republicans and the base folks are staying home.

The main argument against Perriello has been that he is a good man and a good candidate, but no one can beat Virgil Goode in the 5th. The evidence for this has been Goode's margins in his last three elections against Weed, twice, and Richards.

These three special elections suggest that built-in advantage may not be as strong as some think.  

There are three keys to Perriello winning this race:

1. An effective substantive argument as t why the people in the 5th District will be better off with Tom than with Virgil. CHECK

2. Enough money. GETTING THERE

3 A strong Democratic wave in November. THESE THREE SPECIAL ELECTIONS, COMBINED WITH RECNT POLLING DATA, ALL OF WHICH ARE CONSISTENT WITH COMMON SENSE OBSERVATION AND EXPERIENCE, SUGGEST THAT THIS IS OCCURRING, AT LEAST SO FAR.

That said, there are several important differences between MS-1 and VA-05, not the least of which is the fact that the Democrat, Childers, was from the rural part of the district. Tom, obviously, is from the more urban part of the Fifth, which does make getting enough of the crucial rural vote a little tougher. But as Kaine and Warner have shown, the votes are there in sufficient number for a Democrat to win in this district.

Also, having Obama and Warner on the ticket, particularly Obama, will help a candidate like Tom Perriello by bringing people to the polls (not just African Americans) more inclined to generally pull the lever for a Democrat, even if they know nothing about Perriello or Goode, IMHO.

 

I saw this in Mike Allen's Playbook on Politico this morning.

***Whispers among some House Republicans about trying to replace Cole with Rep. TOM DAVIS (R-Va.), who was NRCC chairman from 1998 to 2002.

http://www.politico.com/playbook/

I agree, the outlook for the Republicans at the Congressional level is very bleak for the 2008 cycle.  I worked for a great candidate in Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District during a Special Election in 2001/2002.  By far, a much superior candidate to John Sullivan, but in the end we lost due to a General Election level turn-out in the Broken Arrow section of the district just south of Tulsa.  We lost by 10,000 votes in that Special Election, in a solidly Republican area.  The politics of 2002 are worlds different than now.  

We need to keep in mind that turn-out in special elections are in the 15 to 25% range, so they are much smaller universes of voters than in Primaries and General Elections.  Now, is this a good indicator of things to come?  Possibly to very likely.  

So, let's look at Primary Voters.  These are people that are voting for their Candidate of choice for their prefered political party.  I have to laugh every time the Clinton Campaign tries to make the case that they are competative in rural America and thus more electable.  People who vote in Democratic Primaries in rural America lean moderate to conservative Democrats.  This assertion will not hold up in the General Election phase of the campaign.  It will evaporate like a raindrop in the Sahara.  When this whole thing began, Hilary had equal numbers of people that held a positive and negative view of her, with about a 3 to 5% range of those who were undecided or had never heard of her.  She had very little room to move or shape the image that she wants to portray because most Americans already knew her and had an opinion of her.  You either love Hilary or hate her.  There is very little in between.  If anything, she is a drag on the whole ticket.  Sorry, but there's not much way to get round that fact.  

As for Congressional District propsects in Virginia, there is reason for hope, but history is the best indicator of success.  My rankings for pick-ups, from most likely to least likely with the current candidates, are as follows:  VA 11, VA 2, VA 10, VA 5, VA 7, VA 4, VA 6, VA 1.  

The most likely pick-ups will be VA 11, 2, & 10.  It falls off fast after these.  The rest, some really amazing things would have to happen.  Just because ther was high turnout during the VA Presidential Primary doesn't mean that will translate into a VA tidalwave in all parts of the stata.  Mark Warner will win, Obama will be very competative, Northern Virginia turn-out, Hampton Roads and Richmond and how they vote will be key, but once you get past the Golden Cresent, the conventional thinking doesn't hold.  The down ballot Congressional races will get a bump, but it will be up to the individual campaigns to define the incumbants and most don't have the money or resources to do that.  The point I am trying to make, the General Election will be a very different animal than what is going on right now.  Lots of things will change betweeen now and November.  Keep it all in perspective.  

The fact is that Virgil Goode is back on his heels in this district in a way I haven't seen in my 11 years here.

Does Perriello have an uphill battle? Yes, he does, but chspkheel has been, IMHO, shorting his candidacy from the start.

Not too long ago, I vaguely recall your arguing that devoting any resources to Perriello was a waste, since he had no chance of winning, and was pulling money away from other races. Do you still think that?

