For once, I'm not talking about coal-fired power plants or the incredible natural resources in Appalachia like wind, natural gas, and coal which we currently exploit for electricity production.
I'm talking about the incredible electoral opportunity in Appalachia which Democrats MUST understand and act upon as we move towards the general election. It is especially prescient as we watch the West Virginia primary today. Within Appalachia lies the key to a Democratic Presidency
Appalachia is a treasure trove of 70 "swing" electoral votes. Thats as many as Texas, Florida, New Hampshire, and New Mexico combined.
But the thing about Appalachia people need to understand is that it largely represented by Democrats, and should be a Democratic bread and butter area in the Presidential election. Our candidates will ignore Appalachia at their own peril.
Part 1: Democrats CAN win in Appalachia
Democratic success in Appalachian states is enough to make any New Englander jealous. Granted, many of these elected officials are not representative of the more progressive Democratic pockets in New England and on the west coast, but many of them are.
West Virginia
Governor - Joe Manchin (Dem)
Senators - Robert Byrd (Dem), John Rockerfeller (Dem)
Congress (2/3 Dem) - Nick Rahall (Dem), Alan Mollohan (Dem)
Dems control the state House 72(D)-28(R)
Dems control the state Senate 23(D)-11(R)
The state Auditor, Treasurer, Ag Commissioner, and Attorney General are Dems.
West Virginia went for Carter twice, Dukakis, and Clinton twice.
Ohio
Governor - Ted Strickland (Dem)
Senator - Sherrod Brown (Dem)
Congress - Appalachian Ohio is represented by 2 Dems in Charlie Wilson (OH-06) and Zack Space (OH-18)
Ohio went for Clinton in 92 and 96
Virginia
Governor - Tim Kaine (Dem)
Senator - Jim Webb (Dem), soon to be joined by Mark Warner (Dem)
Congress - Appalachian Virginia is represented by Rick Boucher (Dem)
Dems just took control of the state Senate in 2006
North Carolina
Governor - Mike Easley
Senators - ew. BUT Kay Hagan (Dem) is already polling even with Liddy Dole even without high name recognition statewide.
Congress - Appalachian North Carolina is represented by Heath Shuler (as well as 2 Repubicans)
Dems just expanded our majority in the state House in 2006
Dems just expanded our majority in the state Senate in 2006
Kentucky
Governor/LG - Beshear/Mongiardo (Dem)
Attorney General - Conway (Dem)
Congress - Appalachian Kentucky is represented by a few Republicans and Ben Chandler.
Democrats control the state House 63D-36R
The state auditor and treasurer are Dems.
Kentucky went for Clinton in 92 and 96
Tennessee
Governor - Phil Bredesen
Congress (5/9) - Lincoln Davis (Dem), Bart Gordon (Dem) and Jim Cooper (Dem) are all right there in what the Appalachian Regional Commission calls "Appalachia.
Dems control the state House 53D-46R
Dems split the state Senate 16D-16R-1I
Tennessee went for Clinton in 92 and 96
I'm less familiar with PA, although I'm sure you could point to several Democratic Representatives from W PA, as well as looking at Rendell and Casey's performance there to see that Dems can win Appalachia.
Part 2: Democrats MUST win in Appalachia
Lets look at presidential success over the last 30 years based on what we define as "Appalachia": WV, PA, OH, VA, NC, TN, KY
1976
Carter (297)- WV, PA, OH, NC, TN, KY
Ford (240)- VA
1980
Carter (49) - WV
Reagan (489) - PA, OH, VA, NC, TN, KY
1984
Reagan (525) - WV, PA, OH, VA, NC, TN, KY
Mondale (13)
1988
Bush (426) - PA, OH, VA, NC, TN, KY
Dukakis (111) - WV
1992
Clinton (370) - WV, PA, OH, TN, KY
Bush (168) - NC, VA
1996
Clinton (379) - WV, PA, OH, TN, KY
Dole (159) - NC, VA
2000
Bush (271) - WV, VA, OH, NC, TN, KY
Gore (266) - PA
2004
Bush (286) - WV, VA, OH, NC, TN, KY
Kerry (251) - PA
Appalachia goes with the winning candidate every time.
3. Obama peforms poorly in Appalachia
I say this as one of Obama's most strident supporters, because it is an issue that we MUST deal with coming up to the general election. Obama's poor performance has been well-documented by many people. For instance, while Obama won the state of Virginia by 29 points, he lost Appalachian Virginia (VA-09) by 32 points. Thats a swing of -61%. Thats bad news.
Some have tried to imply that Obama performs poorly because of Appalachian racism. Ignoring that an Arab American represents WV in Congress, and that Appalachia has a mixed and often progressive history on civil rights. And before I turn to statistics proving otherwise, I want to just acknowledge that racism is a worldwide problem, and has been since the beginning of recorded history. There are racists in Appalachia, and there are racists on Rodeo Drive and there are racists on Wall Street. Appalachia is no more racist than the demographics which form it. WVaBlue, makes a great point that today's primary in West Virginia perfectly reflects the demographics of West Virginia compared to previous primaries. It is a state tailor-made for Hillary Clinton.
Appalachia is not just some racist backwater, it is the key to electoral success in Presidential elections. So, Democrats, after the WV primary today, and the KY primary next Tuesday - y'all keep coming back. Appalachia has a lot to offer you, and in many ways we need your help. Appalachia has some of the highest poverty rates in the entire country, and a lot of those communities are being ripped apart by mountaintop removal coal-mining. But the Appalachian people are a good people, with an often progressive social history alongside with a relatively "conservative" culture to those outside the region.
4. So we need to help Obama improve his performance here
Whos coming with me?!
bonus...can you find the author?
Rahall is also a member of the NAACP and a devout Christian, in case anyone was wondering.
I'm from Appalachia, and unfortunately a great deal of the problem IS racial bias.
What is perplexing is that 8 out of 10 Americans think the country is heading in the wrong direction, yet white voters who have not finished college favor McCain over Obama (+22) or Hillary (+13) according to an AP poll. Maybe this will diminish after the primary is over. If it holds though, that diminishes Obama's chances of winning these Appalachian states. Is the degradation of the Republican brand powerful enough to turn that tide? Are energetic Obama supporters enough to turn that tide?
We'll see. It will be the most exciting campaign of my lifetime. I can't wait til the fall.
What is perplexing is that 8 out of 10 Americans think the country is heading in the wrong direction, yet white voters who have not finished college favor McCain over Obama (+22) or Hillary (+13) according to an AP poll.
We've got a superficial, provincial, easily frightened chunk of the electorate that consistently votes against its own best interests, economic and otherwise.
Here is a crazy theory:
Obama lost some votes in WV because people only know him through Fox spin.
Clinton won huge because she managed to turn out the Reagan Democrats.
Turnout was huge. Much larger than Democratic primaries of the past.
If she motivated voters who have been voting solidly Republican on social issues for the past several elections, there is a huge opportunity here.
Obama needs to address the Fox spin in appalachia, in person, and stress his working class and populist appeal factors. They need to know he is a Christian, he comes from a working family, he is an American, he will stand up for workers.
I was previously writing off West Virginia for the general election (it went for Bush big time), but Clinton has proven something - West Virginia can be a game changer in November. McCain is going to have trouble turning out the social agenda voters, and Obama may appeal to the fiscally conservative more than McCain does. We just need to get the message out there.