The main arguments I hear in favor of Goode's candidacy these days are:

1. Goode has always won; and

2. This is a redneck-dominated district in which rednecks will only vote for rednecks.

I concede point one, except that while each special election we have seen so far had its own unique special circumstances, taken together they are a likely as not to reflect a trend a larger electorate.

As for point 2, there are two unique factors in the 2008 cycle. The first is that the incumbent GOP president is THE MOST UNPOPULAR IN THE HISOTRY OF GALLUP POLLING, WHICH STRETCHES BACK TO 1935.

The second is that Obama's candidacy is unlike any other I have seen in my lifetime, both in terms of his being an African American, the potential for change his candidacy holds and the demonstrated ability of his campaign to attract people to the political process in numbers not seen before.

So, I don't think the drop-off to the tougher races, and I admit that the 5th, et al., are the tougher races, is as great as you seem to suggest. If I am misunderstanding what you are saying, my apologies in advance.

This was no slight to Tom Perriello, but when you look at the 5th, 6th, and even the 9th (which is Democratically held, but we wonder sometimes - refering to coal votes and environmental votes), the surge will come from voters 18 to 35 years old and African Americans.  The greatest concentration of these voters is in the Golden Cresent (NOVA, Richmond, Hampton Roads) with the AA vote streatching into the 5th around central and southside VA.  These three districts have older voters that are consistent and reliable voters.  Their young voters are living in NOVA, Richmond, and Hampton Roads.  Before you say, what about the colleges and universities, remember, most of those kids will be (better be) voting absentee, and in large part will not be voting in the 5th or 6th CDs.  

If Obama can correct his inability to connect with working class voters (high schood educated and some college), then VA will be going BLUE!  For the life of me, Obama is more working class than Hillary, by a long shot!  Product of a broken home, raised by a single mom.  After her death, raised by extended family.  Despite all these challenges, was a smart kid, went on to college and did well.  Went to Harvard and got a Law Degree.  If that ain't the American Dream, then I don't know what is.  Oh, did I mention that he was a Community Organizer in the working class and low income areas of Chicago?  If you are wondering what a Community Organizer does, just try to move a marginalized person to action based on their self interest and hold those in power accountable by connecting people from similary backgrounds and circumstances and building a base of grassroots power through these types of people.  That is the basis of his "Change" message and it works.  Hilary wouldn't know anything about building political power in marginalized communities.    

Any way, back to the VA Congressionals,...  There will be a bump down ticket, but how much and where is the key.  If you saw, the 5th was listed 4th on my list.  Is it possible, sure.  But, we need to understand who will be voting in each of these Congressional Districts.  And also, as far as waisting money, the DCCC's target list is getting longer and wider everyday.  There is only so much money and resources to go around.  To give Tom his due, he has done and outstanding job raising money.  

A relatively unknown Democrat outorganizing and out-hussling a relatively unknown Republican does not equate unseating an entrenched incumbent.  Appreciate what we've won, but don't get too far ahead of yourselves.  

And by the way, picking up only one or two house seats in Virginia would be a tremendous accomplishment.

that childers and cazayoux ran as "conservative" democrats...a strategy that seems to have worked in the south.  

strongly supported a "big tent" party.

Nobody's saying that we can do this ONLY by electing Progressives (better).  We have to elect more Democrats everywhere.  That's why this is such a great result.  The big tent is getting bigger.  When Democrats show that they can represent the American people, the American people choose Democrats to represent them in Washington.

As someone who was born in Maben, MS (part of the 1st District) and had an uncle working on the campaign (for the Repubs unfortunately) I have to disagree with a previous poster's comment that this was a low turnout affair.

MS-01 Special Election:

107K turned out

MS-01 2006 Race:

135K turned out

This was a huge win that portends disaster for the GOP in the fall.  If Obama's on the ticket I think black turnout could surge and also beat Roger wicker for the Senate surge.

Thoughts?

If you have roughly around 650,000 people in a Congressional District, of which roughly 450,000 are registrered or of voting age, the the 135,000 turnout works out to be about 30% turnout for that General Election.  You had token opposition against Roger Wicker in 2006, who was a popular incumbent in a mid-term election.  Let's keep it in perspective.  No doubt, 107,000 is solid for a Special Election but come on, 23% is still low when you compare it to General Eletion turnout.  And I have worked in MS for a short time, so I know where you are talking about.  

I'm not trying to minimize the victory, but campaigns, elections, politics are all about numbers.  We won this one, and it was huge.  Let's take the win and move on.  And yes, I agree, Mississippi could be the surprise of the 2008 Cycle.  The Perfect Storm!